Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[waterloo01] 16/6/2018 09:56

Small piece in FT today@

Amryt Pharma
Amryt was formed less than three years ago but already has a product on the market and is generating revenues. Joe Wiley, who founded the company, said that, aware it would look to access the capital markets quickly for investment, it had “focused on being commercial from the get-go”.

Setting out to find “great assets which were perhaps under-appreciated or undervalued”, Amryt holds an exclusive license to sell Lojuxta across the EEA, Middle East, north Africa, Turkey and Israel. The drug treats a form of very high cholesterol, Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolaemia, which can cause heart attacks at the age of 12.

The disease affects between one and three people per million and in 2017 Amryt increased revenues for the product from €7m to just under €12m. It has chosen to invest those revenues in developing a number of products, including one undergoing late-stage trials for Epidermolysis Bullosa, a severe condition that can cause skin to peel off.

Shares in the company, which has a market cap of almost £47m, have fallen around 30 per cent in the past year to 16.13p as it awaits data from clinical trials. But Mr Wiley insisted: “Analysts covering us are saying: ‘Look, this business’s valuation is justified by Lojuxta alone.’”

[rathean] 15/6/2018 15:17

I've just added 15k at 16.2, modest top-up but heavily invested elsewhere. In for a penny and all that...

[papillon] 15/6/2018 12:14

Bronxville is continuing to DERAMP on the lse bb by posting that the price of Juxtapid/Lojuxta will be under pressure because the price of two cholesterol reducing drugs, Praluent (Alirocumab) & Repatha (Evolocumab) have been reduced.

However Lomitapide (Juxtapid in USA, Lojuxta in EU) doesn't work the same way as those two drugs and is specifically intended to treat patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH).

PS. Bronxville cites evidence that Aegerion sales of Juxtapid are down. That is true, but that could be because Aegerion were marketing it as a more general treatment for lowering cholestrol. They have been forced to stop doing that. To the best of my knowledge AMYT have only marketed Lojuxta for the treatment of HoFH.

PPS Anyway I very much doubt if AMYT get anywhere near the US$1,040 per day for Lojuxta, from the health services in the EU and rest of Europe, that Bronxville quotes for Juxtapid. The price of Lojuxta is negotiated with the relevent European health authorities.

[papillon] 14/6/2018 14:12

Classic bearish descending triangle formed on the AMYT chart. The bearish descending triangle started at the start of May and finished yesterday. Target share price from this bearish descending triangle is between 15.5p-16p. Will the share price go that low? We shall have to wait and see. If it does reach that target share price where then does the AMYT share price go? It wouldn't surprise me to see it test the 2016 low of just under 14p, but I haven't got a crystal ball so I can't be certain. Of course if the company released a good news RNS that would blow the bearish chart out of the water, but will it?

If it's any consolation to shareholders (it's NOT to me!) what is happening to the AMYT share price is characteristic of so many AIM shares in the absence of a continuing good newsflow. The share price gradually drifts sideways and ultimately lower, until it reaches a point where it becomes very cheap again and the bottom fishing buyers return. Until that point is reached the lack of news will cause small shareholders (and the odd larger one) to sell up out of boredom and put there money into the latest exciting high flier on AIM (and probably lose money on that as well!).

[rathean] 14/6/2018 07:31

TERN is a beauty, valued at over 100 million with worthless holdings in tiny cash guzzling tech startups. What we need here is some of their bod manipulative and misleading RNSs and army of rampers to mug PIs of their money.On second thoughts quite happy to sit and wait in quiet reverence. Plenty of day trade choices elsewhere.

[papillon] 13/6/2018 16:41

.......................

[papillon] 13/6/2018 16:13

Unfortunately AIM is the "Wild West" of the investing world. Full of rampers and pumpers & dumpers. Take TERN for istance. Around 6 months ago the share price was 2p and hardly anyone posted on the TERN bb's. TERN was a "dog with fleas"! This morning, after a series of rampastic announcements by the company, it continued to rocket upwards and hit 55p. Now, after the company was obliged to issue an official RNS saying it knew of no reason for the recent massive rise in the TERN share price it's back down to 34p. The TERN bb's are bursting at the seams with posters these days. I wouldn't touch TERN with a bargepole. It looks like a fantasy company to me that has attracted fantasist investors. TERN seems just like another CTAG to me. It will all end in tears, rather like CTAG did.

Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on your point of view, AMYT hasn't attracted the attention of the rampers and pumpers & dumpers. Though that could change if the company starts issuing a raft of good news.

[alphabravo321] 08/6/2018 15:11

Another little top up for me on these lows showing as a sell at 17.04

[shotgun42] 07/6/2018 09:14

Whoa there old chap, hold your camels!

I never said you were deramping. I said you were steering. Big difference.

The share price is a product of short term supply and demand. The chart tells the story of how we got here. Placing upset the mood and large seller brought the current value opportunity. Additionally I very much agree that the end of share trading restrictions for RTO insiders has probably been traded to; a known event.

I simply opined that currently now there's either a second seller, or established traders like paps are steering it now to accunulate, never outright deramping but sowing little seeds of doubt here and there to keep the trickle of sellers running for as long as they can.

Ball in play, not conspiracy, unless you're trying to discredit me as 'Fake News', now where's the laugh out loud smile in here?


All the very best,
SG42

[papillon] 06/6/2018 23:39

Shotgun42. This is what I posted 14 months ago. As you can see I've NEVER, EVER, changed my tune on AMYT. I NEVER, EVER, RAMP, OR DERAMP, AMYT. As you can see I'm NOT a "rudder" for this share. If I was I wouldn't express ignorance of what was going to happen to the share price I was happy back then because I was in profit!! I'm not so happy now because I'm NOT in profit!! I'm afraid you're barking up the wrong tree due to your ignorance of me and my situation. NB. The BoD, including Harry Stratford, did buy more shares in the September placing. A bullish sign, IMO. I tend to think many AIM listed shares are peddling a fantasy (some turn out to be downright frauds) and are just vehicles to extract funds from gullible PI's. I believe that NOT to be the case with AMYT. I believe the BoD genuinely want to grow AMYT into a successful biopharma company, otherwise I'd sell my shares now. I'm happy to hold, but would like to see the share price higher.

papillon 11 Apr '17 - 19:48 - 999 of 2966 Edit
0 1 0
I wonder where the share price will go tomorrow? Up, down, or sideways? Will we get further news? Will AMYT be re-rated? I've no idea. Just happy to hold and see what happens. I'm in profit so happy the way things are going..

The AMYT chart looks bullish, but charts are not infallible.

Would be nice to see more BoD buys, especially one by Harry Stratford. Would be even nicer to see another biotech/pharma take a stake. Who knows what will happen in the future?

[shotgun42] 06/6/2018 19:43

Been around enough to KnowTheGame, old bean. As no doubt you full well know, being the rudder man on this play.

Have the best one,
SG41

[papillon] 06/6/2018 19:12

"Such synchronicity could raise a chap's suspicions" Oh grow up, for Christ's sake, Shotgun42! Act your age. Not another conspiracy theorist? I've no idea who Rathean is, let alone his motives for posting. From what he says it sounds like he's an active share trader. That's the complete opposite to me. Basically, apart from tiny amounts of LOGP & PVR acquired recently as punts my only share is AMYT and even then I've only spent around £5k in total on FAST/AMYT. Anyway nobody takes much notice of what's posted anonymously on message boards, or bases their investment decisions on those posts. If they do they are NUTS and need their heads examined. Too many on these message boards rush to label other posters either rampers, or derampers, because they have different opinions to them. Of course there are blatant rampers (& derampers on these bb's). kirk 6 is one such blatant ramper for example.

I've been saying for a long time that I'm holding for the EASE interim trial results, AT LEAST, so what happens to the AMYT share price in the meantime is rather immaterial, though I suspect it COULD (I stress the word COULD) flatline in the meantime, but I stress that is just my GUESS. Just like you I KNOW NOTHING! I would like good news issued before those EASE phase III trials because like most PI's I'd much prefer to be seeing a profit on paper rather than a 15% loss as is currently the situation with my AMYT shares.

[shotgun42] 06/6/2018 18:26

I must say it's amazing how many voices are repeating the line about Amryt needing news and only likely to rise at the very tail end of summer. Such synchronicity could raise a chap's suspicions. Carl Jung had something to say about those meaningful coincidences, or so I believe.

Myself I'm occupied trying to work out whether a seller is still active or the ball is in play in someone else's court.

Can only blame the 2017 placing so far for fhe downtrend. Mr Friel's sale will have caused a drag this year but his shares seem to have found a home.

I think the odds are this is still 'in play' but there's also good possibility a second seller is active, or the threat thereof is a cause of caution in the market.

All the very best,
SG42

[papillon] 06/6/2018 16:10

Let's be honest. Buying and holding AMYT is a punt on good news being issued during what remains of 2018. We could have up to 3 pieces of good news issued, or we could have NONE!

We only have 3 options as PI's: Buy, sell, or hold.

I'm up for the gamble and am holding all of my shares until the EASE interim trial results are announced. I continue to hope that AMYT announce another Lojuxta type licensing deal before then, but I accept that could be unlikely.

[papillon] 06/6/2018 14:16

LOL. And I fell for your leg pull, Rathean.

"they have a compelling product line up, quality bod and have a growing revenue stream making this a safer bet than my usual pharma plays". AGREED!

"so here's hoping my speculative dabble bears fruit before the Autumn!" AGREED!

I have my fingers crossed that we get a very good news RNS and before the interim results RNS is issued. Failing that we have that interim results RNS in September & the "BIGGY" (EASE interim trial results) in early Q4 to look forward to. Effectively 3 tosses of the coin during what remains of 2018 including a (possible?) "wild card" very good news RNS before the interims result RNS.

AMYT is still a risky gamble, but a good one IMO.

[rathean] 06/6/2018 13:40

I was just pulling your leg pap, the reason I'm here being a short to medium term speculator is they have a compelling product line up, quality bod and have a growing revenue stream making this a safer bet than my usual pharma plays.Although having said that I don't tend to hang around beyond 3 months so here's hoping my speculative dabble bears fruit before the Autumn!

[papillon] 06/6/2018 10:57

On the contrary I agree with you rathean. I don't see anything in my post, last night, that could be classed as "enthusiasm". As I said in my post the AMYT chart is still bearish and has been BEARISH following last September's placing. I've mentioned that many times before. I said the AMYT chart went bearish when the falling 50 day EMA fell below the falling 200 day EMA. That's still the case. The AMYT share price is still below a falling 50 day EMA and 200 day EMA and it will probably stay that way unless we get this good news we are all praying for. I had hoped that AMYT would be re-rated without news, but that doesn't look like it's going to happen, but I live in hope. Rather like with the chart I posted a few days ago. The AMYT share price has broken out of a descending triangle, but the volume is low so my chart was more wishful thinking that any great expectation that the AMYT share price would start to rise towards the next resistance level at 20.3p. I was just clutching at straws!

I've always said AMYT is a gamble. However the fact that it already has a product it's selling, Lojuxta, makes it less of a gamble than many of it's AIM listed biotech peer group. However the failure to make a revenue forecast for Lojuxta for 2018 hasn't helped the AMYT share price

PS. Only one trade so far today. A sell of 98 shares @ 17.09p @ 8am. Was that you greendragon? LOL. :-)

[rathean] 06/6/2018 09:26

I admire your enthusiasm pap but I don't see anything other than a gentle downward trend until we get a strong RNS. Then I can see substantial capital gain, may even add more if the share price moves back to recent lows.

[papillon] 05/6/2018 20:23

So much for my chart last night! LOL. The AMYT chart is still bearish. We need a good RNS to be issued for the chart to turn bullish again.

[greendragon777] 05/6/2018 14:36

Not me anyway Paps. Might have gone to meet some of the other shareholders if the interims were out by now with positive results.

Will it be available to download at some stage I wonder?

[papillon] 05/6/2018 12:57

Re today's RNS. Anybody go to the AGM?

[papillon] 04/6/2018 23:08

An AMYT log chart. Am I clutching at straws, or have we a breakout from a descending triangle?


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com