Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[spittingbarrel] 22/11/2023 13:08

I've just bought some at 42.9. Someone's mad, either the seller or me...

[hpcg] 22/11/2023 11:32

Matttjos - An ESG manager can't have possibly invested here in the first place. I would think it is either a traditional sell half on a double (nonsense, but people do it) or funds forced to sell because of redemptions. Don't forget a lot of investor will only have started mving money into money market funds when they hit 5%, being many months too late. By definition most sellers are at the bottom and most buyers are at the top. I don't mean in this instrument now, the bottom is way behind, I'm talking UK investors taking their money out of the stock market.
Still, who cares, all the better for thoseof us that pay attention.

[clive7878] 21/11/2023 22:39

Emirates have their heads turned on - larger plane - more business and first class passengers - higher rate of income per seat - making more money from each flight.
I agree that Emirates will keep these flying as long as possible.

[my retirement fund] 21/11/2023 20:37

I added a good slug today

[eeza] 21/11/2023 20:31

Shows how 'wrong' the share price is.

[mattjos] 21/11/2023 20:28

thanks eeza .. terrific article & makes it abundantly clear that Emirates are 100% committed to the A380 for as long as they can possibly keep them going.
Sir Tim Clark still arguing that Airbus should restart the 380 programme.

I am still convinced the seller here is simply a fund manager operating under some sort of idiotic woke/ESG governance directive and being forced to sell.
As/when they are gone, this should re-rate according to the underlying attractive metrics

[eeza] 21/11/2023 19:34

"The Emirates A380 is to be completely refurbished under the airline’s US$2billion retrofit program".

[andyandyoj] 20/11/2023 15:58

Looks like today’s bigger buys are on dna2. With a buy back happening in a couple of months of 2 in 7 shares and a pretty strong commitment to more that is understandable. Same basic proposition but dna2 has no debt

[langland] 20/11/2023 10:05

The block which was available at the end of last week around 43 seems to have moved out to 43.5.

[hpcg] 20/11/2023 08:10

Basically I agree. If they were 200s I might have a little more doubt, but with 747s missing from the sky there'll have to be more point to point and from minor airports to hubs as hub to hub slots fill. The gulf states still have a lot of capacity on their runways. Emirates could add Belfast or Edinburgh for example.

If this starts to become clear we should see asset values written back up.

[rimau1] 20/11/2023 07:42

The 777 is an absolute machine, no realistic scenario of the leases on these planes not being extended in my view. Sit back and watch the cashflows fly higher.

[langland] 20/11/2023 07:42

'What if Emirates extends all the leases! I would guess the 777-300ER would be most at risk, but 777 are hardly flowing off the production line at the moment. I would think they will easily find another home even if Emirates as a tier 1 customer has other choices.'

I believe that Boeing are having problems with the new 777s in that the planes are not meeting the fuel consumption figures which were projected in the original spec.

[hpcg] 20/11/2023 07:36

"While we have underwritten the investment to what we believe are conservative assumptions, there are scenarios under which actual returns could be considerably higher still. For example, if Emirates extends any of the eight leases, or if a sale of any of the aircraft is completed above our pessimistic assumptions."

What if Emirates extends all the leases! I would guess the 777-300ER would be most at risk, but 777 are hardly flowing off the production line at the moment. I would think they will easily find another home even if Emirates as a tier 1 customer has other choices.

[my retirement fund] 19/11/2023 13:59

I like that they note "even if the conservative residual values that we are assuming play out, should still enjoy further returns from here on"

[andyandyoj] 18/11/2023 09:26

There is a nice write up in IC Alpha from a couple of months ago. It’s behind a paywall but if you are a subscriber it’s comprehensive (slightly optimistic in terms of current value of aircraft, but generally comprehensive). Failing that look for the Global Value Fund (managed by Staude Capital). Read several of their monthly or annual reports and they give a flavour. hxxps://static1.squarespace.com/static/64d42e9668ee7b5191a0605d/t/64db01c4f091700be6858e2b/1692074440878/GVF-FY2022-in-Review-by-Miles-Staude.pdf. Also the oakbloke sub stack “Rock me Amedeo” article has a lot of nice stuff

[eeza] 17/11/2023 18:14

Would have thought they have gone through holding %, and should need to RNS.

[my retirement fund] 17/11/2023 17:34

Still a seller here loading on various clips. Whoever is responsible at total nut case!

[rimau1] 17/11/2023 16:58

I've doubled my holding here based on Tim Clark's interviews over the past few days. There is no realistic scenario where our leases don't get extended which makes the investment case more compelling than when i invested 12 months ago.

[langland] 17/11/2023 15:46

Bid has crept up to 42.69 but there is still 250k at 43.

[eeza] 17/11/2023 13:56

Someone has been supplying the MM's since the XD date - but seems to be slowly running out of ammo.

[lord gnome] 17/11/2023 13:55

Yes, lots of buys seemingly, so someone must be feeding the market with stock.

[skyship] 17/11/2023 13:49

412k bt so far today. Presumably a sale being worked behind the scenes, but surely must be breaking higher soon.

[eeza] 17/11/2023 13:29

Snippet

"Recent events have meant that the amount of capital returned will be much higher than the market recently anticipated,"