Amedeo Air Four Plus Share Discussion Threads

[pogue] 05/2/2024 11:30

Not thinking it will move the share price but hopefully gives more power to AA4 when the leases are uo to get better terms.

[clive7878] 05/2/2024 11:08

pogue - I am not surprised. One should be concerned when 2 737 Max crashed and now we see another one 737 of late has lost a door in flight. Also I believe I am right in saying that one also went down in China, flying from Kunming - more than concerning as I was there a few years back. Could be good for AA4 in leasing the Rolls Royce of planes the A380's which could have a longer future.

Believe though we may not see too much movement in the share price though going forward. It has fallen from 47p to 42p wiping out the last 3 dividend payments.

[pogue] 05/2/2024 10:00

Article suggesting Emirates is not very happy with Boeing. If you were unhappy with the safety of newly ordered planes you might consider keeping the older safer ones running it could be argued....

The boss of Emirates airline has warned Boeing is in the "last chance saloon", saying he had seen a "progressive decline" in its performance.....

[clive7878] 04/2/2024 17:47

With the prediction that the Bank of England may start to cut the interest rates in the summer & it cud finished the year down from 5.25 to 4.25%, together with the fact that gas & electricity prices cud fall by 20% - pushing down inflation further - it cud make AA4 dividend yield more attractive - thus pushing up the share price.

[2wild] 03/2/2024 12:44

Taking some profits on BSIF & UKW, solar and wind farms, an reinvested my AA4 and DNA2 Dividends here at Just under 42p This week giving me a yield of 19% after costs.

With an average 5-6 year delay on new deliveries of larger Aircraft.. residual values will increase substantially for older planes, in my view.

[pogue] 22/1/2024 18:29

Paul
the increased cost of transportation avoiding the Red Sea has yet to take full effect on costs. Iran are not yet threatening the Strait of Hormoz which will have a massive impact on world oil supplies thus the cost of everything, this has already started being mentioned in news I have seen some people can see it coming soon it will happen unless Iran can avoid war with America and the UK. I am not seeing the rosey picture you see for the rest of the year.

[clive7878] 22/1/2024 16:51

The plus factor at present is the Sunak is a financial guy. What will Labour do in power - & it does look like they will be in October - when many Councils are near bankruptcy. We have to balance the books, & can't spend spend, spend.
On teletext they expect energy costs to fall by 16% in April.

[paul_butcher1999] 22/1/2024 15:06

Pogue, the underlying situation hasnt changed. Inflation is still undershooting what the BOE expected - and will be below target soon. BOE will keep delaying interest rate cuts as it is understandably embarrassed that inflation overshot before so much compared to what it thought. All that means though is that when the cuts come they will be far harder and faster than expected - as they will have left it too late (again). Too slow responding when inflation rose and now too slow when it falls. End result of all this is that by the end of this year rates will be very low again as they try to bring back a pulse in the UK economy ...

[pogue] 18/1/2024 17:54

clive
interest rates will not fall as soon as everyone had expected now that is the problem. Inflation went up a touch yesterday however the outlook has turned since the Houthis decided to stop shipping in the Red Sea. If this escalates, which it appears the US and UK want to do, then Iran may get drawn in then the Strait of Hormuz is closed and inflation takes a serious spike up. The outlook for interest rates short term is not down but remain where they are at best. Small part of my reason for selling.

[clive7878] 18/1/2024 17:44

Last time to sell to get the dividend was yesterday, Wednesday, 17th,
that's why the share price dropped today, thought that was elementary especially
more noticeable with AA4.

Hopefully tomorrow and going forward the share price should remain static, the last 2 dividends before, the share price has fallen more than the dividend being paid, but I would have thought that this should not continue. Obviously if the share price falls the true net gain is less than the 18% currently being paid.

The $64 question if one holds until July 2026 having collected a 20p dividend = 10 quarters at 2p - what is the real asset value going to be then, what is the share price going to be then, and what is the dividend going to be going forward. Mind you as inflation has fallen from 11.1 to 4%, the B of E should consider cutting interest rates - reported to be 1% lower by the end of 2024, if by the end of 2025 the B of E rate was say 3.5%, then that would make the share price even more attractive with an 18.8% dividend, as the banks would be quick to cut their interest rates payable then. But then what else in the pipeline for AA4 should increase the share price though. Much depends on the Emirates deal in July 2026.

[pogue] 18/1/2024 16:14

Never worried about it before to be honest just kept an eye out for the cash to arrive in my account as I never traded divi shares. Here I need to sell down some and they are about this price range so was trying to sell at a 2p profit so I didnt lose out incase there was a larger fall. Sold most. Learnt something new though.

[kenmitch] 18/1/2024 15:14

pogue

It’s basic must know information.

Ex div means what it says, excluding the next dividend.

So it’s very easy to understand.

If you buy on ex dividend dsy you will not get the dividend.

But if you sell on ex dividend day you will get the next dividend.

So if wanting to get the next dividend the final day you can buy to qualify for you to get it, is the day BEFORE the share goes ex dividend.

Ex dividend days are almost always on Thursdays.

The record date is a check to see all the investors eligible for the next dividend. The record date is almost always the day after ex dividend day.

[pogue] 18/1/2024 12:42

scrwal
I always thought it was ex divi day when you got the entitlement however I have been selling this one down into the rise so have been watching dates more carefully I normally keep divi payers long term.
I forgot about T+1 it seems mind you further down the link you gave it does its best to confuse people. From the summary...

'The record date is when the company determines the shareholders entitled to a dividend. The ex-date is usually the day before the record date and determines which shareholders are entitled to a payment.'

[hpcg] 18/1/2024 12:27

r.e. 957 If you held at the close yesterday. I think however this is what you meant. If you bought in the opening auction you don't get the dividend.

[scrwal] 18/1/2024 12:27

pogue
you should read this

[cassini] 18/1/2024 12:21

Surely the record date is a technicality - it is today that matters, ex-div day, as to who gets the dividend. If you held at market open today, you get the dividend.

[pogue] 18/1/2024 12:14

Ex divi today but record date is tomorrow, selling today does not get you the divi.

From last RNS
The Board is pleased to announce an interim dividend of 2.00p per ordinary share. The shares will be marked ex-dividend on 18 January 2024 and the dividend will be paid on or around 31 January 2024 to shareholders on the register as at the close of business on 19 January 2024.

[clive7878] 18/1/2024 12:05

The dividend yield should protect the share price even though it has gone ex dividend today. Hopefully we will not see the share price drop more than the dividend pay out, as per what has occurred in the last 2 cases.

[scrwal] 16/1/2024 12:51

Emirates entered into a variety of agreements with multiple suppliers for the ongoing A380 fleet maintenance but did not specify how many planes. It is likely that the fleet will end up being just the upgraded ones going into the 2030s or earlier with the rest being retired but which ones will depend on their conditions.


Unfortunately we have no idea as to whether any of the 380s will be bought or leases extended but the board does seem pessimistic about lease extensions as stated in the interim accounts issued last month."Negotiate extended or new leases, with an associated aircraft refinancing, provided that they produce a more favourable return to investors than disposals and subject to Shareholders being prepared to extend the life of the portfolio and therefore the return of their investment. Due to high interest rates and lower loan to value advance rates, especially on out of production aircraft, this is likely to be difficult and would carry significant execution risk and cost."

[clive7878] 16/1/2024 10:49

Also the question if owned by Emirates what will they pay for them and what will be returned to shareholders, or will they buy others to be leased in place, and if continued to be leased what will the dividend be from July 2026 onwards.
I'm happy with the 18% dividend in the meantime which I expect to be paid for the next 10 quarters at least.

[scrwal] 15/1/2024 12:35

The first 2 leases to expire are planes that will be used for spare parts as they are not included in the upgrade program.

[2wild] 14/1/2024 14:16

Also, Airbus currently has a 6 year delivery estimate On new orders. Therefore, older planes will inevitably be in service for longer.

[robsy2] 13/1/2024 08:09

Saw this article on Boeing and thought it helps make the case for AA4 customers continuing to lease AA4 airbus planes.

“ For those who haven’t followed the Alaska Airlines story, a brief recap. On Friday, the plane (a Boeing 737 Max 9 model) took off from Portland and had reached 16,300 feet when when part of the fuselage fell away. The 737 Max 9 planes are designed with spaces for either four or six doors, dependent on how many seats the airline choses to put in the plane, with unused spaces filled by what are known as door plugs. The door plugs (manufactured by Spirit AeroSystems) are bolted into the exterior shell of the plane and shouldn’t ever need to be removed. It was one of these door plugs which blew off over Orgeon and has now been found in a resident’s back garden.

In the aftermath of the incident, Alaska Airlines has checked its entire fleet of 737 Max 9s and found ‘loose hardware’ on several of its planes. United Airlines (one of the biggest carriers in the US) has followed suit and found similar issues. The US has now grounded all 737 Max 9 planes.

This isn’t the first time Boeing’s Max fleet has faced issues. In April last year, the aerospace giant halted the deliveries of the model after Spirit AeroSystems warned of quality issues in its supply chain. At the time, the company admitted that these quality problems could date back to 2019. In March of that year, a 737 Max fell out of the sky shortly after take-off from Addis Ababa. That followed a similar incident in October 2018 when a Lion Air flight (also a 737 Max model) disappeared in the Indonesian Ocean. Both accidents were found to have been caused by a faulty bit of software, written into the automation system of the plane which forced the nose down. Three days after the crash in Ethiopia, Boeing’s global fleet of 737 Max planes were grounded. Pilots who were asked to fly the planes to storage facilities were understandably hesitant.

In the last few years, the problems with the 737 Max have been costly for Boeing - which is ironic considering the plane was originally designed as a cheap way of competing with the growing popularity of the Airbus A320. In the mid 2000s, Airbus launched the A320 (a single aisle commercial plane), to much fanfare. Boeing - under immense pressure to compete with the fuel-efficient A320 - accelerated the development of its new plane by using the fuselage of old 737s and adding new engines and software enhancements. In addition to lower design and manufacturing costs, this also meant Boeing didn’t need to invest in additional pilot training.

But Boeing’s accelerated design programme coincided with poor quality control, leading to a plane which has been battered by safety issues. Critics have called this a prime example of ‘normalisation of deviance’ - when poor or unsafe practices which ‘deviate’; from the correct way of operating become normalised. At Boeing there have been accusations of a ‘culture of silence’ where poor manufacturing practices haven’t been called out.

And the company has paid the price. Despite being Boeing’s highest volume plane, the 737 Max generates low profits and negative cash flow. Cash costs have mounted as the company attempts to rectify quality errors and claw back the mistakes made in the plane’s early days.”