Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[indiagolf12] 25/11/2023 18:46

Thanks Metis 20 - knew I’d seen it somewhere. Mr Greenwood also repeated his tip in last week’s IC:

[eeza] 25/11/2023 17:08

A380 picture-porn.

[eeza] 25/11/2023 17:03

This article claims extending A380 life into 2040's.

17.11.2023 - 03:20 UTC
Emirates (EK, Dubai International) plans to continue operating its fleet of A380-800s into the late 2030s or early 2040s, President Tim Clark told CNBC. The carrier signed various maintenance deals to "maintain and improve operational efficiency, as well as maximise fleet performance and reliability" of the type.
"Emirates will leverage, at scale, the expertise and capabilities of partners including Honeywell Aerospace, Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, Lufthansa Technik, OEM Services, Gameco, Haeco, and others to optimise its A380 fleet's lifespan and unlock additional operational efficiency gains, all at its exacting standards," the airline said.
Contracts signed during the Dubai Airshow 2023 are reportedly worth over USD1.5 billion. They include base maintenance, spare parts supply, and C-Check contracts. The C-Checks will be performed by Lufthansa Technik at Manila Ninoy Aquino International airport, by Gameco at Guangzhou airport, and by Haeco at Xiamen airport.
The carrier operates 119 A380s, of which 92 are currently active. The others were parked during the COVID-19 pandemic, but are expected to be back into service by early 2024. Sixty-seven aircraft are slated for full cabin refurbishment with 16 so far been completed.
The airline plans to continue operating its double-deckers despite increasing orders for new-generation twinjet widebodies recently. Emirates bumped its B777X order book by 90 aircraft to 205 units, its B787 order book by five to 35, and its A350 order book by 15 aircraft to 65.

[metis20] 25/11/2023 16:40

Indiagolf12

Scroll down the screen for lengths of leases

Table updated every quarter following release of the Company Factsheet.

So last updated around end of September 2023.

Fascinating to see if the Money Week report is accurate re Emirates extending leases.

[eeza] 25/11/2023 11:06

Lots of distressed funds being forced to sell whatever they can to cover redemptions.

[skyship] 25/11/2023 09:51

Beginning to look pretty clear that this is now seriously and bizarrely under-valued.

Just why the seller has decided to exit is a mystery. Hopefully we'll see who it is; and then he/she will have to answer to fund-holders when the stock shoots ahead.

[hpcg] 25/11/2023 02:43

Sky - as was mentioned real trades were outside the spread. I did add a sliver more at 43.4 but anything larger I was quoted 43.9.

Everyone asking questions about leases, expiry, depreciation, interest rate sensitivity, residual value sensitivity, all this information is comprehensively covered in the financial reports. In terms of residuals, leases, other leasing companies provide data and commentary. With the A380 production line closed at the very least Emirates will buy bodies as donors. Tim Clark has said the A380 will remain core to Emirate's fleet for the next decade. Indeed from the Dubai air show:

"Sheikh Ahmed, however, said the airline would continue to expand its fleet with more A380s from lessors for ‘the right price. “The A380 will stay with us until at least 2035. We will continue to buy it for the right price,” he said."

Source

[langland] 24/11/2023 17:21

Some sign at end of day that mkt is improving. Still offered at 43 but there had been a bid at 42.71 for most of the day for 15k with next bid at 41.90 for size. Last half hour or so this changed to 42.77 for at least 50k. I could not test for higher because this was the max in that particular account.

[skyship] 24/11/2023 15:42

sb - yes, bizarre. Went on to buy 12,500 @ 43p; and was quoted 40.0p-48.4p !

Gave them a call and dealt at 43.0p.

[spittingbarrel] 24/11/2023 15:11

Strangely enough iDealing are offering 1000 shares at 46p or 48.4p for 2000 upwards.

[skyship] 24/11/2023 15:06

Actual spread currently 42.75p - 43.0p

[eeza] 24/11/2023 12:47

Late reported buy this morning of 100k @ 43p. Also late reported 250k buy from yesterday afternoon at 43.40p.

Whittling it down. Slowly.

[garbetklb] 24/11/2023 11:58

Thanks Andy - v helpful as I try to build a picture overall. I'm finding it quite a compelling investment case - relatively limited downside, good upside. Depending on how Emirates manage their fleet. And, I guess, an increased chance of the A380s having some value if returned by Emirates.

[skyship] 24/11/2023 11:07

11:05 - so far today 293k bt at 43p. The tap will end at some stage...

[eeza] 24/11/2023 10:58

Looks like the MM's have been given a slug to get rid of. Again.

[andyandyoj] 24/11/2023 08:35

It’s a little hard to find. I was intrigued that Metage got someone on the Amedeo Board so started looking at Metage but the website is a little obscure.

Then I found one of the Metage guys had gone to Australia and set up Staude Capital which launched a Global Value Fund which does good write ups every month and usually mentions aa4. The owner remains London based and does a lot jointly with Metage. It looks like the fund is run by Mirabella Financial Services but then I found on Yahoo a write up which (almost) clarifies it “ This describes “Global Value Fund Limited is an open ended equity mutual fund launched Mirabella Financial Services LLP. The fund is managed by Metage Capital Limited. It invests in the public equity markets across the globe. The fund also invests in the closed ended funds. It invests in the value stocks of companies. The fund employs a combination of both fundamental and quantitative analysis to create its portfolio. Global Value Fund Limited was launched in July 2014 and is domiciled in Australia.”

So it is a bit of a detective story, but my conclusion is that ultimately there is a very strong alignment between Metage and Staude and the Value Fund write ups are a very good source

[garbetklb] 24/11/2023 00:38

Andy - I'm struggling to find the fund being managed by Metage Capital...

[andyandyoj] 23/11/2023 19:03

And you may wonder why to focus on this fund. The key for me is
1. The fund is actually managed by Metage Capital “The fund is managed by Metage Capital Limited. It invests in the public equity markets across the globe.”
2. If you read the AA4 RNS from January (19 Jan 2023 07:00

RNS Number : 1778N) then you will see that the Independent Director nominated for experience in unlocking value and is in fact Lindsay Thomas Sharp (Tom Sharp) who happens to be a Director of said Metage Capital. Put that together with the Staude Value Fund write ups…

[andyandyoj] 23/11/2023 18:37

I found the Global value fund wrote up for October (not yet on their website).
hxxps://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02738923-2A1487258?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4. In summary it says that they were surprised by the October decline which they ascribe to a thinly traded stock having a sell order and not to the actual news which they see as positive. In fact they say the DNA2 sales of two aircraft were at a level much higher than they had forecast for the AA4 aircraft. As a result they see “a reasonable expectation for a much better outcome at AA4 than we had previously assumed.” I like that…. Add in that the DNA2 aircraft were in storage and likely to be used for parts etc and the Aa4 and dna stories are getting brighter!

[lord gnome] 23/11/2023 18:03

Sadly no, langland. You'll have to take my word for it ;-))

[langland] 23/11/2023 17:09

LG....also my thanks for that info. Do you have a link by any chance?

[langland] 23/11/2023 17:00

We have 6 A380s leased to Emirates (used to be 8 but we flogged two to Etihad for £65mn each). 2 777s are leased to them and there are 4 A350s leased to Thai.

[skyship] 23/11/2023 16:29

LG - thnx for that. The re-fit programme obviously great news; but wasn't aware that it involved four of our A380s.

Anyone know how many in total we lease to Emirates?

[lord gnome] 23/11/2023 15:20

I read with interest that 4 of the A380s that we lease to Emirates have been chosen for the Premium Economy refit programme. Sell or lease, this has to be good news for AA4 if a deal is done at a fair price. At least 4 of our planes aren't going out of service just yet and will keep flying for years to come.Apologies if you were already aware of this, but I certainly wasn't.