Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[clive7878] 27/2/2024 18:49

Hopefully going forward the share price now being 41p having fallen from 47,
will be held up by the percentage dividend now being paid, as the last 3 dividends have been wiped out by the fall in share price. Hopefully the share price has now bottomed out.

For those who are not flying A380's, I was a bit concerned to hear that Ryan Air - who recently said that fares could go up by 10% due to the delay in buying new planes - have 57 number on order of Boeing 737 Max's. Presumably Boeing have now sorted out the software problem and the doors falling off. Not that I have flown Ryan Air.
I have flown on a A380 which was a dream flight. But on saying that I have also flown on a A737 but not a Max as far as I was aware. One of the ones that did crash had left Kunming in China where I have also flown out of, and where my wife came from.

[clive7878] 23/2/2024 11:24

The trades at 40.94 are all buys in thin trading.
The selling price is 40.51p

[hpcg] 21/2/2024 14:46

There has been a buyer for the last few days at least picking up shares at or below 41.25, so it will have been a worked deal consummated this morning.

[clive7878] 21/2/2024 12:20

My guess at 41.25p - for 1st trade of the day - that was a buy, as the range should have been 41.25/41/06,
but the price still keeps waning.

Actually price now 12.30 is 40.6p / 41.50p due to a test sell / buy I have done.

The only good news is for traders buying the yield is getting even better.
But then with the A380's still being wanted together with the yield the stock should be firming up,
and not waning.

[fram7] 21/2/2024 10:17

over 500.000£...wasn't me!!! looks like a buy order but someone must have sold! very good to see good volumes going through

[hpcg] 21/2/2024 09:04

That can only have been a buy.

[panshanger1] 21/2/2024 08:51

Big line gone through

[brynos] 19/2/2024 20:54

I don't know if anyone on here has been following the story of Global Airlines hxxps://www.globalairlines.com/
My post is not intended to start a discussion on the merits of this airline, as there is quite enough online as it is.

What I wanted to draw the thread's attention to is that an A380 which was a former China Airlines aircraft serial number MSN120 has been bought by Global Airlines and has recently made some test flights in preparation for being brought out of storage.

See the flights on flightradar24 here hxxps://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/9h-globl# Be quick though as they can only be viewed for 7 days unless you have a premium account.

Maybe, just maybe, if Global, and it's proposal, can become successful and there is a long way to go, there will be a real second hand market for the A380.

I shall follow with interest but I am not holding my breath.

[2wild] 16/2/2024 19:19

Airbus recently announced they expected to deliver 300 planes this year. Down on previous 326 estimate. Delivery delays keep getting longer. Plus all the problems at boeing should Translate into high residual values for Aa4 planes in 2026.

[hpcg] 15/2/2024 09:22

The equity invested in the planes has done fine. It was $79mn/$264mn on the first couple of A380, $23m/$173mn on the 777 and I didn't bother looking up the A350. The money was raised at a quid though, so no, at this point equity investors are struggling. That was all the pandemic though and nothing conceptual; it was a bigger risk than they though and one of those risk hit. Mind you I haven't added up past returns because I could not care less.

[fram7] 15/2/2024 08:47

thank you for the insight. Are you saying that the cash originally paid by investors has been wasted and there is no chance that the sale of the planes net of outstanding debt will leave much left? Its a simple matter to calculate the NPV of cash flow to estimate the share value. we know we have a nearly guarantee dividend return of about 20p/50% of current share price. but if the shares will end up at nearly 0, in case no leases are renewed and no cash is left in the company, does not look good for equity investors!

[hpcg] 14/2/2024 23:07

fram7 - for now we can say the business won't continue. Each new plane was bought with a significant chunk of equity, which the company can't really issue with the NAV and share price so far apart. Should the share price become equal to NAV, then yes, it would be possible to issue new equity if there were to be investors that wanted to do that.

[fram7] 14/2/2024 16:03

Hi, no doubt the risks are the ones you highlight. But I would say it is quite clear that the A380 will continue to flight after 2026. It is a modern, efficient, comfortable and safe plane. So I suppose leases will be renewed although we do not know the conditions. Or the planes will be sold and we have some ideas of values. I am also curious about the position of Amedeo. Are they expecting the business to close down or they will buy new planes? Not sure about this but I feel it makes sense for the company to continue if the model is financially viable. Let's remember that the share issue was done at 100 and have been for years above par. At the time of the issue terminal values of planes have been most likely overvalued but even considering returns of capital the current price seems quite low and incorporate some discounts.

[clive7878] 14/2/2024 14:15

I thought that the planes had a retrofit to increase the quality of seats to gain more income per seat. The leases I believe are up for renewal in 2026, however what is uncertain is what happens next - Are Emirates going to buy the planes and if so at what price, or will they renew the leases - again at what price and what will the dividend then be going forward?

[scrwal] 13/2/2024 12:28

So the leases expiring in 2026 are planes not having the retrofit.
Surprised that 42336 isn't currently part of the retrofit plan yet.

[davebowler] 13/2/2024 10:49

Liberum -

Amedeo Air Four Plus

Progress continues at Emirates and Thai, all six AA4 A380s to be in service by the end of Q1
Analysts: Shonil Chande and Gerald Khoo

Mkt Cap £126m | Share price 41.5p | Prem/(disc) -64.7% | Div yield 19.3%

Event

Key points from Amedeo Air Four Plus’s Q4 2023 factsheet include 1) both Emirates and Thai Airways continuing to make progress; 2) an additional AA4 A380 (MSN 208) leased to Emirates has returned to service and the final parked A380 is expected to return by the end of Q1; and 3) a lack of supply rather than a lack of demand is the issue currently.

Both Emirates and Thai made progress in Q4, with Emirates expanding operations and introducing premium economy on more routes. Thai Airways reported a profit for the first 9M of 2023 and is progressing with its rehabilitation plan, including a capital increase and debt-to-equity swap arrangements.

MSN 208 returned to service, having been parked since the start of the pandemic and MSN 201 is expected to return by the end of Q1. The utilisation of the AA4 A380s by Emirates in Q4 is shown below:

[andyandyoj] 13/2/2024 08:00

That’s a very interesting snippet

[metis20] 13/2/2024 07:30

"First, the directors were very pleased to be able to show their confidence in the Company's finances by increasing the dividend last month. Whilst there are issues surrounding values (good and bad) our cash flow is strong, we are not exposed to rising interest rates and our lessees are performing well."

"Asia Pacific traffic continues its strong recovery which helps Thai Airways. They are rumoured to be about to order new Boeing 787 aircraft. The airline is clearly confident that it will have the balance sheet and cashflow to finance them."

Interesting snippet from the fact sheet:

"Emirates has selected and the Company has formally consented for MSNs 187, 201, 206, 208, & 42334 to undergo the premium economy retrofit."

[fram7] 12/2/2024 09:33

Dear fellow Amedeo investors. Worth increasing Amedeo? We know about the uncertain future but at 42 seems quite a good deal? I feel the current price discounts a residual value of the planes quite low? Do you know why Doric shares are much higher?
I do not see much alternative in the market. Any suggestion?

[panshanger1] 12/2/2024 08:15

Took a few here last week Interesting diversification and a big fan of the A380When I think how long they kept some of those old 747s in the sky and the popularity of this plane Worth a small allocation imho

[clive7878] 08/2/2024 11:26

Up to July 2026 the AA4 shares should be on a smooth course, but the worry of the unknown factor and appears to be is when the leases expire in 2026, and what will the deal be then and what will happen then, there could be turbulence in the share price then, or they may fly higher. That is where share holders see the potential risk of the stock. That's why the stock has drifted from 47p to its current price and is flat now.

[mattjos] 06/2/2024 12:00

Boeing are really making a mess of things. Their reputation in tatters & must be having a negative impact on their business.
people actively now looking to avoid certain Boeing planes when they fly.
The A380 is head & shoulders the best long-haul plane .... Emirates will want to keep theirs flying for as long as possible.
I would not be surpirsed if even some of the 747's are brought back into service - still a terrific plane

[hpcg] 06/2/2024 11:33

The key thesis for material upside here is that Boeing fails again to deliver 777-X. We don't even know if it will reach its efficiency target. There are several A380 flyers that are totally dependent on that aircraft, most notably BA, Singapore, Lufthansa (lead customer) and Singapore. They all took 747s out of the sky during the pandemic and are running 777-300 on those routes while the routes are taken over by A350. That is without an A380 specialist coming on the line. Anyone of those might look at a lease released (refurbed) from Emirates for $50mn or more as great value for money for a 10 year life.

That Emirates will want to take our planes is beyond doubt now, what concerns us is the price.

[clive7878] 06/2/2024 10:20

Dividends should be ok until July 2026, it is just a question of what happens then.
New leases? A drop in dividends ? Where is the share price then.
I would like to think that the share price wont drift any more like of recent times,
which has wiped out the current payments.