Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 04/1/2024 12:03

"The share price should go down only by the amount equivalent to the dividend."


Yes, but the last 2 XD's have seen the share price decline by double the 1.75p div.

Prior to 2 XD's ago the bid was ~47.50p.

[casholaa] 04/1/2024 11:47

Indeed fram, but it's also undervalued, imvho.

[fram7] 04/1/2024 11:32

The share price should go down only by the amount equivalent to the dividend. Unless there are other reason for the price moving. You have to remember that this share is thinly traded with a massive spread and the price you see quoted is not always correct.

[andyandyoj] 04/1/2024 11:24

That would make reinvestment better. If you don’t think it’s a share worth owning you really should sell

[clive7878] 04/1/2024 11:12

If they are falling this week, the price could be under 40p next Thursday, after they have gone ex-dividend !

[clive7878] 03/1/2024 09:44

Would have thought that investors may have been buying for the dividend.
I am considering though getting out on the 10th though as here is some truth in what Lord Grome has said. But on the other hand things should not change a great deal until 2026. I believe that the share price will remain flat though. So there are 2 sides to the story.

[lord gnome] 02/1/2024 09:27

I'm out. Too many question marks. Moved into FAIR instead. Roughly equivalent income. GLA

[hpcg] 01/1/2024 19:23

clive7878 - you are so wrong it isn't true. There is no debt at the top level company. I find it astonishing that potential investors don't do any research at all. The debt situation is even in presentations and the annual report, never mind the source documents. Still that is what makes a market.

For what its worth I suspect the share price will fall more than the dividend when it goes ex-rights. I personally wouldn't hold if I were paying tax on the dividends.

[clive7878] 01/1/2024 17:50

I thought that AA4 had a level of debt to be repaid when the leases expire in July 2026, and the question was the asset value then at that point in time compared to the repayment figure.
When the stock goes ex-dividend in 11 days time, up to then presumably there will be buying and the share price may rise, how far will it fall afterwards.

[hpcg] 31/12/2023 11:03

clive7878 - there are no loans to fund. Each A380 (and all other aircraft) is within its own company and has non-recourse debt. This is crystal clear from each prospectus issued. So the lowest value of any of the planes is 0.

[clive7878] 30/12/2023 20:48

Lemonfool.co.uk had some useful info aa4. Yhe gross asset appears to to well overstated - the net asset value is 381m. Stock cap price is 128m.divi over 2.5 years - not 3 years is 17.5p to end of lease. Dividends cud well then be cut.
S64 question is can they fund loan outstanding ibi July 2026? Short term no risk - longer term there is risk. I can see previous posters bigman's concerns.

[hpcg] 30/12/2023 12:04

I calculated returns with nil value for the A380s at current lease end and returns are still decent. People neglect the other aircraft and fixate on the A380s. Admittedly that is where the significant potential upside is, but as I say returns are much better than cash even without that, by my calculation at least.

[btgman] 29/12/2023 23:38

Some interesting comments above, I would not the following:-

By the time the leases expire in 3 years time we will have depreciated the assets by a circa 360m

Loans will have reduced by circa 300m

Current NAV is circa 3 times the current share price

In the December 2023 report the directors did not feel there was any need for any impairment write down.

If you take you dividend for the next 3 years you will have had circa 50% of the share price back.

Given the current travel environment there is a high probability for leases to be extended

This isn't without risk nothing is but the likely outcome is skewed very much to the positive

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[scrwal] 29/12/2023 22:00

The Chairman stated in the interims that "In respect of the first option, the Company currently pays a quarterly dividend of 1.75 pence per share. We expect to be
able to continue to pay a dividend of at least this amount until July 2026 after which the Company’s leases start to expire. The rate of dividend is therefore likely to decline significantly after that date but will depend on the circumstances existing
at that time."

[clive7878] 29/12/2023 19:21

They did say that the 737 max may have bolt problems. A380s are a dream.
Next ex divi date is due for 11 Jan. - to pay on 31 Jan.
Any known confimed change in real asset value - which currently the valuation is speculation - may not take place until 2026 , so the current dividend cud be paid for a while yet.
The problem I see though the share price could remain flat in the mean time. Last ex dividend we lost more in share price than was paid in dividend.

[candid investor] 29/12/2023 10:49

So many grammatical errors in my last post, and missed punctuations .. no question marks after my questions etc ..I apologise for that. It's the post Christmas hangover effect .

Hopefully you will get the gist of what I have written

[candid investor] 29/12/2023 10:45

Lord Gnome . I read the whole report and didn't quite see it in the same bullish terms that you seem to do
1. They will only make compulsory redemptions as and when they sell aircraft ..hasn't the second hand market collapsed
2. If they sell to Emirates. probably at a large discount ...implications would be that lenders would take repossession of aircraft when lease receipts were sufficient to cover proceeds and reduced lease income
3. Could they insist that dividend payments are stopped to ensure they recover as much of the debt as possible
4. Currently asset values are less than the loans taken out on them..this is purely because of the asset in use of the Emirates planes value are much higher than the resale value ..

None of the options they listed in the Executive summary are either too risky , or not really an option at present

After due consideration of these factors I sold half of my investment this morning and swallowed the loss

I will keep the other 50% on the table in case I am wrong , which could mean that I recover the losses on the other 50 per cent and

[mattjos] 28/12/2023 20:32

As & when interest rates start to fall in Q1 '24, this should find its way to the front of the queue, given its yield.
I'd far rather fly in an A380 than a wonky 737

[fram7] 22/12/2023 19:38

That was me....I overpaid!!! But still a believer the share could go much higher.

[clive7878] 22/12/2023 15:39

It is a blue day - today majority buys !

[clive7878] 21/12/2023 20:32

I believe that a certain percentage of the stock is tightly held by a number of fund managers, that why this time around when on Wednesday there was a certain amount of selling the price did not move downwards to much. Today the rush of selling did not happen so the share price stablised again. I would not expect the bid price to go under 41.5p, in fact today it was around 42.5p so no real damage done.

The problem with the share price which was around 47p a couple of months ago before ex-dividend, I can't
see a reason why it should go above 49p for several months even all of next year, so we only have the good dividend to look forward to.

[casholaa] 21/12/2023 15:34

With other brokers, I've had other buy orders not filled with my broker/dealer even at the buy price. Fill or Kill usually helps. My understanding is that If you're buying at 50p per share, the broker/dealer picks them up for 49.70-49.90 and gives them to you for 50p per share thereby profiting from the share price flip & any dealing fee. I also find that a buy order usually goes unfilled on a small order for an illiquid share.

[cousinit] 21/12/2023 15:31

Have had occasional executions with HL. Not always clear 'how' - instinct has been that they have managed to 'cross' stock from an opposing client trade and both sit inside the best external spread.

Others are no panacea, especially with illiquid stocks. I see executions at better levels than my orders and check only to find mine is still sitting there unfilled! Seems that they get filled when someone wants to execute in quantities higher than MMs are prepared to take and they are unwilling to wait and gently 'work' the rump.

[clive7878] 21/12/2023 15:26

Offer price at 12.35 was around 42.5p.
the 41.55 was for a sell.
I believe that the share price will now firm up,
as buyers now come in.

[hpcg] 21/12/2023 15:02

fram7 - my experience with HL in these situations has been exactly that, it never happens.