Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[bazworth] 29/5/2018 12:15

The sales will come, I believe. AMRYT have been successful with their pre-existing areas so this will very probably follow through.

[papillon] 29/5/2018 10:48

Well someone liked the RNS enough to buy 112,150 shares @ 8:17am @ 17.25p and it pushed up the share price

sp needs to get above 18p, possibly by the end of the week.

[strangeman] 29/5/2018 10:20

At the end of the day, they still have to actually sell the stuff.

[rathean] 29/5/2018 08:57

It was good? No numbers attached so a positive but not rocking my World just yet.

[bazworth] 29/5/2018 07:58

Not one comment re the RNS, blimey.......!

[greendragon777] 26/5/2018 13:21

Wise decision Paps.... Cryptos are still unproven in many respects and we have still yet to see all the useless ICOs go to zero which probably applies to 95% of the alt coins. In other words there will be a proper bloodbath at some point down the line, I just hope IOTA won't be one of them!


PS- sorry for all the typos, I'm using a new keyboard on my phone and the auto complete is a little off kilter!

[papillon] 25/5/2018 19:19

LOL, bazworth. As a real life "old fella" if you still haven't reached "state pension age" then you're NOT an "old fella", bazworth, in my book. You're a young imposter! :-)

I wish you the best of luck with your Cryptos, greendragon, but I'm afraid it's a case of "you can't teach an old dog new tricks" :-)

[greendragon777] 25/5/2018 18:35

Haha.... We'll all have cause for celebration of AMYT scones good.

Thanks for the article on Cryptos Paps.... It's still going through a lot of turbulence. Whilst I'm long IOTA I decided to cash out when it last rallied a few weeks ago but I didn't get out at the top unfortunately ($2.46). Only reason I did it was too try interest my position which I managed to do but didn't catch the bottom either ($1.63).

Some announcements are imminent so hopefully that'll give it a shot in the arm, we'll see. I know you'll like a little flyer from time to time Paps..... Maybe you'll be tempted some day! Haha.

[bazworth] 25/5/2018 18:13

I’ll celebrate by doing something crazy, for an old fella that is. Hope it comes good before I get to state pension age....!! A mk4 Zimmer Turbo springs to mind!!

[papillon] 25/5/2018 18:01

If I do, bazworth, I'll celebrate by taking JimbobTechstock off my filter list on here and the lse bb and Bronxville on the lse bb.

[bazworth] 25/5/2018 17:41

Let’s all hope you make a killing!

[papillon] 25/5/2018 17:19

No bazworth. Regarding AMYT I live in hope of receiving really good news in 2018. Whether that's Lojuxta revenue figures released in the interim results in September, the interim EASE phase III trial results due to be released in early Q4 2018, other trial results for Episalvan for conditions other than EB, at any time, or a new licensing deal at, like that of Lojuxta, at any time. If that good news doesn't arrive before the middle of next month I have a decision to make; either close my T20, or buy the shares. I'll base my decision on the AMYT chart. Fingers crossed I wont lose money if I decide to close :-)

PS I can't remember whether my T20 was for £600, or £500. It was one, or the other. If I do buy the shares I'll be up towards circa £6k invested in AMYT shares. Still not a lot of money, but above my original limit of £5k maximum!

[bazworth] 25/5/2018 16:55

What’s that then Paps, you drawing a line under it....?!!

[papillon] 25/5/2018 13:54

Edit: 4.50pm. All quiet on the AMYT front again today. Bought my £2 lucky dip lottery ticket for tonight's Euro Millions draw for a bit of excitement! Splashing the cash! LOL.

[papillon] 24/5/2018 20:19

There were good rises today for some AIM listed biotechs. Three figure in the list of the 25 best risers today. N4P was up 22%, FARN up 18% & EVG up 10.4%.

They all rose today on no news. N4P has been strong this year rising to well over 30p earlier this year. FARN is a special case, dropping to 106p yesterday after the big fall earlier this month on the disappointing phase III trial result. EVG has also performed strongly this year.

Perhaps AMYT might benefit in the coming days from this feel good factor today for biotechs? FINGERS CROSSED as usual. One thing I've learned over the years is you can't predict share prices. I live in hope that I'll show a profit on my T20.

EDIT. Lower Bollinger Band is at 16.5p & the Upper Bollinger Band is at 17.6p. Is a rise up towards the Upper Bollinger Band on the cards? We'll see.

[jimbobtechstock] 24/5/2018 19:16

@waterloo01 EMA has been flexible in the past regarding ultra-rare diseases, see how the Lojuxta license was gained with only partial profile.

And as I keep saying, because there is already an approval for AP101 (Episalvan) it tips the balance because there is a known safety profile. If clinicians are offering even anecdotal evidence this is a similar route to the FDA 'real world evidence reporting' path in the 21st Century Cures Act, where evidence from clinicians for off-label prescribing can be used to bolster the case for an expansion to an existing MA.

[waterloo01] 24/5/2018 19:11

All interesting stuff although I would say it's stretching it a bit to call some limited compassionate use an 'open trial'. Certainly by my understanding. More anecdotal evidence.

[papillon] 24/5/2018 18:57

Many thanks, sidam.

This is from the final results RNS (issued on the 17/4/2018) for the year ending 31/12/2017:

"Cash balances totalled €20.5m at 31 December 2017 (2016: €8.3m), with €10m undrawn from the European Investment Bank facility"

Hence at the start of 2018 AMYT had 20.5m Euro's of cash with 10m undrawn from the EIB loan. That gives a total cash of 30.5m Euro's available for 2018 + 2019. So if, as you state, the cash burn will INCLUDE the Lojuxta gross profit AMYT will be short of around 4 to 5m Euro's by the end of 2019. Not a large amount of money.

[sidam] 24/5/2018 18:07

The open label study is the use of Ap101 in TENS. Management said that a doctor (I think female) was using imulan to treat her patients and asked if she could have some AP101. This has been supplied on compassionate grounds. It is open label because it is not blind and her patients are being treated, there is no placebo in a control group.

I have not watched the UKIS, so I can not tell you if it is the same, but my description I hope is correct and therefore you can check for yourselves.

The estimated Cash Burn should be the amount of cash utilised by the business. It will include all gross profit, all costs including any that are capitalised, capital expenditure and changes in working capital. So it should include all lojuxta costs.

The company has some cash and the undrawn facility. However that is not enough to finance the cash outflow in 2019. So it will need to raise equity or cash before the accounts for 2018 are published or those accounts will have a going concern audit opinion.

That said there are alternatives. AP101(eb) could be licenced for Japan. Earlier, management indicated they would prefer a higher upfront payment and lower royalties as this would mean less dilution. The amount of cash to be raised will depend on whether they can sell some rights and the timing of AP101(eb) marketing. If that were 2021 as per Davy, then another year’s cash would be needed.

I know what I would like, assuming AP101 is successful. That would be an offer to shareholders of a convertible with a conversion price of say 25p. I think that would get away. Would reduce dilution and I would love the income in my pension fund and ISA.

I hope I have answered all questions, but come back if you want to.

[papillon] 24/5/2018 17:31

Well there was either a rollover, or bed & ISA, of 59,241 shares @ 16.87p this afternoon.

[jimbobtechstock] 24/5/2018 16:44

And €10m to undrawn from the EIB loan. As per the annual report there was a variation on the original terms of the loan to remove a dependency in the original loan agreement on AP102 trial starting in order to unlock the second tranche:

New terms are (from latest annual report)

"In October 2017, the terms of the second
tranche of €5m were amended by the
EIB so the Group has the option to draw
this amount down any time it wishes.
The Group had not drawn down this
second tranche of €5m as at 31 December
2017. The third tranche is conditional on
the primary clinical endpoints for the
EASE Phase III clinical trials in the US or
EU being achieved and therefore it can
be concluded that the Phase III clinical
trial has been successfully completed. "


So can add €5m on top of the cash balance.

Additionally I expect the delay or deprioritisation of AP102 may have a +ve effect on the cash burn. I'm not sure what the reasons are behind the delay but it makes sense if the company is now focusing on Episalvan that such a small company postpones AP102 for a while, especially as they now have the very interesting AP103. Also they have now acquired the som research conducted by Dr Harris over the last year as part of the court settlement so I assume they want to use that to direct any further updates to AP102 strategy.

[papillon] 24/5/2018 16:31

Many thanks for an excellent, informative, post, sidam. It all sounds very positive!!

AMYT had 20.3m Euro's at 31/12/2017.

Shore estimate cash burn at 14.5m + 19.6m = 34.4m Euro's for 2018+2019

Davy estimate cash burn at 16.6m + 17.6m = 34.2m Euro's for 2018+2019

Revenue from Lojuxta for 2018 + 2019 could equal that cash burn for 2018+2019.
of course there would be the cost of Lojuxta sales. Do you know, sidam, if Davy & Shore include the cost of Lojuxta sales in their cash burn figures? Even if they don't and you deduct 55% of Lojuxta sales revenue as the cost of sales in 2018+2019 AMYT might still have available cash at the end of 2019, though it would be a bit tight. Also I can't remember if AMYT have yet drawn down the 2nd 10m Euro tranche from the EIB loan. If they have yet to draw down that 10m Euro's AMYT will definitely have cash remaining by the end of 2019.

Any thoughts on that, sidam? tia.

[jimbobtechstock] 24/5/2018 16:11

sidam - thank you very much for taking time to contribute. As per Bermudashorts I'd be interested to hear about the Open Label studies - are these possibly the 'small scale proof of concept clinical trial' mentioned in the UKIS presentation (about 14:45 in )?

I know EMA has accommodated many orphans under 'exceptional circumstances' approval, but in the UKIS presentation it was made to sound like there was a way to launch under the PTW existing approval. I'm not familiar with how a 'proof of concept' trial could be used to augment the existing MA but it makes sense on a rational level if can show the conditions are similar to (or sub0-classes of) a PTW.

(Incidentally I do feel that all the noise of late on the BBs, especially raking up the Aegerion situation and getting me researching the Harris case has detracted from proper discussion of the science and business - maybe even that's not accidental!)