Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[bdbd11] 26/7/2024 14:23

I'm finding the story here more and more compelling as time goes by. Couldn't resist a small top up of 4000 shares to go further overweight. the next 2p drops into our accounts next week, so for me that's over half the top up cost retrieved in short order.

[hpcg] 26/7/2024 09:33

Gary1966 - that was my immediate takeaway. What I can't work out is if this is because of the accelerated debt repayment or an estimate of their resale value at the end of term.

[panshanger1] 26/7/2024 09:31

Thought the chairman's statement had a slightly downbeat feel to it - maybe imagining it !Important update later in the year then

[andyandyoj] 26/7/2024 08:33

Liberium keep a buy rec with price target of 50p and say their (retained) assumptions are getting more conservative as second hand plane values firm up

[gary1966] 26/7/2024 08:25

So the Thai Airways planes are worth $100m more than the outstanding debt according to the asset manager. All sounding quite positive.

[11_percent] 26/7/2024 07:58

RNS......Annual Results for the year ended 31 March 2023 (they mean 2024).

[hpcg] 24/7/2024 23:48

That is quite something from Qatar which has previously labelled them the biggest mistake they ever made. Having fewer seats from e.g. Heathrow would cut load factor on all their east bound routes because almost no one is actually visiting Doha. The places where people want to go all have capacity constraints.

[mattjos] 24/7/2024 19:32

This & Emirates actions rather underpins A380 valuations much above previously assumed economic valuations.A380 is the Queen of skies, having dethroned the 747 and likely remain so for many years to come

[clive7878] 13/7/2024 16:05

A lot of the A380 that are not flying will probably never will fly, so they can use them for parts. Emirates have been up dating the quality of seating to more business class and first class - that is where the money is - not on economy seats, that is why they are doing so well. If they are not going to build new planes, then the existing ones depending on the flying hours left, should be going up in price. I would have thought that some A380's should be flying for many year to come.

My only concern with the share price we talk about an 18% dividend - we also need at least a flat share price to give this - but how the share price is performing should also be taking into account to get to a true net percentage gain - Oct 2022 it was 33p, Oct 2023 it was 46p (so effectively it was a lot more) - its been a bit bumpy since though. There has been quite some swings in the share price. Going forward ?

[hpcg] 12/7/2024 13:07

It is the shortage now that concerns us. The company needs to play hard ball with Emirates and if it tries any funny games call their bluff and get them to return an A380 per the lease conditions.

[grahamg8] 12/7/2024 07:26

rambutan, I agree entirely. This was my post last night on DNA3:

I agree nat, and also all 5 of the DNA2 planes. Fleet 116, retrofit 110, delivered by Airbus already with premium economy 6. So Emirates definitely intend to keep all the planes in service for many years to come. So it all boils down to a re-lease/buy decision and the all important price. Next plane off lease 1/10/24 (DNA2).

AA4 shareholders would do well to read the DNA2/3 latest factsheet, particularly the parts relating to Airbus/Boeing manufacturing. They can't fulfil existing orders for their newer design of planes. Hence IMO there is zero chance of new A380's being built.

[rambutan2] 12/7/2024 04:39

It's very clear that Airbus are not going to build any more A380s or attempt an A380neo. That is a fact. There are many reasons for this, all of which have been in the public domain for plenty long enough for anyone who is prepared to do a few minutes of research to quickly discover. So, enough with the fond imaginings please.

However, this, alongside the Boeing debacle, the Airbus production issues, and all the other bottle necks in the air travel industry, means that Emirates have no option but to keep hold of all the A380s they currently use and to continue using them for many year's to come. Whether they choose to do this by buying our planes off us or giving us new leases at the end of the current leases, and at what valuations, is the $64m question...

[btgman] 11/7/2024 22:53

Exactly Matt investors and the market have been real slow to cotton on to the 18% yield. Imagine if it continues for another 10 years it may well happen.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[mattjos] 11/7/2024 22:46

correct.
A30 demand is strong ... and growing.
Passenger numbers per take-off slot is going to keep growing in importance as (post pandemic) airports around the world hit traffic limits as consequence of rejuvenated consumer and business traveller.
A380 is the king of the skies & Airbus will surely be considering Emirates repeated desire for new ones. let's see if we get another operator asking for same this year.
I believe the A380 assets here are actually increasing in value, contrary to the present valuation & depreciation assumptions.

[fram7] 11/7/2024 22:35

Like any normal share? ex div the share falls of the amount of the dividend. I do not find anything strange here?

[clive7878] 11/7/2024 21:53

We need to have a look at the net dividend yield after considering the fall in share price over the last 5 payments - it was 47p now 43p so 4p of the 10p dividend paid out has already been lost. Again a hypothetical question is what is the share price going to be in mid 2026? But it still should be a variable investment. Again this time around we have lost the dividend in downward share price movement.

[podgyted] 10/7/2024 21:48

Be interesting to see what the final accounts say on the book value of the planes - I've got this down for 31 July.

[2wild] 10/7/2024 20:53

Been a long time since AA4 last closed at 45p. 49p including January and April dividends. For 2023 total share Price and dividend return was about 35%. Looking good for a repeat performance for 2024.

Ex 2p tomorrow.

[my retirement fund] 10/7/2024 09:44

Emirates has been pressuring Airbus to make some more for some while now. All it would take is a number of firm orders backed up with a certain amount of deposits and fully committed watertight delivery contracts, and it would happen. I'm not sure what you're talking about by saying Never!

[btgman] 10/7/2024 08:44

18% yield is a absolutely huge perception has been that this is going to drop and yeas it may do but not until 2026.

If we take a view that 8% is a decent yield you can argue over next 2 years 8.8p comes off capital value. This would take share price down to 36p. To achieve 8% on 36p dividend would need to be 2.88p per annum. This is highly likely and some and we still have a NAV of over double the share price.

You can argue a doubling of the share price all day long

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[grahamg8] 09/7/2024 18:42

The chance of Airbus making more A380's must be about as near to zero as it is possible to get. This is journalists creating a non story out of nothing because it makes a good headline. Fact: There is a huge shortfall in manufacturing at the moment at both Airbus and Boeing, refer to recent proper story hxxps://aviationweek.com/air-transport/aircraft-propulsion/airbus-cuts-commercial-aircraft-production-targets-records-space

How could any sane manufacturer divert resources from existing modern plane production lines to restart production of a model which is already outdated and no longer fuel efficient compared with its more modern rivals?

Yet this is exactly why the A380's are gaining a resurgence. They exist and are flying in order to fill the gap from planes which to a certain extent have been ordered but the manufacturers simply can't make fast enough. Long may it continue.

[clive7878] 09/7/2024 16:56

Scrawl- good point.As you say building new planes don't happen over night either. Certainly has been some buying ahead of going ex-dividend. See how the price goes on Thursday.