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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trinity Mirror | TNI | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 85.70 | 00:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85.70 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 11/5/2018 11:21 by cityconindex A couple of weeks old but interesting. 86.70 to sell about 11.30 so that's about 90 with the dividend.hxxps://simplywall.s |
Posted at 10/5/2018 16:32 by podgyted As far as I can see TNI/RCH has gone up 1.9p from 85p today whilst going XD for a 3.55p dividend - that gives a 6%+ rise on the day.Comments welcome if I've got this wrong or if you think I'm right - name change has created a bit of choas. PT |
Posted at 17/4/2018 17:10 by harry_david Kazoom, good points but TNI overall in display digital ads is growing revenue nearly twice as fast as JPR. Partly due to audience growth which continues to outperform and also from what I hear is more efficient software and sales systems introduced in the last year.I have always kept abreast of the growth in viewer numbers and been disappointed in the lack of revenue numbers to go with it. Like you I feel the company now has the opportunity to change that. Social media could well be severely impacted by the current scandals, TNI is now the biggest digital news source in the UK, it is becoming better at monetising, and has a major location advantage with its regional network, and the Express sites will add extra depth. The regional point JPR mentioned but they do not have the spread or numbers. |
Posted at 17/4/2018 16:06 by kazoom Thanks for that link smicker - very pertinent news I think.Here's the link to JPR RNS itself. Notably they say they Ad revenues in Q1 "tracked in line with prior year" (the wording is not totally clear, but I think this refers only to their regionals) - note that before that they were seeing the same declining trends as TNI. The put this down to : 1. advertisers starting to increase spend in regional print (but surely that should mean revenues up?) 2. a somewhat stronger overall advertising market 3. our ability to precisely target audiences using 'big data' 4. improving sentiment towards quality print publishers in the wake of the Fake News and social media trust concerns. Now number 3 is potentially company specific (or just as likely self-congratulatory puff) but there is no reason to believe TNI wouldn't be doing the same. The other factors one would expect to impact across the industry. So hopefully in a couple of weeks time Simon Fox will stand up at the AGM and give a similarly positive message. Ad revenues flat rather than declining by c. 10% would make quite a difference to the numbers!! The JPR share price was unmoved, and nobody could even summon up the enthusiasm to comment on the ADVFN JPR board - but that is probably because the bigger question there is whether shareholders will be left with any equity once the bonds become due. |
Posted at 15/2/2018 11:15 by cityconindex This is an opinion from another site not mine and seems relevant DYORDate posted Tuesday 12:50 Subject at 80p great acquisiton and chart strength Opinion Strong BUY Message I've spent a lot of time analysing this TNI acquisition of N&S and concluded that it creates a lot of value. it is very hard to know how to value TNI due to the moving parts - declining industry, pension deficit (PD), debt, good dividend, share buy backs. i have 5 basic reasons to feel there might be share price strength from here. 1 - analysis of acquisition 2 - discounted cash flow 3 - Banks, Pension Trustees, Pension regulator 4 - interpretation of mgt 5 - technical analysis of chart 1. the basics of the deal are simple enough. TNI is buying N&S on the same multiple of its own valuation. N&S is arguably a poor quality business but it has a broader spread of revenues, including digital, and a much lower PD. The big figure is £20m of savings. It is logical there will be saving by merging 2 businesses and the value of these savings i estimate to be 35p a share! 2. i have modelled TNI and N7S using discounted CASH flows. Fairly simplistically. I assumed that sales would decline faster than the recent rates, and i assumed that costs would only decline at half the rate of sales. For 6 years TNI has managed to reduce costs as quickly as sales so i see both of these assumptions as conservative. This model shows that TNI will hit zero profitability in 2022! No-one doubts that TNI is in decline but i don't here much talk that they will not be profitable in 4 years time. So again this seems conservative assumptions. The sum total of the CASH flows in this scenario is £600m which covers the current equity valuation, debt and PD with room to spare - i.e. it implies the current equity value is undervalued by about 10p a share. Interestingly when one adds in N&S and the £20m cost saving - this extends the 'life of TNI' by 2 years! And adding the sum of the declining CASH flows is £900m which with the debt from acquisition, the payments to N&S Pension, and N&S pension implies the current equity value is undervalued by about 40p a share (on the increased equity base post acquisition) so this model may or may not be accurate but it doe again imply that the acquisition adds 30p to the value of TNI compared to pre acquisition. 3. Having just been repaid in full the £400m from a few years back the banks have finaced the majority of this deal and lent TNI more money - surely this implies they are comfortable with the future CASH flows of the business. The Pension trustees for all 6 pension schemes involved have given approval of the deal. I compare this to the delays at Coats and the post Carillon world. They have approved the deal and they will also allow TNI to increase its dividend and make share buy backs and a return of capital (hidden further down the documents) Even the Pension regulator have given the deal its approval and also must feel that TNi has sufficient surpklus CASH flows to be allowed to pay dividends, buy back shares and plan a return of capital. 4. Mgt were very confident at the analysts briefing. They have quoted £20m cost savings but have said that there are (quote) "very, very, comfortable" with that assumption. the iii article is the first to mention the assets being bought £300m of assets... now i don't know what exactly those are but there must be some surplus machines, buildings, land ... TNI is valued at 200m so 10m or 20m from asset disposlas is very significant to the share price. 5. TNI share price has been volatile. not surprise - a fixed cost business in decline with high debt and high pension responsibilities. It has also been in decline for the last 3 years post the 2009 bounce from the 20p lows. The situation today though is critically changed. TNI revenues have held up better than forecast 5 years ago TNI mgt has demonstrated their ability to cut costs Debt (pre acquisition) was down to only £10m (from £400m 6 years back!) Pension liabilities have been partly insured, future rises have been capped and the global equity sell off last week, the UK comments today are all expecting future interest rate rises faster than expected - rises mean lower pension deficits!! And TNI has shown it can be a consolidator in the industry. This enables it to buy businesses cheaply and take out costs. As the newspaper market gets tougher more and more smaller players will have to capitulate and sell to the highest (and only!) bidder TNI The positivity is all reflected in the chart. The price has now risen from 66p to 80p on big volume and a rise above 80p is a break out from the downtrend and confirms that TNI would actually be in an UPTREND from the lows of 2012 at 20p. The upside - 120p short term and 200p over a couple of years is possible is the cost cutting and asset disposals go well and interest rates rise. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL TNI is in my top5 |
Posted at 09/2/2018 13:41 by kazoom I think I have the answer to the pensions question - this from the Northern & Shell Media Group Dec-2016 AR. (I believe this encompasses all of the schemes concerned).So the schemes are about a third the size of TNI's and much better funded. Dec-16 Comparison is : £m TNI N&S Total Assets 1,662 748 2,409 Liabilities 2,128 771 2,898 Gross -466 -23 -489 % shortfall -22% 0% -17% Net of Tax -385 -20 -405 The £70m payment (out to 2027) into the N&S schemes should bring them healthily into surplus (it won't be possible to net that off against short in the TNI schemes). If the pension fund trustees have been smart, they will have locked TNI in to making those payments even if the assumptions improve and the schemes go into earlier surplus, although from a shareholders point of view it would nice to think that is not the case I somehow doubt it. I would think though that they will merge the fund management and admin pieces and that will be part of the assumed cost savings. |
Posted at 25/1/2018 17:45 by cjohn Hi Snicker,If Aviva thought disrupting the deal would benefit TNI financially - ie bad deal avoided - and that this would, hopefully, be reflected positively in the share price, then Aviva wouldn't be in a position to benefit, as they'd have sold out or sold many of their shares. It's more likely they've decided they've made a wrong call in buying TNI. The potential deal is maybe a symbol of that for them: ie TNI is resorting to doubtful acquisitions. I don't agree with their line of thinking. The acquistiion makes good sense. In general, I reckon margins will be sustainable for TNI for longer than might be expected, precisely because of the lack of new competitors in a declining sector. (We might expect other dominoes to fall as well: Johnston Press??) I remain on the sidelines here. Still a very complicated call, in my view. Best of luck to holders. |
Posted at 30/11/2017 11:35 by cjohn DMGT's pension schemes are even more houmungus than TNI's with assets and liabilities both in excess of 2.5 bn sterling. So a 250m déficit is less significant at DMGT than at TNI ie it is a smaller percentage of assets; less than 10%.So they are in a considerably more comfortable position to TNI with regard to pension funding levels. And indeed only contribute 13m a year to their various pension schemes. (Possibly, at the next tri-annual valuation, that funding requirement will be reduced or eliminated.) Turnover and profitability at DMGT is also three times that of TNI; so in no way can the pension funds be considered a problem there - though, for reasons I've discussed ad nauseam with Kazoom, I still don't regard the DMGT schemes as a valuation plus. TNI's liabilities at present value are roughly 1.9bn with 1.5bn assets. (So the déficit is 25%+ of assets.) Assets rose over the previous year, but, that performance is unlikely to repeat this year. I think the lowly share price in part reflects investors' nervousness about whether future cash flows - in a declining business - can cover pension payments, residual hacking payments, restructuring and necessary acquisitions etc There were stories in the press a while ago about the Northern and Shell deal being delayed or falling through and what this would imply for the viability of the pension schemes. The share price decline followed on. My own feeling is that such worries are realistic but possibly marginally over-done. Treat the 400m déficit as debt. How long, on current free cash flow rates, would it take TNI to pay the déficit off entirely? Maybe 8 years at a pinch. But then free cash flow will almost certainly decline over those eight years, if new turnover and free cash flow aren't acquired from Northern and Shell (or other takeovers.) So the worries are understandable. Obviously, there has been a popular line on this BB that with rate rises, everything 'is gonna be alright". Rate rises may not happen as quickly as we'd like and asset values look pretty rich to me across US and UK stocks and may well fall back, increasing the deficit. Is there another solution? One possiblliity is with regard to TNI's property empire. Why not borrow 200m against this - the current rough value of the freeholds - and drop this into the pension fund. (Obviously, it would be better to do this when asset values - stocks and bonds - are not as high as now.) They could then ask for a waiving of yearly payments for x number of years. The extra free cash flow would be used to pay down this much cheaper new debt. The Company pays some 37m a year into the pension fund - more at the moment with the share buy back accompanying payments - It's a very expensive form of debt. Over 10% currently per annum. TNI would get a better mortgage rate than that. I remain in two minds about this share. It's a genuinely difficult valuation case, in my view, and I continue to pass to much simpler shares which my tiny brain can cope with. Good luck to holders; your optimism may well be rewarded. All the best CJohn |
Posted at 09/11/2017 10:49 by gfrae xxx, I assume that you mean that TNI should not buy N+S at more than 2.5 times earnings because TNI shares are only valued at 2 times odd, I broadly agree.If Desmond is offered and accepts TNI paper plus cash raised by new debt it could be acceptable to all parties. He will understand that TNI paper is undervalued and have his own idea of the intrinsic value. So unless he knows something that everyone else does not, he is very unlikely to sell at anywhere near these levels.I do not see any necessity for a lock in. He would presumably be prepared to take the 6 or 7% yield while he waited for a more realistic price. He will still have an interest in the success of the business and will also profit from cost synergies,whilst simplifying his empire. Existing TNI shareholders and pensioners would also benefit from cost synergies from the combined group providing TNI does not overpay, uses as much debt as possible,and issues new shares only to Desmond who will have his own idea of their real value. |
Posted at 08/10/2017 22:39 by kazoom I don't have access to the Times story, but a couple of key points from the one in the Telegraph.They suggest the deal is £60m of cash £30m of new shares to Desmond (about 10% dilution which is disappointing but not disasterous. & £40m cash earn out over 3 years. They then go on to say "Mr Desmond plans to immediately pay the same sum into the Express Newspapers final salary pension scheme, which at the end of last year had a £19m funding shortfall. " When they say the "same sum" I presume they mean the £60 up front cash??? That seems awfully 'generous' given the relatively small size of the deficit and I can't quite make sense of it. Either 1- Would Desmond still underwrite the pension scheme (so TNI don't take on the exposure), so the payment might make sense if he think it's going to grow. or 2- If TNI take on the pension liability then they are acquiring a scheme with a £40m surplus and the trustees still have TNI (include Express etc) on the hook for any future shortfall. I can't see why their trustees would be concerned in that case. Nor can I really see what Desmond gets out of the deal really. So this seems to point to option 1, unless I've completely misread this? As to the point that : "Trinity Mirror trustees have questioned the long-term wisdom of taking on £100m in new debt to expand in declining print markets. " I would not have thought it would relatively easy for the TNI board to demonstrate that even on downside cases this makes the company MORE not LESS viable. All a bit of a mystery to me. It's a good thing IMHO that the TNI trustees will very much press for TNI not to overpay, but on the flipside they might press for more of the deal to be done in shares rather than cash. Probably be bad for the shareprice on Monday in any case. |
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