Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity Mirror LSE:TNI London Ordinary Share GB0009039941 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 85.70 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
85.00 86.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Media 623.20 81.90 23.00 3.7 259
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 85.70 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
27/5/201819:06TNI - The recovery thread!2,287
22/4/201613:49Trinity Mirror5,165
13/12/201217:37Trinity looks good!!17
21/6/201214:12MIRROR DOWN THE DRAIN2
21/6/201214:09What is the going rate for contempt of court?6

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cityconindex: This is an opinion from another site not mine and seems relevant DYOR Date posted Tuesday 12:50 Subject at 80p great acquisiton and chart strength Opinion Strong BUY Message I've spent a lot of time analysing this TNI acquisition of N&S and concluded that it creates a lot of value. it is very hard to know how to value TNI due to the moving parts - declining industry, pension deficit (PD), debt, good dividend, share buy backs. i have 5 basic reasons to feel there might be share price strength from here. 1 - analysis of acquisition 2 - discounted cash flow 3 - Banks, Pension Trustees, Pension regulator 4 - interpretation of mgt 5 - technical analysis of chart 1. the basics of the deal are simple enough. TNI is buying N&S on the same multiple of its own valuation. N&S is arguably a poor quality business but it has a broader spread of revenues, including digital, and a much lower PD. The big figure is £20m of savings. It is logical there will be saving by merging 2 businesses and the value of these savings i estimate to be 35p a share! 2. i have modelled TNI and N7S using discounted CASH flows. Fairly simplistically. I assumed that sales would decline faster than the recent rates, and i assumed that costs would only decline at half the rate of sales. For 6 years TNI has managed to reduce costs as quickly as sales so i see both of these assumptions as conservative. This model shows that TNI will hit zero profitability in 2022! No-one doubts that TNI is in decline but i don't here much talk that they will not be profitable in 4 years time. So again this seems conservative assumptions. The sum total of the CASH flows in this scenario is £600m which covers the current equity valuation, debt and PD with room to spare - i.e. it implies the current equity value is undervalued by about 10p a share. Interestingly when one adds in N&S and the £20m cost saving - this extends the 'life of TNI' by 2 years! And adding the sum of the declining CASH flows is £900m which with the debt from acquisition, the payments to N&S Pension, and N&S pension implies the current equity value is undervalued by about 40p a share (on the increased equity base post acquisition) so this model may or may not be accurate but it doe again imply that the acquisition adds 30p to the value of TNI compared to pre acquisition. 3. Having just been repaid in full the £400m from a few years back the banks have finaced the majority of this deal and lent TNI more money - surely this implies they are comfortable with the future CASH flows of the business. The Pension trustees for all 6 pension schemes involved have given approval of the deal. I compare this to the delays at Coats and the post Carillon world. They have approved the deal and they will also allow TNI to increase its dividend and make share buy backs and a return of capital (hidden further down the documents) Even the Pension regulator have given the deal its approval and also must feel that TNi has sufficient surpklus CASH flows to be allowed to pay dividends, buy back shares and plan a return of capital. 4. Mgt were very confident at the analysts briefing. They have quoted £20m cost savings but have said that there are (quote) "very, very, comfortable" with that assumption. the iii article is the first to mention the assets being bought £300m of assets... now i don't know what exactly those are but there must be some surplus machines, buildings, land ... TNI is valued at 200m so 10m or 20m from asset disposlas is very significant to the share price. 5. TNI share price has been volatile. not surprise - a fixed cost business in decline with high debt and high pension responsibilities. It has also been in decline for the last 3 years post the 2009 bounce from the 20p lows. The situation today though is critically changed. TNI revenues have held up better than forecast 5 years ago TNI mgt has demonstrated their ability to cut costs Debt (pre acquisition) was down to only £10m (from £400m 6 years back!) Pension liabilities have been partly insured, future rises have been capped and the global equity sell off last week, the UK comments today are all expecting future interest rate rises faster than expected - rises mean lower pension deficits!! And TNI has shown it can be a consolidator in the industry. This enables it to buy businesses cheaply and take out costs. As the newspaper market gets tougher more and more smaller players will have to capitulate and sell to the highest (and only!) bidder TNI The positivity is all reflected in the chart. The price has now risen from 66p to 80p on big volume and a rise above 80p is a break out from the downtrend and confirms that TNI would actually be in an UPTREND from the lows of 2012 at 20p. The upside - 120p short term and 200p over a couple of years is possible is the cost cutting and asset disposals go well and interest rates rise. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL TNI is in my top5
extrader: Hi CJohn, .. I would so love to have a sunny temperament like yours. Hah ! My comment was made on the perhaps simplistic basis that changes to interest rates (upwards) would have a greater = lowering effect on 100% of the liabilities (pension obligations)than on the smaller %age of bond-related assets to pay for them, hence closing the actuarial and accounting deficits...... Of course, we might also start to experience in the UK the recent American phenomenon of static, not to say falling life expectancy.....which would also (?) be good for the TNI share price....(assuming pensioners died faster than readers). You can see why my partner loves what she calls my "British sense of humour " ;-> ATB
kazoom: I agree CJohn - the latest rumours (TNI source suggest it's not THAT close to closing) present an 'OK' deal. Better than some of the previous rumours though : £20m of shares, previous rumour was £30 I think - still more than I would like at this share price level but better. £42m up front with £40 for the pension schemes - I think this then could be done from cashflow and existing debt facilities. I have no idea what the £5m subject to Irish regulators is all about. £60m in deferred payments by 2023 - would be covered by ongoing cashflow. Overall, for me this looks a better deal than previously mooted, so would hope to see a positive Share Price reaction - but tbh the TNI shareprice rarely seems to respond logically to fundamentals - imho.
cjohn: Hi Snicker, If Aviva thought disrupting the deal would benefit TNI financially - ie bad deal avoided - and that this would, hopefully, be reflected positively in the share price, then Aviva wouldn't be in a position to benefit, as they'd have sold out or sold many of their shares. It's more likely they've decided they've made a wrong call in buying TNI. The potential deal is maybe a symbol of that for them: ie TNI is resorting to doubtful acquisitions. I don't agree with their line of thinking. The acquistiion makes good sense. In general, I reckon margins will be sustainable for TNI for longer than might be expected, precisely because of the lack of new competitors in a declining sector. (We might expect other dominoes to fall as well: Johnston Press??) I remain on the sidelines here. Still a very complicated call, in my view. Best of luck to holders.
kazoom: Hi FIM, Personally I don't have a clue on a pre-results (late Feb?) target price, but I do expect/hope to see a price in excess of £1.00 at some point this year. I do though struggle to see what drives some of the share-price movements here. If you look at the 2 year chart in the header you'll see : > A fall from 170 2 years (in fact on the way down from above 200) to about 70 in summer 2016 > A bounce back to c. 110 in Aug / Sept -16 > A fall back to the high 70s around the end of 2016 > A rise again to 120+ in Feb?mar-17 and again in May/June. > A fairly long run down (with one rally) to the 60s late 2017. > A recovery into the 80s and a pullback in the last few weeks. During this time - virtually nothing game changing has happened with the business - they have boringly met or slightly exceeded market expectations. They did increase the phone hacking provision, but from memory that was a tiny number of pence per share and they announced the S&N acquisition negotiations - but that did not obviously impact the share price. I personally cannot rationalise the substantial fluctuations in the share price over the last two years, so I would be foolish to make a prediction a month and a half out. However - as I've started to examine whether TA might be of any assistance here, I would observe that Thursday and Friday might be quite interesting : > If the price is up (above 77p) in early trading on Thursday it would break (upwards) a short term down trend - c. 7 trading days from 85ish pence (intra-day) > It would also confirm a bounce off the bottom of a two month up-trend - the top end of which will rise above 90p in mid-Feb. In all good faith I cannot recommend those indicators to anyone. But personally, my take is that on the ultra-short term (measured in days and weeks), short term (measured in weeks out to two months) and short-medium term (maybe 6 months out) it all looks rosy - if the price does not crash tomorrow. I also personally like the longer term view (2 years plus) , but that very much depends on getting the right deal with S&N or being prepared to walk away (it is still possible that assets from Johnston Press may become available at bargain prices) So personally I remain pretty bullish here - but everyone really needs to form their own opinion.
twixy: Thanks for taking the time Wallbrook82 to share your research. It seems to me your rear view mirror is working well; however, totally ignores the benefits of what the S&N acquisition would bring by way of operating synergies and savings. As TNI are in exclusive talks with S&N it’s clear to me that detailed DD is being conducted to avoid over paying (again). In my opinion the share price is unlikely to tumble in the medium term, since the ‘tumble’ has already happened. IF the acquisition happens and the price and deal structure is as I hope, the share price should recover from its current lows. All that will enable TNI to execute the business objectives, which if you know them, they are arguably executing to plan. As for quoting Warren Buffett, I think we can all wheel one of those out to suit our argument....when others are fearful....
gfrae: kazoom,even when they were £2 plus they did not look particularly expensive they were then on a multiple of 7 times odd with rapidly decreasing debt. The market then was not so concerned by pension fund deficits perhaps. With a share price below £1 the share price is surely discounting almost the worst possible scenario. I suppose it depends on whether you consider the share price at any particular time on it s merits at that particular time or whether you look on it relative to the price it was at some previous time.
cjohn: DMGT's pension schemes are even more houmungus than TNI's with assets and liabilities both in excess of 2.5 bn sterling. So a 250m déficit is less significant at DMGT than at TNI ie it is a smaller percentage of assets; less than 10%. So they are in a considerably more comfortable position to TNI with regard to pension funding levels. And indeed only contribute 13m a year to their various pension schemes. (Possibly, at the next tri-annual valuation, that funding requirement will be reduced or eliminated.) Turnover and profitability at DMGT is also three times that of TNI; so in no way can the pension funds be considered a problem there - though, for reasons I've discussed ad nauseam with Kazoom, I still don't regard the DMGT schemes as a valuation plus. TNI's liabilities at present value are roughly 1.9bn with 1.5bn assets. (So the déficit is 25%+ of assets.) Assets rose over the previous year, but, that performance is unlikely to repeat this year. I think the lowly share price in part reflects investors' nervousness about whether future cash flows - in a declining business - can cover pension payments, residual hacking payments, restructuring and necessary acquisitions etc There were stories in the press a while ago about the Northern and Shell deal being delayed or falling through and what this would imply for the viability of the pension schemes. The share price decline followed on. My own feeling is that such worries are realistic but possibly marginally over-done. Treat the 400m déficit as debt. How long, on current free cash flow rates, would it take TNI to pay the déficit off entirely? Maybe 8 years at a pinch. But then free cash flow will almost certainly decline over those eight years, if new turnover and free cash flow aren't acquired from Northern and Shell (or other takeovers.) So the worries are understandable. Obviously, there has been a popular line on this BB that with rate rises, everything 'is gonna be alright". Rate rises may not happen as quickly as we'd like and asset values look pretty rich to me across US and UK stocks and may well fall back, increasing the deficit. Is there another solution? One possiblliity is with regard to TNI's property empire. Why not borrow 200m against this - the current rough value of the freeholds - and drop this into the pension fund. (Obviously, it would be better to do this when asset values - stocks and bonds - are not as high as now.) They could then ask for a waiving of yearly payments for x number of years. The extra free cash flow would be used to pay down this much cheaper new debt. The Company pays some 37m a year into the pension fund - more at the moment with the share buy back accompanying payments - It's a very expensive form of debt. Over 10% currently per annum. TNI would get a better mortgage rate than that. I remain in two minds about this share. It's a genuinely difficult valuation case, in my view, and I continue to pass to much simpler shares which my tiny brain can cope with. Good luck to holders; your optimism may well be rewarded. All the best CJohn
kazoom: Looking back at the resolutions from the last AGM the "standard" resolution on share purchases authorised them to buyback just shy of 28m shares (10%). In the buyback they just completed they purchased 10m (not sure if some of those even predated the resolution) so they could still buy back more. So they could institute another buyback without asking for permission (from shareholders). With the share price where it is now, I can think of no better value use of the free cash flow - even accepting CJohn's valid point that the balancing pension payments they would have to agree with the trustees would be at a poor time to invest in pensions. The surely have to do everything they can to prevent the share-price hitting 50p. Both CJohn and Paul Scott have indicated that they "might be interested" in the shares at that price and it hardly seems fair that such fickle former holders should be allowed back into the party. ;-) More seriously though, much as I mostly think that Directors fretting over short term share price movements is a bad thing, unless there IS some underlying undisclosed reason for the share-price weakness of over the last six months - I do think there is a strong case here to use cash to maximise shareholder value, perhaps even over and above pursuing the acquisition. The next trading statement is in about 3 weeks time and if that does in fact confirm the variation between performance and valuation then there will be a strong case to challenge the Board's priorities.
cityconindex: If this comes to pass will it affect the TNI share price? and by what degree? Cheers
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