Amryt Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[bermudashorts] 24/5/2018 15:28

sidam - thanks for taking time and trouble to post your thoughts. Just a quick question, what open label study for AP101 are you referring to?

[jimbobtechstock] 24/5/2018 11:59

Turning point for Amyrt, not sure what I said yesterday to upset pap so much but I can't see it warrants a slap, albeit virtual. Clearly touched a nerve though. Busted the double-act and posted some possibilities - not fact, and neither were they "conspiracy theory", just possibilities. Possibilities that there's a short trading play in action, possibly around the EASE trial and the delay announced in March, possibly combined with the end of the trading restrictions in April.

And then possibly that Pap is short and needs to close up. And that made his blood boil! Too close to the truth, possibly, because I for one only find my blood boils when my proverbial is on the chopping block and the axe is falling!

[papillon] 24/5/2018 11:38

I'm thinking of doing what you did Shotgun42. I'm seriously thinking of ceasing to post on this bb. Maybe even stop reading the AMYT bb's altogether? I've got JimbobTechstock filtered on here & the lse bb, plus Bronxville filtered on the lse bb for spiteful deramping.

I was spitting blood yesterday after what JimbobTechstock posted. I wanted to grab hold of him and give him a right hander, but unfortunately he's safe behind his anonymity. Reading these bb's can make my blood boil, especially when you get conspiracy theorists like JimbobTechstock talking out of their ar*ses and making accusations without any proof whatsover just because it suits their agenda.

[shotgun42] 24/5/2018 11:12

Seen it all before, unfortunately. One man's conspiracy is another's bread and butter in this game. share price looking depressed and derampers out usually means only one thing but the market has been known to surprise from time to time.

Interesting point made about Woldquant, Followed the Quantum Pharma/Clinigen deal and wq very active shorting in the run up. Also as noted IMM, which had a curious rerate about 6 months before readout. Wq shorts only declared in 2018 though.

Worldquant responsible for around 5% of shorts in London by position count last time I checked so easy target, might not be them. In fact highly likely there's no significant short open, my experience these kind of plays tend to rely on bursts of shorting to kill momentum, supplemented of course by negative sentiment posted on boards like this!

All the very best,
SG42

[papillon] 24/5/2018 10:13

We could have a little double bottom about to form on the AMYT chart, alphabravo321 since the share price was at the current level at the start of May. If a double bottom does form (the share price would need to rise above 18p again for it to form) then a rise to 19p-20p could be on the cards. I could be clutching at straws. Only time will tell.

[papillon] 24/5/2018 10:07

JimbobTechstock24 May '18 - 09:37 - 2893 of 2894 (Filtered)

JimbobTechstock24 May '18 - 09:39 - 2894 of 2894 (Filtered)

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Unusually for me, alphabravo321, I splashed out last week buying £600 of AMYT shares on a T20. I thought the 17.30p support would hold and was hoping that we could soon get a rise up to the 20.3p resistance level so I could close around the middle of June with a nice little profit. It might still happen. The share price is still hovering just under that 17.3p support. I've set myself a stop loss and will sell if the share price drops below 16p and take the circa £100 loss on the chin. Hopefully it wont come to that.

[jimbobtechstock] 24/5/2018 09:39

The AI trading angle BTW I think may have something to do with the string of smaller trades popping up from time to time here, for months now, as well as the odd spread at times (pushing buying into the lower half of the spread) as well as the odd patterns on stochastics and MACD, all of which can indicate something in play.

[jimbobtechstock] 24/5/2018 09:37

Amount of deramping, especially on LSE, would indicate that someone actively wants the negative message out there.

Only unknown is whether it's a bitter individual, maybe back from RTO or before, or a shorter. Because few others would be motivated to keep posting like that.

If it's a short there's nothing on the FCA register so it's either undeclared (overseas), hidden behind some form of single stock future or held by a MM.

Whilst MM have exception for short reporting, up to about 10% each, I think, this only applies for "market making purposes" so they may have accidentally run short expecting Cathal Friel's sale to hit the free float.

Alternatively it might be a play around the known EASE recruitment (I heard it was slow as early as December) maybe with the perfect storm approaching given the end of selling restrictions on RTO shareholders in April.

The latter sounds to be World Quant territory, where junior traders have to pitch increasingly elaborate trading strategies that are supplemented with AI driven not only by market trading but also bulletin board posting etc.

Have found with WQ in particular that those traders coming up with the strategy are then on a bonus depending on how lucrative the strategy is. Apparently they have been known to cheer on their strategy on BBs.

Have a read about World Quant. Sure others are doing it but WQ were known to be active on IMM, another AIM biotech, prior to data readout with a declared short position. But as I said no declared position here - which may mean nothing as maybe a declared short is just one they wanted us to see (on IMM).

Eyes wide open. Not everything is as it seems.

[bazworth] 24/5/2018 08:22

Very tempting isn’t it??!!

[alphabravo321] 24/5/2018 08:14

Little top up for me on the lows...

[jimbobtechstock] 23/5/2018 16:14

Btw I've never held a share before where 3 separate IDs have contacted me to offer advice on AMYT. Pretty similar words used in one DM 'I've decided to take a break because I don't think it will move over summer, perhaps nearer to the interim readout'

Same with a guy on AMYT twitter group. Won't move till Q4, apparently.

I don't know who's running the show but looks to me like a trade based solely on the EB EASE trial progress, with shorts opened when it became known recruitment was slow (around Christmas I was told that, so sure the traders will have got wind if I'd heard)

Whoever concocted this strategy overlooked Lojuxta and also the potential to launch Episalvan under existing MA.

I know there could also have been a play to catch Cathatl's shares as low as possible but timing might suggest EASE as the main play.

Anyway, good luck to you. Deramping will kill sentiment a bit and help stem upwards momentum but at the end of it all you still have to close up

[jimbobtechstock] 23/5/2018 16:03

Clearly you just answered my unasked question as to whether you're a holder or not. Good luck sourcing the 4million shares you need.

[papillon] 23/5/2018 15:10

"So if the cynical posters are still holders it's in your own best interests to be a little less downbeat in public."

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As if, JimbobTechstock, anyone is going to take any notice of what I post on a bb! Don't make me laugh! No one ever takes any notice of what I post on this bb. Why do I post? Well it's not to influence people; I'm neither a ramper, or deramper. I just enjoy expressing my opinion. That's all.

Let's be fair your posts are very bullish on AMYT's prospects (and I don't disagree with the content of your posts as I to am bullish on AMYT's prospects), but have they had any positive effect on the AMYT sp? OF COURSE NOT!

Did Bronxville's negative posts on AMYT have any effect on the AMYT sp? Of course NOT!

WE need a good news RNS to be issued. That will attract the buyers and momentum traders (pumpers & dumpers). Unfortunately until AMYT issue that good news RNS AMYT will continue to be relatively anonymous and the share price will drift.

I'm continuing to hold for the results of the EASE phase III trial results.

PS. The current low AMYT sp, whilst we are awaiting news, has it's benefits so don't knock it. It enables those holders who want a cheap top up to do so in the safe knowledge that AMYT is woefully undervalued at the current price! AMYT have an excellent, proactive, BoD who are going about building a successful biotech. One day the share price will reflect that! Patience is required.

[bazworth] 23/5/2018 14:26

JimbobTechstock

I’m every bit as bemused as you! I’m very happy to hold tight and see this story play out. We have fingers in numerous pies, something will start the upward momentum at some time, hopefully reasonably soon and before I’m too old to enjoy the spoils....!

[jimbobtechstock] 23/5/2018 14:11

Wouldn't even say unexpected news. They set their stall out re the strategy revamp, exploring potential earlier commercialisation of AP101/Episalvan under the existing EU marketing approval. That's one potential news avenue not backed up behind the EB trial interim readout. There's all the US progress towards IND, and potentially also looking at replicating the EU MA with the FDA. There's this new gene therapy platform, now being called AP103...

And of course the interims due late Q3 ahead of trial readout, should show further Lojuxta promise.

I just don't get the negativity here. Sure, the share price has been bashed into the floor over the last year, and yes that does cause many SHs to leave and others to become cynical, but it also provides a value entry point for new investors.

So if the cynical posters are still holders it's in your own best interests to be a little less downbeat in public.

And if they are shorters then nothing we can do about it but wait until they have to pull their shorts and then maybe take some profits once they're gone.

[bermudashorts] 23/5/2018 13:40

Papillon - re. no. 3, do you mean biotech fund?

Anyway, we shall see - plenty of potential for unexpected news here which could have a positive effect on share price

[papillon] 23/5/2018 13:21

The AMYT share price is going nowhere, IMO, until Q4 2018 (interim EASE results released), UNLESS they issue the following news in the meantime 1/ they announce another Lojuxta type licensing deal, or 2/ They announce a bullish Lojuxta type revenue forecast, or 3/ A large biotech starts buying a stake in AMYT.

I think the chances of 1/, 2/, or 3/ happening are slim, but you never know. Fingers crossed!

[jimbobtechstock] 23/5/2018 13:18

Apparently that is the case. I have it on very good authority that the Nomad believes AP102, at early stage, is minor compared to the developments with Lojuxta and AP101. I'm also told that the case itself is a relatively minor matter, affecting only research (no attempts to commercialise) in breach of non-compete and license so the case itself was not price sensitive (hence no RNS) and the conclusion, in AMYT's favour, was also not price sensitive and I just get the feeling everyone wants to forget about this now and focus on the work going forwards.

Really interesting post from BermudaShorts on LSE, with all the work ongoing on AP101 both on the EB stream and potential non-EB uses within existing MA it's quite clear that company feels this little spat with Dr Harris is nothing more than a distraction.

[papillon] 23/5/2018 13:12

Harris obviously hasn't sold any of his AMYT shares so far since he has over 3% of the AMYT shares in issue so if he had sold any an RNS would have had to be issued. We haven't had one, so Harris hasn't sold any AMYT shares (YET!).

Presumably the AMYT BoD have concluded (and the Nomad must have agreed with the BoD) that the details (and cost) of the settlement of this court case brought against Harris would have NO effect on the AMYT share price otherwise they would have had to issue an RNS.

[jimbobtechstock] 23/5/2018 12:47

Got word from a very reliable source on some interesting snippets from the settlement with Harris.

* Get a feeling AMYT not looking for a punitive defeat. Amryt still own exclusive license to AP102 and nothing brought up in court changes this.

* Settlement is confidential but does not include forfeiture of any AMYT shares (otherwise that would have to be declared as a transaction in own shares by AMYT)

* Interestingly as far as company is aware, Harris still owns all his shares in last declared holding and they do not believe the <2% holding rule applies to Harris' AMYT holding as there is an exception in an earlier agreement that they believe still holds going forwards. So they don't believe Dr Harris will be forced to sell shares.

* I have it on excellent authority that the Rights Assignment described in the settlement is Harris signing over to Amryt the rights to all work carried out on AP102 allegedly in breach of the prior agreements signed by Harris in the original RTO SPA. So a research gain at no cost to Amryt here.

* I don't believe there is a large financial settlement, so again I don't think Harris will be forced to sell shares. Looks like company got what it wanted in terms of: demonstrating they will protect their IPR, preventing further work in competition potentially in breach of their exclusive license and taking ownership of all research carried out allegedly in breach of these agreements.

* Costs order is each party bears their own costs

Get the distinct feeling Amryt now want to move on and so probably won't be issuing an RNS to shout about this win. I believe lots in progress at the moment outside this case.

(Public court order is here as image linked from my tweet:
)

[papillon] 21/5/2018 13:54

Unfortunately there is no current investor interest in AMYT. Just one trade so far today. A paltry 4014 sell @ 17p.