Victrex Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 20/6/2019 17:54

Massive 500,000 share trade today - share price up 2.6% so guessing was a buy or shorts being bought back?

[justiceforthemany] 11/6/2019 22:57

This will get taken over for £30/share IMO. No debt, high cash flow and operating margin. Important products. Scope for high growth.

[artibee] 04/3/2019 12:55

citi downgrade

[yertiz] 09/2/2019 11:36

You are not alone....I'm invested in Vitrex and have been for a number of years, only a small proportion of my portfolio but happy to hold.

[srichardson8] 09/2/2019 10:38

As this post is so quiet - I just don't think many private investors hold it - I shall be indiscreet and post a reply to my recent enquiry on dividend policy - as any outcome is unlikely to affect my decision to stay in.

viz.

Our dividend policy is to grow the regular dividend in line with earnings per share and then pay a special dividend if there are no other uses for the cash within the business, and only if net cash at the end of the year exceeds £85m.

More detail is in the Annual Report on page 17:

[pjmurf] 09/2/2019 07:20

Thanks for the reply sr I to am positive on the long term outlook. Short term there are clouds on the horizon everywhere, having my money in an established dividend paying company diversified across a number of industries is as good a place as any. Will take the time to re-read the report over the weekend but would probably buy more on any dip.

[srichardson8] 06/2/2019 11:10

for the record i thought that the trading update was quite upbeat. They have had a bad quarter and half year earnings, which are against pretty tough comps from last year, will be down. But some positive noises on the second half and indeed Q2. I was very encouraged by comments on the developments in knee tests and 3D printing, and forward movement in the automotive gear business. I am of course a holder so tend to be glass full on Victrex but there is a moat here, the business has an enviable record of high returns and I am prepared to wait give that the yield should now be around 5% (though one imagines the regular dividend will barely be maintained and the special dividend could be under threat). My guess - and it is only that, as are analysts' forecasts which vary wildly - is that the total annual dividend may be around 96p for the year.

[srichardson8] 01/2/2019 22:13

It will come good in the end but the gearing to auto/industrial over the next - well - hopefully 12-18 months is not good for top line. To me the share is pricing in a 30% profits drop next year which I suspect may be too optimistic. Probably time to look at the last annual report but...I am sneaking a peek now to remind me
98% of revenues from outside the uk - mildly positive
new businesses -
big dental contract with Straumann, first European car with Peek gears, offshore Brazil and (generally) positive news likely on flexible pipe business
core business
the main industrial business depends on oil & gas (especially onshore) 680t, transport (esp aerospace)& automotive 1000t - plus a hodgepodge to what they call value added resellers 1800 tonnes.
medical always seems to struggle to get revenues moving but seems to have brilliant margins. They are trialing new products but seem to be held back by the US spine business. It is much smaller than industrial but this may be the division to confound my s-t pessimism. I do hope so.
A strong niche company with fairly big headwinds one would guess. Not cheap s-t if one believes earnings are likely to splutter but good returns over time. A tough one.

[pjmurf] 01/2/2019 21:14

Very few posts on here for such a good company. Doubled my money here over the last few years despite missing the peak. Bought back in recently for the Divi, thought I'd beat the crowd but turns out there isn't one. Anyone with any thoughts/ insight lurking here?

[9degrees] 30/1/2019 18:37

ex div tomorrow

[robinnicolson] 29/11/2018 09:15

From The Times this morning:

There was no sign of relief for Victrex plc (VCT), the supplier of plastic polymers to the aviation, oil, gas, automobile and technology sectors. The FTSE 250 company, whose share price is down 29% since September, fell 146p to £23.88 after analysts published opinions ahead of its full-year results next week. Companies in the car, semiconductor and Apple supply chains have cut their guidance recently as demand has slowed, analysts at Barclays noted. However, the valuation of Victrex, which sells between 20% and 30% of its volume in those markets, “is right at the top end of its historical range”. The bank cut its target price to £23.20 from £23.80, saying that it expected the results to reflect that demand is cyclical and that valuation “needs to  adjust to reflect that reality”. ;Analysts at Liberum estimated that more than two thirds of Victrex’s revenues come from cyclical markets and noted that its earnings had suffered in 2009, after the global crisis. They still issued a “buy” rating, though, saying that cashflow had been strong, special dividends were likely to recur and the product pipeline looked “promisingR21;.

[robinnicolson] 28/11/2018 17:56

Slowing global growth and today there was a broker downgrade, Barclays cutting target price to 2320p from 2380p.

[artibee] 28/11/2018 16:32

hmm, what's going on?

[godwin2] 13/10/2018 12:17

December 4th Prelims

[robinnicolson] 12/10/2018 11:55

That Morgan Stanley downgrade note can be read over on the FT Alphaville webpage.

[crazycoops] 12/10/2018 11:26

DAB, the other 4 were SOM, GAW, XPP and IPX - they are all core holdings, as is VCT. Croda is on my watchlist.

[robinnicolson] 12/10/2018 11:20

Looking at the weekly momentum and relative strength charts for Victrex, they indicate the steepest decline since IG Markets have available data (1996)...extremely oversold!!

[dab26] 12/10/2018 10:44

'Morning Crazycoops,

Would it be too rude to ask which the other four are, just out of curiosity? Always looking for quality watchlist candidates if people are willing to share.

I've been surprised by the Victrex share-rice action this week. Obviously there is the general market environment, but it felt particularly severe here.

In case you were not aware, my best guess was that is has been read-over from the PPG announcement in the US:


Another speciality chemical company, but other than that not fully convinced about the appropriateness of the comparison quite yet. Croda also got hit quite hard, so I wonder whether - as the market was falling - it simply became a case of Chemical=Bad perceptions.

FYI re Q3:


Final results early Dec I would guess.

Hope some of that helps.

Very best,

DB

[crazycoops] 12/10/2018 08:36

Morgan Stanley have downgraded VCT to underweight with price target of 2300p which probably explains why they aren't bouncing with the other four "quality compounders" I topped up yesterday. Q3 update next week I imagine?

[srichardson8] 04/10/2018 09:40

Thanks also.

[artibee] 03/10/2018 19:37

Thanks. That must be it then. Maybe wait for the dust to settling then top up?

[robinnicolson] 03/10/2018 18:39

There was a downgrade by Merrill Lynch from 'buy' to 'neutral' on valuation grounds.
They said that outperformance of 40% in the past 12 months has priced in Victrex's 'quality premium', with the shares at a 56% premium to European peers at 25 times 2019 earnings.
They also see possible new-term risk to volumes from the weak auto market and foreign exchange headwinds lasting into 2020.