Trinity Mirror Share Discussion Threads

[philjeans] 16/12/2016 07:18

Agreed Harry - some very encouraging news in there!

Should see the shares up today!

[harry_david] 16/12/2016 07:15

Good to see the advertising pick up after the Brexit slowdown in the third quarter. Ridiculously underpriced.

[spoole5] 15/12/2016 11:25

Trading update tomorrow

[foot in mouth] 14/12/2016 14:09

Jambo, can you paste it here? a premium account is needed to view it.

[philjeans] 08/12/2016 19:58

Pension deficit dropping now as long term interest rates and bond yields start to rise.

Miles to go!

[patience a virtue] 08/12/2016 16:16

Trading update on the 16th, managed to double my holding in the last couple of months, confident of a great return.

[spoole5] 08/12/2016 11:44

Lovely chart developing here.

[harry_david] 04/12/2016 06:45

Excellent post Extrader. I think I recall the company indicating a one per cent upward move having a £200 million impact on the deficit. Today we are probably about neutral on last years calculation with the recent move offsetting the drop earlier in the year. If the Trump effect crosses the Atlantic with a full breeze we could see a lively impact soon.

[extrader] 03/12/2016 19:53

Hi prokartace,

I think, with respect, that you've got the wrong end of the pension/bond stick....

Imagine a situation pre GFC (2008), where a company had actuarial obligations of £ 100 million (life expectancy of pensioners x payout x inflation adjustments) all put to a Net Present Value.

A responsible trustee would want to see that the company pension had assets with an equivalent or greater NPV. So it would typically have a mix of shares (for potential capital growth/inflation hedge) and bonds (for 'certainty' of payout). Suppose the split is 50/50, so you want bonds with NPV of £ 50m. Your bonds are all paying 5 %.

Fast forward to today : your existing and future pensioners are living longer, so you now have higher NPV for your liabilities.

The drop in interest rates to 1% or less affects (= increases) the cost/amount of bonds you need to buy/hold to cover your obligations, your assets have a lower NPV, so you have a growing pension (accounting/actuarial) deficit.

This is where TI is now.

A rise in interest rates will reduce the capital value of existing bonds going forward (but not the actual return) and the new bonds you have to buy will offer a higher return, causing the the pension deficit to shrink.

If interest rates rose sufficiently, that would be likely be because of inflation (good for shares), a rise in bond yield and a further reduction in the actuarial deficit, possibly even leading to an eventual pension surplus and a 'pension holiday'. (As a thought experiment, think back to the high inflation days of the late 70's and early 80's, when many companies took advantage of this , to their - or rather, their pensioners' - subsequent cost.)

Not good for the pensioners, probably, but not bad for TNI shareholders....

ATB

[prokartace] 03/12/2016 17:27

patienceavirtue. Just so you know, rises in bond yields lead to bigger falls in bond prices and as most of the funds have to be at least 90% invested this would lead to a widening of the pension deficit!
A 1%(100basis points) rise in yield from 1.4% to 2.4% would result in a 10 yr bond losing 9%
a 1% rise in yield from 1.75% to 2.75% would result in a 15yr bond falling 12%

Good luck with your pension deficit

[gfrae] 02/12/2016 14:32

Thanks,So they bought from JPMorgan,who have apparently sold 5 million odd shares recently.

[mrx9000] 02/12/2016 11:00

They increased... it was their large trade on wednesday.

[gfrae] 02/12/2016 09:54

Confused by the Aviva announcement,despite rereading it....have they increased or decreased their holding ?

[foot in mouth] 27/11/2016 03:49

There is word that all their properties are freehold!

[frew34] 26/11/2016 11:59

so this is the company that owns the mirror.co.uk right? What other businesses/websites does it own?

so far I've found: owning three national titles - the Daily and Sunday Mirror, and the Sunday People - plus the Scottish Daily Record and many of England’s largest regional papers, including the Manchester Evening. They also seem to have acquired regional newspaper group Local World.

Strong net cash inflows resulted in net debt (4) falling by £44.9 million from £92.9 million to £48.0 million. The Group held cash balances of £85.3 million at the period end.

Pension Deficit: The IAS19 pension deficit increased by £120.8 million to £426.0 million (£349.5 million net of deferred tax) driven by a fall in long term interest rates. Alongside the share buyback, the Board has agreed to contribute a minimum of £5 million or up to a maximum of 75% of the share buyback as additional funding to the defined benefit pension schemes.

What else am i missing?

is this company still on the hook for the £41m to cover the hacking claims?

[foot in mouth] 25/11/2016 17:13

Got my divi today! That'll do nicely!

[harry_david] 19/11/2016 22:11

Snicker, I am like you in not knowing the number but it is pleasing the payments are now realistic. Even if the ambulance chasers get twice as much as their clients the current provision covers 600 claimants.

[smicker] 19/11/2016 16:50

Harry.
Is there anywhere one can find the total number of cases outstanding.

At one point shorters, EK i think among them, were indicating there could be 1000 cases. That would give 20m as an upper limit which compares with 500m which was given as the sum paid out by the Murdoch group.

I think it also needs to be noted that these cases are likely to fall due over a number of years which also spreads the impact. I'm likely to go back in here when the selling stops or the buyback is conducted seriously

[harry_david] 18/11/2016 09:57

Hacking, 29 settled for half a mil, sounds ok to me

[philjeans] 15/11/2016 09:04

wot - no buybacks?

BUY the dips - value will out eventually.

[mrx9000] 14/11/2016 15:04

It was 292 shares wasn't it?

What you have to look at is the bigger picture... for example what I see is that they have been increasing at they go... take a look...


They started with about £30k in September, took it to £60, then £80k, then upto £100km then around £135k, then recently £175k... clear as day if you ask me.

[harry_david] 11/11/2016 17:08

Barclays are useless! Peel Hunt will get their chance soon I hope.Right now it's all about interest rates. Trinity is the best way of shorting bonds, a one percent move cuts the pension deficit by about £200 mil.