Victrex Share Discussion Threads

[arf dysg] 09/6/2017 17:34

Does this company do anything?

[velod] 19/4/2017 21:59

Sheeit!!! In for it now :(

[jontyone] 19/4/2017 17:34

Chief exec. retiring and last time I looked had about 4% of shares in the company. Could be interesting times ahead.

[mw8156] 19/2/2017 21:27

Interesting article on iii by Beddard; seems they are moving up the value chain by making components (like Gooch and Housego) not just raw Peek and he is sceptical of the LTIP scheme and so am I; just wonder how it can be much more of an incentive to the chief exec for instance who already has a stake of c £57m at the present price.

[qvg] 19/2/2017 16:21

when is VRS expected to make a profit??

[shavian] 17/2/2017 15:11

Anyone still monitoring this? Moneyweek tipping Victrix as a great long-term value play.Their development of PEEK may be further enhanced in future with the addition of graphene, if current discussions come to fruition.

[redips2] 09/2/2017 10:15

Just in case anyone has the slightest interest here .

[velod] 26/1/2017 21:49

Good post njb. You got into TW. a shade lower than me, there :)

[njb67] 26/1/2017 17:54

I am not sure I agree with that, I have done rather nicely out of it over the years. The key things form my perspective is to be disciplined in buying good companies at favourable prices, being patient and having a long term investment perspective.

If it were not for sentiment driven market mis-pricing, I would not have been able to pick up some of my best performing stocks. In the aftermath of the financial crash in 2006, I bought CKN at circa 450 - and held to around the £20 mark, when it became over valued (in my opinion at least). More recently, the Brexit vote hammered house builders, among others. Managed to add TW. at 130. I believe that this will increase in value over the coming years, while the attractive dividends all mount up. I also did nicely on RIO and RDSA - both well run dividend paying companies - when the resource sector was out of favour.

There have also been plenty of duds, and some very slow burners, but over the years, the funds have kept growing and the dividends are almost enough to live on.

It is though best played as a very long game

[velod] 26/1/2017 17:27

Njb, From what I've seen in my own experience, I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the more intelligent you are, the more unarguably accurate your logic, the less a place there is for such a person in stockmarket dealings.

[njb67] 20/1/2017 15:37

velod

yep, the good thing being that if the market always priced shares accurately, there would be a lot less money to be made. Finding good companies at attractive prices is what it is all about.

[velod] 13/1/2017 17:35

Just a cheeky tongue in cheek jibe NJ.

. . . Your post sounds like Neil Woodford's response to his poorly performing fund for the year just ended.

. . . He said he chose good shares with good fundamentals but it was the poorer-in-fundamentals shares that rose instead of his :) :)

[njb67] 13/1/2017 14:48

Wound up, not me, not over an investment.

A couple of comments. You do not need to back every share that rises in price to do well on the markets. You just need to select good companies with good fundamentals and prospects, at the right price.

The fundamentals of VCT have not changed since the results in December. After years of growth, it is now facing significant headwinds that are threatening both revenues and profitability. It failed in the last set of results to offset reduced volumes in the consumer sector and is predicting further falls in volumes in 2017. Customers are also looking to switch to cheaper alternatives to PEEK.

The increase in share price since the results simply makes this a more expensive and financially more risky company to own than it was then. I have no idea where the share price will go over the next six months (nobody does...), all I know is that VCT was too expensive in December for me to take a position here and that there are better investment opportunities for me to chose from.

GLA.

[velod] 12/1/2017 01:11

£20 will be no easy job. I think it'll take several attempts and even then, at this stage in early January, I'm not sure if it wouldn't end up as a re-visit job.

. . . Who's to say? - Might sail through without so much as a backward glance and wind-up njb67 no end, for being too cautious and missing out :)

. . . Whatever, this current long-legged bull run in VCT is quite impressive though.

[tdog1975] 11/1/2017 08:23

Time to crash through the £20 barrier. Ok tip over the barrier, ok limp gently , ok ok

[njb67] 06/12/2016 08:09

Results largely as anticipated. Revenue, profit and EPS all fell slightly, while dividend was held flat year on year. I was wrong about VCT benefiting from a positive currency impact in 2016 as they hedge up to 12 months in advance. This will flow into 2017 results (circa £15m, or 6% uplift in revenue vs 2016).

Overall, I will remain on the sidelines. The three concerns I have are:
- continued reduction in consumer segment volumes
- lack of future visibility of volumes in their core and growth segments
- impact of new competitors on volumes and pricing

Given the reduction in revenue, profit and EPS this year and the possibility that this trend will continue into 2017 at least, I could not justify (to myself) paying 17x 2016 earnings (after adjusting for 74p net cash per share).

Remains on the watchlist and will revisit at the next set of results.

Good lucj all who hold.

[scobak] 14/10/2016 19:44

I bought quite a few around £14 in May/ June. Always in market for more at that or lower based on these results.

[njb67] 13/10/2016 08:20

The currency impact will certainly be positive, circa 97% of sales are outside of the UK. Perhaps a ten to fifteen percent uplift on exchange rate depending on how much they have used hedges. They have also signaled some cost cutting schemes too.

The watch out for me is how demand in the consumer sector holds up. This accounted for around 40% of sales (1680/4217 tonnes) in 2015. We know from the trading statement that consumer sector sales were 30% lower in 2016 compared to 2015 and are expected to be significantly lower still in 2017. VCT have reported a 4% fall in revenue in 2016, so growth elsewhere was not sufficient to offset the consumer segment. With a further fall in demand predicted in this sector in 2017, VCT are going to have to perform extremely well to maintain their top and bottom line at existing level let alone grow them.

Trading at circa 18x 2016 EPS, with a high degree of uncertainty and potentially limited short term growth prospects, VCT currently is too expensive for my liking.

[njb67] 11/10/2016 21:45

Scobak

Ha ha. I had circa 8k shares. Yep, I would be better of if I had sold later in the day (an hour, perhaps a lesson) but my reason for exiting is independent of the share price I will keep this on my watch list as I like the company. What I do not like, hence exiting, is the lack of visibility in the consumer segment of future revenue and hence overall profitability.

I will take my 10% profit and move on. I wish those that hold here the very best.

njb

[scobak] 11/10/2016 20:39

Now 1753. Hope you did not have too large a holding.

[njb67] 11/10/2016 09:37

Sold out this morning (@1621), taking a circa 10% profit. The lack of visibility on revenues in the consumer segment materially increases the downside risk, so no longer one for me.

GLA