Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[clive7878] 03/5/2024 17:25

It is difficult to anticipate going forward the share price & asset value, although the dividend payment is more predictable - as least up to the renewal of the leases.
Is the share price now levelling out after the gradual fall in share price from 47p, next week will tell ?

[hpcg] 03/5/2024 11:41

clive - that isn't quite the totality of the question. Each individual aircraft is within its own company. This creates a lot of nuance, where for each unit values below the bullet payment are 0, but above are linear with the difference.

The non-A380 units are very clearly much more valuable now than they would have perceived to have been a) when the 777 were purchased, and b) when Thai came out of special administration. We could structure an A380 deal that makes the first disposed of, or indeed last disposed of, well below the line, whilst others are well above. It makes no difference to Emirates, but a lot to shareholders.

[panshanger1] 02/5/2024 13:17

Then it's about demand and valuation then

[panshanger1] 02/5/2024 13:16

Given the board have said that extending the leases would be difficult and carry significant execution risk and cost That leaves an outright sale of the aircraft ?

[hpcg] 02/5/2024 13:13

Yes, that is encouraging to say the least.

[langland] 02/5/2024 12:21

Re-assuring to see Weiss adding. They are no fools.

[clive7878] 01/5/2024 21:48

The Bank of England rate was originally set to fall by 0.25% from 5.25% at the end of May, but now looks more likely to fall at the end of August and is due to fall more slowly than first thought, even though inflation is now around 3%.
Had they fallen more sharply AA4 dividend would have been more attractive, then as a result the share price would have been more attractive, forcing a rise in the share price. Looking at trading today, the share price does appear to be firmly up however with a .1p increase which hopefully is a start to come.

[metis20] 29/4/2024 16:16

and scroll to the bottom - the four A350-900s Thai airlines leases expire in 2035/6

[clive7878] 29/4/2024 11:51

meetis20 - thanks for that - I see that each of planes have a single separate lease date, (none expire together), so some dividend will continue after Sept 2026.
One important factor is the price of the share price as time goes on. Another is if the leases are renewed or if the planes are sold.

[metis20] 28/4/2024 22:23

see for Emirate A380s lease expiry dates - two near end of 2026, two near end of 2027 and two near start of 2028. So a fairly gradual process. By no means all in 2026

[clive7878] 28/4/2024 21:57

I am loathe to sell AA4 as I dont believe that in the future each time it does go ex-dividend that the share price will fall another 2p to wipe out the 5% quarterly dividend payment.

[clive7878] 24/4/2024 17:50

My guess is there are sells. The price is 38.2 / 38.5 some buys were 38.29p.
The buy / sell price has narrowed, although the buying price has fallen slightly.
Although I believe the asset value per share is 112p, if the share price loses 2p even time there is a divi payment - on 2026 the share price will only be 22p. It's lost 9p since of late.
Either they are very cheap or something don't add up. The divi is virtually guaranteed till 2026, when the share price could have a radical change up or down depending of the renewal or sale of the A380's

[panshanger1] 24/4/2024 16:18

Some big lines gone through Buys or sells ?

[clive7878] 17/4/2024 15:05

We could now find that the share price stays flat until July.
Hopefully it will not then lose another 2p when it goes ex-dividend.

The way it is going the share price could lose 16p down from 38p to 22p - the amount payable in dividend by April 2026.

Then it all depends on what happens with the position of the A380's with the sale them or renewal of a new contract. They are almost certain to be still flying after that date, but bought by Emirates or still being leased.

[clive7878] 12/4/2024 21:54

AA4 price at 38.5p does appear to be illogically with an almost guaranteed 20.6% dividend for the next 2 years. The share price I would have thought can't keep on wiping out the dividend payment - its fallen 18% in the last 12 months.

The MM appear to be very sensitive when a few investors sell pushing the price down, but not as before it goes ex-dividend when investors buy they were not pushing it up?
They obviously accumulating stock and they may be holding too much stock, but then much of the stock is held by long term funds.

[2wild] 12/4/2024 18:08

Added at 38.5p, online via interactive investor. The ongoing charge figure is low for an alternative trust. AJ Bell Stance seems Ridiculous.

[langland] 12/4/2024 13:24

A lot of the recent fall is probably down to the Aj Bell fiasco and the interpretation of the FCA fair value assessment.

[clive7878] 12/4/2024 12:19

The drop in share price over the last year has more than wiped out the 20% dividend.
This time around it has been even more dramatic with the continued slide of late.

[grahamg8] 11/4/2024 17:27

Bought more xd through HL, no problem. Anyone who is worried about the Emirates commitment to the A380 should look at the quarterly reports from DNA2 and DNA3 which give a detailed view of what the plans are going forward. I think the difference is that DNA have planned to pay off the debt and leave the full aircraft value at the end of the lease as a balloon payment on liquidation. Whereas AA4 seem to be keeping some debt on the books and paying that off from the residual plane value. A higher risk strategy which is presumably balanced by a higher reward in the form of greater running yield. At least I think that is what is going on.

EDIT
Usefully the latest DNA factsheets were published a few minutes ago which I didn't know at the time of the original post.

[clive7878] 11/4/2024 10:15

Over the last year the fall in share price 47 to 40p has wiped out the 20% dividend,
then one could also be liable - depending on personal circumstances - to pay tax on the dividend,
so one could be out of pocket at the end of the day.

Price I am getting online is 36.05 / 39.70
The only one making money could be the MM.

[scrwal] 10/4/2024 22:00

The A380's will be flying for some time but the board made it clear in the interims that extending or creating new leases would be difficult and would carry significant execution risk and cost.

[clive7878] 10/4/2024 21:41

Capital gains limit is I believe is reduced in 24/25 year, which means more tax collected by the Gov. Its the sinical tax increases that people will not notice, like the personal allowance remaining static, pushing more earner into the 40% bracket.

Would have thought most deals today will be buys. Although be interested tomorrow when I believe they go ex-divi how much the share price may lose tomorrow. But surely they can't always be losing the dividend against a falling share price every quarter when they go ex-dividend.

No good having a high dividend if it is getting wiped out by a falling share price
In saying that AA4 is my biggest holding.

AA4 should be paying a 40% dividend over the next 2 years.
S64 question is what will the value of the share price be in 2 years time ?
and will the shareholders make an overall profit against a possible falling share price ?
But then why should it continue to fall ?

Boeing have taken a bashing over the last few years on safety - 2 bad crashes, 1 door falling off in mid-flight, and things have not got any better recently, so the A380's should be flying for some time yet.

[lonrho] 10/4/2024 11:32

No problem buying online on HL.