Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 20/5/2018 16:30

Well looking at the AMYT chart there is strong chart support around 17.30p. Currently the share price is resting on that support. Will that support hold? I'm tempted to have a little top up, but I don't want too much money tied up in, what is, a speculative AIM share even though the company appears well managed. Heart vs Head. I'll have to decide soon.

[papillon] 20/5/2018 12:46

Well if AMYT don't make a Lojuxta revenue forecast for 2018 in the meantime, JimbobTechstock, we'll soon see the figures for the first 6 months of 2018 when the interim results are released, presumably in early September like last year. So only around 14 weeks to wait for the figures. Not a long time.

We need to see an RNS about Harris & the implications of the court case judgement. We can surmise all we want, but we need to see the facts presented in an RNS.

PS. Luckily the Bod & management of AMYT seem very proactive. That's a big positive in my book. They quickly responded to the Scioderm bad phase III result by contacting Amicus to analyse the Scioderm trial data and hence make adjustments to the EASE phase III trial to increase the chances of success. That's being proactive. They are also being proactive in regards to Lojuxta by signing up new distributors and agreeing with Novelion (Aegerion) to increase the license area. Again, irrespective of how sales are going in the existing license area, that is being proactive in my opinion.

PS Bronxville is a very, very, bitter man because he made a big loss when he sold his AMYT shares, having, with the benefit of hindsight, vastly overpaid for his FAST shares. He gambled and lost and needs someone to blame, when the only one to blame is himself! If you can't take a loss on the chin, without becoming bitter, then don't buy AIM listed shares is my motto.

[jimbobtechstock] 20/5/2018 10:39

Interesting Pap you make a similar point to your nemesis over on LSE about revenue figures for Lojuxta.

I will repost a similar argument I made back then.

We got numbers for Q1 last year because they helped form a view as to how the first full year under AMYT stewardship would pan out.

We didn't get numbers for Q1 this year because the recent expansion of 5 new distribution agreements were signed towards the end of the last period into the start of this period.

If anything numbers for Q2 or even Q3 might be more interesting as it will have given time for those new distributors to have done some local sales exercises.

Also of immediate interest to me at least is this settlement of the case against Harris.

I put an image of the PDF of the court order on Twitter:


Large:


Interesting Harris is injuncted against owning more than 2% of companies engaged in som development, does that apply to Amryt, and will he have to sell, or has he sold (was on 3.51%)? Or have the shares been forfeited as part of the Settlement Agreement?

Also interesting, "The parties have signed a settlement and Rights Assignment agreement" - what rights, assigned to whom? Clearly not to Harris as he's injuncted by this order. Has Harris' work of the last year been assigned to #AMYT I wonder? Would be a win if so.

[bazworth] 20/5/2018 10:21

I believe patience will pay!

[papillon] 20/5/2018 10:13

You make a good case, JimbobTechstock, for a re-rating of AMYT. I still think the share price will be driven up by good news (or the perception of good news), just like any other AIM share and we will have to wait for that good news to be released via RNS. It would help the share price if AMYT issued a revenue forecast for Lojuxta for 2018, like they did for 2017. I know they have recently signed up new distributors and recently expanded their license area for Lojuxta, but the lack of a revenue forecast makes me wonder if there is no revenue growth for Lojuxta compared to 2017 for the areas they were selling in, in 2017. If I had gone to that presentation on Thursday this is the question I would have asked; where's the revenue forecast for Lojuxta for 2018?

I agree, bazworth, that AMYT are going about things the right way. Too many AIM listed shares are just vehicles to enrich the BoD, promoters & advisors at the expense of gullible PI's; some turn out to be downright frauds. I don't think AMYT comes into either category. I believe that the BoD are trying to grow AMYT into a top class biotech specialising in "orphan" treatments and I believe they will prove to be successful. However news (and the perception of news) drives AIM share prices and we will just have to be patient and wait for that news to be released.

[bazworth] 20/5/2018 08:47

Have to say that I’m truly befuddled! From what I see, AMYT haven’t put a foot wrong and continue to grow sales etc. I continue to hold, probably too many, but do think this will come good at some time, hopefully not too far away!!

[jimbobtechstock] 20/5/2018 07:53

I don't think they overpaid for Birken, given Episalvan was approved for PTW prior to the buyout. Could argue that the Amryt strategy of refraining from commercialising under the existing approval in pursuit of rare and orphan uses was not working, but the price action was unstable, we saw the see-saw dips and recovery. Would argue if the market really thought it overpriced then it would be a proper pullback.

I think given what we know now, about the end of the lock-up and all selling restrictions in April and the case against Harris working on a rival to AP102 - now subject to a court injunction - explains the price action.

I found some historical shorts against Fastnet but dating back too far, 2012.

Personally I think recent action dating back 9 months or so is a specific play against the known seller(s).

Fundamentally it should be an exciting time now and yet the BBs plagued with noise and deramps.

2 new BOD members, one regulatory and one product/sales/marketing focussed, followed by repeated statements about exploring potential commercialisation opportunities under the existing PTW European MA.

Really the question for me is why is the online discussion not focussing on this fact? Especially against the backdrop of growing Lojuxta sales and approaching EASE interim readout after the inclusion refinement thanks to the dataset gifted by Amicus.

[shotgun42] 20/5/2018 06:19

Couple of friends in an investment group I belong to were looking very closely at Amryt and asked my opinion.

Tend to avoid these places after the spats I witnessed over the years, unless something needs saying and something untowards is going on with the posting here. Something between the Bronx and Yorkville. Quite a coincidence that! Given where that summons was filed? Or am I reading too much into a name?

[papillon] 19/5/2018 22:41

I think the reason, Shotgun, why the AMYT share price fell from the 24p placing price (though on the day it listed it did, very temporarily, hit an intraday high in the mid thirties) to sub 14p around 6 months later was because AMYT was very over priced @ 24p. So perhaps AMYT was ripe for shorting from the 24p placing price. AMYT had obviously overpaid for Birken and the 24p placing price was excessive. Only the good news of the Lojuxta licensing deal & 20m Euro EIB loan issued in early December 2016 reversed the downtrend. 6 months later and the share price peaked at circa 27p following on from a good Lojuxta revenue forecast for 2017. However the newsflow since then has been generally perceived to be negative (especially the 20p placing announced in September 2017), hence the share price has gradually fallen to where it currently is. Good news drives share prices up and that has been in short supply for the past 12 months. The 6 months delay in the AP101 phase III trial results announced 2 months ago has further dampened sentiment. The absence of a Lojuxta revenue forecast, for whatever reason, for 2018 hasn't helped the AMYT share price

Unless there is another Lojuxta type licensing deal announced in the meantime and/or a bullish Lojuxta revenue forecast for 2018 I'm afraid the AMYT share price could drift, IMO, until we get nearer the phase III interim results forecast by the company for early Q4 2018.

PS: The lowest FAST share price was circa 2p achieved in 2015. Taking into a/c the 8 for 1 consolidation the current AMYT share price is only just a whisker above 2p. Basically the AMYT share price has gone nowhere compared to the low point of the FAST share price

PPS. Your previous post, Shotgun, was made on the 23/10/15. Why the gap of over 30 months between posts? Why post on AMYT as it's not widely followed? Are you keen on the company? I am. I hope my confidence turns out to be correct! :-)

[shotgun42] 19/5/2018 20:19

Thanks for clarifying.

BTW has anyone had a really good look at the full chart for AMYT? I find it quite interesting how easy the 24p fund raise got beaten down in the first 6 months, with a volatile expanding wedge (broadening bottom) chart. Bears didn't win the battle, but didn't give up.

You mention the RTO of Fastnet with reference to disgruntled shareholders but another avenue to look at would be any trapped shorts from the time of the RTO. Only a market maker could hide anything significant without notifying a short interest greater than 0.5% and there is quite a few MM on the book here.

Who could blame them for sitting short on Fastnet, but what if they didn't close on RTO? Some could have been short below 24p (post consolidation), closing in the dips and causing the bounce and volatile expanding wedge pattern?

Just a thought. It's been 2 years now and with study review due any time from October if there is still a shorter here they'll be getting itchy.

[papillon] 19/5/2018 14:48

Bronxville
Posts: 243
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 17.35
RE: Friel's buy...32p in today's m..Today 00:00 £692,000 in Friels cold hard cash spent.
Why is he selling at .17 now?
Why Open Orphan?

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True, Bronxville, but what you're CONVENIENTLY FORGETTING is he only bought 2.6m AMYT shares @ 32p (via the 20.8m FAST shares he bought @ 4p) OUT OF A TOTAL of 33m AMYT shares he held until he sold 8.38m recently @ 17p.

It's easy enough to check, but I suspect that FRIEL'S AVERAGE COST per AMYT share was MUCH LESS THAN 10p, Bronxville, since many of his 33m AMYT shares were acquired for NEGLIGABLE (or ZERO) cost due to his being one of the founders of AMYT.

HENCE, Bronxville, I suspect Friel could sell ALL of his 33m shares @ 17p and still make a magnificent profit. I wouldn't be surprised if he doubled his money (at least) @ 17p compared to his AVERAGE buying price.

You need to stop prattling on about the shares Friel bought @ the equivalent of 32p because it was only a small percentage of his 33m shares and the AVERAGE cost to him would likely be less than 10p. Lots of LOVE, papillon! :-)

PS. I see Bronxville has filtered me. Not that I'm worried as I don't post on the lse bb's.

PPS. Bronxville is digging up as much dirt as he can, even if the link to AMYT is tenuous. Good luck to him, because no one will take the slightest notice of him. NEWS drives share prices, not anonymous posters on bb's.

Will the AMYT share price go towards £1, or 1p, during the next 12 months? IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE NEWS AMYT RELEASES AND WHETHER INVESTORS BELIEVE THAT NEWS, OR NOT. I can GUARANTEE that Bronxville will have absolutely NO influence on the direction of the AMYT share price over the next 12 months. Bronxville is SORE with Friel & AMYT because he bought FAST shares at a high price and consequently LOST a lot of his money when he bailed out of AMYT. That's understandable. He's a VERY SORE LOSER!

[papillon] 18/5/2018 23:13

Bronxville
Posts: 239
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 17.35
A little memory loss Paps Today 21:35 11/8/2015
21:37 papillon: Friel could be feathering his nest, Asturius101, but he's showing a funny old way of going about it since he paid
almost double the price recently to acquire over 18m FAST shares (he paid 4p per share when the then share price was 2.25p)!!

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Sorry Bronxville. There's NOTHING wrong with my memory! However there is something wrong with yours! You're NOT using your little grey cells. Cathal Friel had just over 33m AMYT shares. He has sold 8.38m and now has circa 24.67m.



Cathal Friel ended up with 39.75m shares in FAST in July 2015 after buying circa 20.85m FAST shares @ 4p (4p was then a very large percentage premium to the then quoted FAST sp). He bought those shares to stop the owners from blocking his bid to turn FAST into a biotech via an RTO. He had to pay way over the odds. I know all this because I bought my first FAST shares early in 2015 because of the large percentage discount that the shares were trading at compared to their cash.





If you divide those 20.85m FAST shares by 8 you get the the equivalent number of AMYT shares that, in practice, Friel paid 32p for. That works out at circa 2.6m AMYT shares that, in effect, Friel paid 32p for.

Yet until the start of this month Friel had just over 33m AMYT shares. Hence the AMYT shares he paid the equivalent of 32p for was less than 10% of his total holding!! Yet you, Bronxville, in your posts like to give the impression that all of Friel's AMYT shares cost the equivalent of 32p. WHY, is the question I ask? Is it because your memory is failing, or are you deliberately muddying the waters by giving a false impression?

Even if you take the total number of FAST shares that Friel held (39.75m) and then convert them into AMYT shares (divide by 8) you get circa 5m AMYT shares. Yet Friel had just over 33m AMYT shares. Hence the total FAST shares held by Friel when converted into AMYT shares only comprised around 15% of his total holding in AMYT shares.

In other words, Einstein (sorry, Bronxville) circa 28m of Friel's total holding of circa 33m AMYT shares (around 85%) had NO connection with his holding in FAST.

So, in effect, Cathal Friel has sold 8.38m AMYT shares @ 17p from the 28m he acquired directly in AMYT (not via FAST). Some of those 28m shares were founders shares (and were no doubt acquired at no, or negliable, cost), whilst the remainder were acquired via the original placing. However members of the "concert party" (of which Friel was obviously one) did NOT pay 24p for their shares. They got their shares at a sizeable discount. Circa 16p was the price they paid. So by selling 8.38m AMYT shares @ 17p Cathal Friel has still made a profit (if the shares he sold could be considered to be "founders" shares then he made almost all profit because they were acquired at no, or negligable, cost to him). Presumably when he comes to sell his remaining 24.67m shares he will hope to make another profit. If the AMYT share price is above 32p when he next sells some (in 12 months time) he will definitely make a profit on them!!. :-)

PS. You really must start posting the whole story, Bronxville and not just that part of the story that suits your agenda. You asked JimbobTechstock "You wouldn't happen to know (Cathal) personally would you." The funny thing is I was thinking of asking you the same question, but about Joe Wiley! LOL. I have wondered if you knew him and had a grudge against him. :-)

[papillon] 18/5/2018 18:43

Bronxville
Posts: 236
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 17.35
RE: Derampers Today 17:32 So you are telling us that its a good thing that one of the founders of Amryt is selling below 2 capital raise levels?...and has the audacity to create a new company directly in competition to the company he founded 2 year ago..

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Oh, Bronxville. Friel sold circa 8,3m shares (around a third of his shares). As one of the founders of AMYT I suspect he paid nothing (or next to nothing) for these circa 8.3m shares so he undoubtedly made a very large profit on the sale of those shares. He did sign an additional lock-in and orderly market agreement covering 2 years for the remainder of his shares. Would he do that if he agreed with you that AMYT was a "mess"? I somehow doubt it. Would AMATI have bought those circa 8.3m shares from Friel if they thought AMYT was a mess? I somehow doubt it!

You are not using "your little grey cells", Bronxville.

[papillon] 18/5/2018 18:00

Another well researched, excellent, post from JimbobTechstock

jimbobtechstock
Posts: 6,988
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 17.35
Settlement Today 16:58 If any of the derampers on here could cough up 40cents between them and had the nous to sign up for a PACER account they could read the full settlement agreement:

- settlement agreement reached (terms not disclosed)
- injunction preventing Harris working on AP102 and any similar product which would be in breach of the anticompete until 4th Dec 2020, also preventing Harris owning or investing in such a company *except* where it is less than 2% of a publicly traded co.

So looks like Amryt got what they wanted out of this. Not sure whether RNS on Monday to describe outline of the settlement or whether will remain confidential

[papillon] 18/5/2018 13:57

Link posted by Notperfect on the lse bb:



Court sase closed & dismissed.

EDIT: The link states that "This action is dismissed with prejudice".

"In the formal legal world a court case that is dismissed with prejudice means that it is dismissed permanently. A case dismissed with prejudice is over and done with, once and for all, and can't be brought back to court. A case dismissed without prejudice means the opposite. It's not dismissed forever."

Both AMYT and Alan Harris have to pay their own costs and attorneys fees. I wonder how much this will cost AMYT?

[papillon] 18/5/2018 13:50

Someone has ROLLED OVER 125k at the bid price (17p) this morning. Reporting was delayed.

[papillon] 18/5/2018 12:22

"Personally myself I'm very disappointed in this management and BOD.
So many unanswered questions now which is borderline corrupt keeping shareholders in the dark.Wiley should address these now!
As for light volume I have seen many come to life but if I had a guess of 8p or .80p I would say 8p."
"Plus theres little point in seliing something if your cost of sales are going to devour your profits"

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The above has been posted by Bronxville on the lse bb.

Unfortunately you are WRONG, Bronxville. If you REALLY believe the company is being "borderline corrupt" and the share price is more likely to hit 8p than 80p THEN YOU SHOULD SELL YOUR AMYT SHARES IMMEDIATELY. Why wait until your investment shows a big loss? Better to take a small loss now than a far, far, bigger loss in the future!!

I'm NOT saying you are wrong in your prognosis. After all everyone is entitled to their opinion and yours is just as valid as that of the bulls. However if you REALLY believed what you are posting (and I don't believe you do) then you would sell immediately. I believe you like a good moan (like Victor Meldrew) because the share price is not going up.

PS. Your moan about being "kept in the dark" is a typical moan on most of these advfn & lse bb's when the share price of the company is going nowhere. Everyone one wants to know what is going on within a company, but very few are forthcoming. After all we are only PI's; we are not on the BoD.

PPS. Those AIM companies that do issue RNS's like confetti are the ones most likely to turn out to be fraudulent in my experience.

[papillon] 18/5/2018 12:03

I see we have a new DERAMPER on the lse bb called sheppy. He became a new member of the lse TODAY and has so far made 2 posts both on AMYT. LOL. What a coincidence!

Evidently us AMYT shareholders are all deluded amateurs, according to sheppy. LOL. Well I have news for sheppy; he is also a deluded amateur when it comes to deramping! There are far more professional derampers than him on these bb's.

I wonder what made him join the lse today and then decide to post on AMYT out of all of the shares listed on AIM? Perhaps it's because it's the only one whose investors are deluded amateurs? :-) LOL.

[papillon] 18/5/2018 11:17

Come on, OWN UP! Who sold those 125 shares this morning @ 17.07p? LOL

Just one trade so far today and that was a sell for a paltry 125 shares! Last night's presentation obviously went down a storm last night! LOL. I think NOT!

PS Perhaps the seller of that 125 shares was at the presentation last night and was disappointed with what he heard? LOL. Seriously these presentations are a complete waste of time. Only good news will attract buyers and drive up the share price

[papillon] 17/5/2018 23:47

That would be nice, bazworth. At the start of this year I was hoping for that "enormous whoosh" to happen in 2018, but now with the final EASE trial results postponed to next year I've reduced my expectation for 2018 from an "enormous whoosh" to simply a "whoosh"! :-) I was keeping my fingers crossed that my investment might 5-bag to a £1 by the end of the year. Now I've set my sights much lower for 2018.

[papillon] 17/5/2018 23:31

I'm not expecting tonight's presentation to have much, if any, influence on the share price going by previous presentations, greendragon. Still one lives in hope.

I can see the share price slumbering during the summer months. Unless the company announce another licensing deal and/or issue a 2018 revenue forecast for Lojuxta (why haven't they? They did for 2017) then we will have to be very patient and wait for the EASE interim results to be issued, as forecast, early in Q4 2018.

[bazworth] 17/5/2018 23:24

One day we will have the most enormous whoosh!