Amerisur Resources Share Discussion Threads

[tom111] 28/5/2018 19:20

We need to know what the drilling rsults are first I would have thought

[juuunx2] 28/5/2018 18:27

Whilst it's possible I'm not so sure. This was as low as13.5p not so long back if there was gonna be a takeover surely back then would of made more sense although I'm no expert on these things.

[mad foetus] 28/5/2018 17:47

There do appear to be a lot of rumours of a takeout around at the moment. Perhaps resolution of the election will be the trigger event. The consensus around 65p seems to me optimistic. 40p more likely, and a bargain for the acquirer.

[lucyp00p] 28/5/2018 12:30

really? Who knew

[charlieeee] 28/5/2018 10:25

Well Duque's a lawyer, not a military man from either side, so more likely a war of words than any thing else.

At the end of the day, if he makes the symbolic gesture of taking away guaranteed seats for FARC, then that is restoring democracy and would go some way to appeasing Uribe. Hard on any renewed activity is, of course, a good thing, as that reinforces the peace process and a handful of dissidents should not continue to hold a nation to ransom, where democratic redress exists.

As time goes on, business interests will moderate his approach and they will be entirely cynical/pragmatic: growing industries such as tourism are entirely dependent on peace, as is foreign investment, such as for mining.

It would be a sad day for Colombia, if it either turned its back on the peace process or went the way of Venezuela, but with experience of the decades long war and leftist model both close at hand, it should not be hard to take the right path.

[lucyp00p] 28/5/2018 08:59

but not for FARC lite

[tom111] 28/5/2018 08:52

Looks as if Duque will win the second round which is good for multi nationals and amer

[bigwavedave] 28/5/2018 04:21

Election goes to second round:

[avais1] 27/5/2018 10:18

Well thanks very much for the comprehensive reply reference RH plus all the other information,I feel very comfortable with my share purchase and may well add on any dips. Listened to AGM presentation and company potential seems worth the risk reward. In my opinion.

[tom111] 26/5/2018 19:49

Important day tomorrow as we all know the elections take place lets hope for a good outcome

[rich2006] 26/5/2018 17:11

I think something in Equador is a possibility and might explain some of the silence/lack of promotion and slow progress with the Oba throughput.

[charlieeee] 26/5/2018 16:52

The pump house enhancement adds 4k minimum of capacity at the moment, the capacity is 50K and ultimately the additional capacity is for Amer's own production, the blended lower API "N2 sands the higher API from existing Plat production and further "U" and "T" sands.

One of the potential Put 8 targets on the east side of the block would also hook in with little effort.

Working with Petroamazonas is not a bad call, either, if the company wants get a foot in the Euadorian door.

[lucyp00p] 26/5/2018 15:38

Foiled that was pretty comprehensive but a couple of things to add.The company changed the original planned pipeline from 7k capacity to 70k which delayed commissioning for about 2 years at peak oil and yet yielded nothing due to pumping limitations. Short term this was a bad call especially as HE suggested running another pipeline was no longer likely to be a problem. Part of the share price bounce after the pipeline was finally opened was that Amerisur could broker deals with neighbouring producers and make a good turn shipping third party production. If not part of the plan, what was the point of the spec. change? So, strategically, while I agree lots of decisions have been excellent, the pipeline call - accompanied inexplicably by self congratulatory share options, was extremely bad as 2 years worth of trucked output was bloody expensive.The jury remains out about 3rd party production via the OBA but with the pumphouse enhancement only adding 2k of capacity it's not happening any time soon.

[charlieeee] 26/5/2018 11:50

Super post for "newbies" FA and we have had quite a lot of new interest.

Perhaps they should also be directed to slide 6 of the recent presentation to see the visual representation of the acquisitions that you list, a group of contiguous blocks, geologically interpreted as a whole and an area dwarfing the Platinillo "sliver" that we held back in 2014, in "67p" days..

With CPO-5 as well, Amer is a different beast, Colombia focused and that is where JW's experience and great successes have occurred: it is interesting that the change of direction for CPO-5 came after Amer's involvement.

With drill bit success, this could easily double.

GLA

[foiledagain] 26/5/2018 11:49

I agree with TDH so hope he doesn't stop posting even though I do not engage in the dark arts of charts.

What strikes me is the similarity now to a situation already encountered previously at Amerisur, and where if anyone thinks the BoD don't have a strategy they should remember Alea!

For months and months, in fact about 2 years, Alea the well on Plat where Repsol, Ecopetrol and Amerisur shared the lease, encountered nothing but problems, and complete news blackouts leaving posters angry and frustrated at the BoD where posters were making the sort of comments made on here in the last 18 months...if not worse.

Water cut was said to be a problem along with everything else, and some of the posts were OTT albeit a product of frustration.

Yet JW always said water cut was not a problem....but they seemingly failed and failed on those first Plat wells.....and with no really good news and a gut feeling that Amerisur were not keen on good news.

Then Amerisur bought the others out for a song and miraculously the problems seem to disappear just as JW predicted?

Was it luck that everything was solved after Amerisur owned 100%. I think not!

In my opinion it was a strategy well played, yet shareholders on bb who weren't aware of the strategy and rightly so, were going apesh+t about the lack of news, the lack of progress etc. etc.

This situation has distinctly the same feel about it.

The problem is of course that shareholders are not privy to strategy and nor should they be, which then results in posters including me posting on what is perceived, rather than what might be a first class strategy taking place in the background, and looking back provides sufficient evidence they have those skills.

[sleveen] 26/5/2018 11:00

OK

Add RH selling to the mix: "whether that was the then POO, BS about OBA and future production"

[juuunx2] 26/5/2018 09:40

Very well put FA

[foiledagain] 26/5/2018 09:17

Disagree

16:03:2017 "The blocks contain a variety of attractive prospects, with analogues to the Platanillo field, other interesting structural traps, including some already proven to contain oil through existing, tested legacy wells."

65p in 2014 where that was a period where from June 2014 to December 2014 oil prices had slumped by over 40% and that price decline continued.

Production dropped and projects from many oil companies were shelved. Amerisur BoD in my opinion rightly took the view to curtail production. So when they receive criticism for some things, they also got a lot right!

That period also coincided with RH holding over 14% (27/11/14)representing 149,516,478 shares.

By 2/2/15 Amerisur had 'slashes spending'. Again completely correct actions by the BoD.
In February we then also had LTIP options awarded that went down like a lead balloon.

Later in the month reserves were reported and of course they had dropped, because wells had been taken off line with the drop in oil price. Strategy correct imo.

7/4/15 RH complains about options and revisions are made

12/6/15 Pipeline deal announced with Ecuador. But oil price is still smashed.

29/6/15 Amerisur take advantage of distressed seller. Buy up Petrodorado assets which include CPO-5 and Tacacho for peanuts $6m in 3 instalments with the first instalment in shares at share price of just over 37p. The deal also carried tax losses of $57m worth potentially $20m to Amerisur. INSPIRED DEAL!

Not a lot of production activity and why would they at such low oil price. That can be saved for later via OBA.

26/1/16. Again no emphasis really on trying to produce oil at silly prices, so instead another distressed sellers Platino Energy assets are snapped up at bargain price of $7m ALL PAID WITHOUT CASH IN AMERISUR SHARES. This also included tax pools of up to $24m that may be offset against future income.

29/1/16 Reserves drop again. Obvious they would with curtailed production. Again right decision IMO.

7/4/16 Emotive headline from Alliance News "Amerisur turns to substantial loss..." totally OTT and not realising oil price was the factor here as Amerisur CHOSE not to produce oil that they expect to sell at a higher price. Oil companies also had write downs which made accounts look worse.

17/6/17 Paraguay drill "not commercially extractable". A drill that Amerisur had no real option but undertake with pressure from Paraguay government and wild statements from Paraguay government about oil found prior to this. UNHELPFUL.

16/3/17 Amerisur snap up more distressed assets from Pacific Exploration and Production for just $4.8m:
-- 60% in the Put-9 contract area
-- 58%* in the Mecaya contract area
-- 100% in the Terecay contract area
-- 50.5% in the Tacacho contract area.

again no real enthusiasm for increased production and why should there be at silly oil prices and without benefit of OBA?

In February 2018 (12/2/18) RH's holding had dropped from the notified 14%+ to below 5% although the RNS makes little sense as it mentions a sale of 6,579,106 shares to leave 56,215,117.

So from November 2014 to February 2018 RH's holding had dropped from 149,516,478 to 56,215,117 shares.

Thats 93,301,361 shares disposed of at least in that period which in an AIM company does a lot of damage.

Knowing that why would any BoD strive to either increase production in a period of very low oil prices, or help bolster a seller's pockets?

OBA delays weren't helpful, nor the bottleneck, but Amerisur in that period did make hay whilst the sun shone...picking up good assets including CPO-5.

I have no idea how many Rex intends to sell, but I wonder if its the 106million referred to at AGM and whether he was the holder referred to, and whether negotiations are in hand to buy up any remaining shares from his sell order, as its likely he has even less shares now, so major impacts from disposals will be less and less effective as one single buyer could snap up a block, and I wonder if that would not serve RHs purpose so it wouldn't surprise me in the least for an agreement to either buy the shares he wants to sell, or even unlikely as it seems a reversal in his game plan, if both parties put their toys back in their respective prams.

What gives a clue is the fact OPTIONS reared their ugly head again, as RH's influence by virtue of his disposals reduced so the awards reappeared fter previous RNS's suggested changes, and he may not like that if its a tussle. He has the wherewithall to buy them back if he wanted, but more sensible would be to heal the rift.


The 'game' has not been that efficient for RH but then I doubt he cares that much as he is not a distressed seller.

In the same period hundreds of companies went to the wall, with no cash to produce let alone increase assets, but Amerisur picked off quite a few for peanuts including CPO-5.

[sleveen] 26/5/2018 07:41

Has anyone thought that when AMER hit 65p that the share price was overbought and the MC unrealistic (whether that was the then POO, BS about OBA and future production [or all three] causing the overvaluation is moot).

Since then we've had a couple of placings to buy what appear to be prospective assets and OBA is operational and hopefully will hit the 9k bopd for 2018, contingent on successful drilling.

Given POO remains in the $60-70, a more realistic share price expectation would perhaps be 30-35p in 2019.


60p is unrealistic.

IMHO

[mikett1] 26/5/2018 00:11

RH stands for Rex Harbour. Who is a private investor who built up a 10% stake in Amerisur when it was a penny stock. Over the previous year or so he's been persistently selling his shares. The fact Amerisur is undervalued implies he is either a distressed or vindictive seller. He has less than 5% of the company now. In a company the size of Amerisur a 10% stake holder slowly selling undoubtedly has a negative effect on the share price. So, theoretically, when he is gone, which should coincide with resource upgrades and production increases, Amerisur has the potential to multi bag. All IMO.

[avais1] 25/5/2018 23:07

I bought some shares in this company a few days ago. I have been watching this share for just over a year now. A few posters keep mentioning the initials RH and selling. Could anyone enlighten me as to who this is or direct me to posts that do. Thanks in advance.

[lucyp00p] 25/5/2018 22:43

juuuuuuuunx2 bite me