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Victrex Share Discussion Threads
Showing 501 to 519 of 525 messages
yep, the good thing being that if the market always priced shares accurately, there would be a lot less money to be made. Finding good companies at attractive prices is what it is all about.|
|Just a cheeky tongue in cheek jibe NJ.
. . . Your post sounds like Neil Woodford's response to his poorly performing fund for the year just ended.
. . . He said he chose good shares with good fundamentals but it was the poorer-in-fundamentals shares that rose instead of his :) :)|
|Wound up, not me, not over an investment.
A couple of comments. You do not need to back every share that rises in price to do well on the markets. You just need to select good companies with good fundamentals and prospects, at the right price.
The fundamentals of VCT have not changed since the results in December. After years of growth, it is now facing significant headwinds that are threatening both revenues and profitability. It failed in the last set of results to offset reduced volumes in the consumer sector and is predicting further falls in volumes in 2017. Customers are also looking to switch to cheaper alternatives to PEEK.
The increase in share price since the results simply makes this a more expensive and financially more risky company to own than it was then. I have no idea where the share price will go over the next six months (nobody does...), all I know is that VCT was too expensive in December for me to take a position here and that there are better investment opportunities for me to chose from.
|£20 will be no easy job. I think it'll take several attempts and even then, at this stage in early January, I'm not sure if it wouldn't end up as a re-visit job.
. . . Who's to say? - Might sail through without so much as a backward glance and wind-up njb67 no end, for being too cautious and missing out :)
. . . Whatever, this current long-legged bull run in VCT is quite impressive though.|
|Time to crash through the £20 barrier. Ok tip over the barrier, ok limp gently , ok ok|
|Results largely as anticipated. Revenue, profit and EPS all fell slightly, while dividend was held flat year on year. I was wrong about VCT benefiting from a positive currency impact in 2016 as they hedge up to 12 months in advance. This will flow into 2017 results (circa £15m, or 6% uplift in revenue vs 2016).
Overall, I will remain on the sidelines. The three concerns I have are:
- continued reduction in consumer segment volumes
- lack of future visibility of volumes in their core and growth segments
- impact of new competitors on volumes and pricing
Given the reduction in revenue, profit and EPS this year and the possibility that this trend will continue into 2017 at least, I could not justify (to myself) paying 17x 2016 earnings (after adjusting for 74p net cash per share).
Remains on the watchlist and will revisit at the next set of results.
Good lucj all who hold.|
|I bought quite a few around £14 in May/ June. Always in market for more at that or lower based on these results.|
|The currency impact will certainly be positive, circa 97% of sales are outside of the UK. Perhaps a ten to fifteen percent uplift on exchange rate depending on how much they have used hedges. They have also signaled some cost cutting schemes too.
The watch out for me is how demand in the consumer sector holds up. This accounted for around 40% of sales (1680/4217 tonnes) in 2015. We know from the trading statement that consumer sector sales were 30% lower in 2016 compared to 2015 and are expected to be significantly lower still in 2017. VCT have reported a 4% fall in revenue in 2016, so growth elsewhere was not sufficient to offset the consumer segment. With a further fall in demand predicted in this sector in 2017, VCT are going to have to perform extremely well to maintain their top and bottom line at existing level let alone grow them.
Trading at circa 18x 2016 EPS, with a high degree of uncertainty and potentially limited short term growth prospects, VCT currently is too expensive for my liking.|
Ha ha. I had circa 8k shares. Yep, I would be better of if I had sold later in the day (an hour, perhaps a lesson) but my reason for exiting is independent of the share price I will keep this on my watch list as I like the company. What I do not like, hence exiting, is the lack of visibility in the consumer segment of future revenue and hence overall profitability.
I will take my 10% profit and move on. I wish those that hold here the very best.
|Now 1753. Hope you did not have too large a holding.|
|Sold out this morning (@1621), taking a circa 10% profit. The lack of visibility on revenues in the consumer segment materially increases the downside risk, so no longer one for me.
|Certainly going somewhere fast today following trading update.|
|......somewhat disappointed with these......going nowhere fast !|
|Been watching this one for some time and have today taken up a modest position. Good ROCE.|
|Article in Evening Standard may be of interest re shorting stock by some hedge funds.
|deadly - yes, looks like some analysts were overly pessimistic. As I said in post 11 things are very uncertain right now. But BREXIT will be decided in a few weeks, that's one variable out of the way. (Unless 'they' don't like the result and decide to copy the Irish and try again next year ha ha)|
|poor results today but price rises. Must be better than expected?|
|Taken a bit of a hit today. The oil & gas market is going to take time to sort. The Saudis and others playing silly games. Also I'm not all that optomistic on a 'consuner' recovery anytime soon.
Next divi(which is only the interim)is quite a long way off so I'm just going to resist the temptation to top up. Good company, good product, but markets are very jittery right now.|
7 April 2016
Victrex plc: H1 pre-close trading update
'On track for expected H2 improvement'
Victrex plc, an innovative world leader in high performance polymer solutions, today releases its first half year (H1) and pre-close trading update ahead of its interim results on 16 May 2016.
In line with the Group's guidance at its Q1 IMS, Victrex's first half year performance was down on the prior year. Q2 was robust with volumes excluding Consumer Electronics flat compared to the record prior year, despite the weaker performance in Oil & Gas.
The re-phasing of Consumer Electronics volumes to the second half year (H2), together with the tougher first half comparatives and worsening outlook in Oil & Gas, led to Group revenue declining by 11% to £117.0m (H1 2015: £131.6m). H1 Group volumes were down 13% to 1,770 tonnes (H1 2015: 2,028 tonnes).
We remain encouraged that the performance in our industrial markets outside of Electronics and Oil & Gas was solid, with Transport markets in growth. In our Medical business (Invibio), performance in our core Spine market was broadly similar to the prior year. Invibio revenue for the first half was £25.2m (H1 2015: £25.9m).
Our expectation for an improved second half year reflects both the robust Q2 performance and the re-phasing of Consumer Electronics volumes. Consumer Electronics volumes will be phased well into the second half, ahead of product launch cycles. This opportunity remains attractive for the current year and we expect to have a better view on the scale of volumes by our May interim results. This will provide a clearer view of whether Consumer Electronics has the potential to be similar to the second half of 2015.
David Hummel, Chief Executive of Victrex, said: "We retain our view of an overall improvement in the second half and are comfortable with current expectations for the full year as a whole."|