Pv Crystalox Solar Share Discussion Threads

[the stigologist] 21/3/2016 14:45

Just need to read the accounts. That's the balance sheet at the bottom of the cycle!

[zcaprd7] 21/3/2016 14:35

Looking like a breakout...

[someuwin] 21/3/2016 14:34

Had a little punt here.

Could get interesting.

[zcaprd7] 21/3/2016 14:32

If you click the motley fool link above, it links to the numbers...

[hugepants] 20/3/2016 20:41

...analysts are expecting just about break-even.

zcaprd7, Do you have the actual numbers for estimated profit/loss for this year? Hopefully at least close to breakeven with the termination of the major onerous contract and with wafer prices now exceeding cost of production. Japan has also been closed down.

[zcaprd7] 18/3/2016 12:57

Solar powerShares in PV Crystalox Solar (LSE: PVCS)perked up 4% in early trading to 9.7p, after full-year results revealed an increase in revenues from €53.3m to €64.5m. The company makes photovoltaic silicon wafers, used for capturing solar energy, and it's been suffering from weak pricing. But chief executive Iain Dorrity told us that the price of wafers "has shown some modest recovery during recent months while the price of polysilicon, the key raw material, has fallen to historic lows", and that wafers can now be sold at more than their cash cost of production.The company still widened its loss for the year and is extending a strategic review of its business in what are still difficult trading times. Crystalox had net cash of €12.7m on its books at the end of December, albeit down from €24.6m a year previously and possibly close to the limit if it suffers a further loss in 2016. But analysts are expecting just about break-even. It sounds like 2016 could be a pivotal year - and if demand for solar energy is on the rise, we could be at a good (if risky) buying point.

[zoolook] 17/3/2016 23:40

He's the only writer left worth reading on the Fool

[hugepants] 17/3/2016 23:03

3 Small Caps Set To Soar: Quarto Group Inc, PV Crystalox Solar PLC, Vernalis plc?

[the stigologist] 17/3/2016 13:26

PVCS have already won one of these cases where they won £90m and paid back massive dividend to shareholders.

[varies] 17/3/2016 11:55

Anyone wanting to see how perverse these judgments can be might look at Rurelec.
RUR seemed to have a cast-iron case against the Republic of Bolivia which appropriated their power station at Santa Cruz a few years ago. The award was pitifully low and the amount eventually received hardly covered their costs. RUR shares stood at 14p before the verdict and now stand at 1p !
Even so, PVCS shares may well prove a bargain at under 10p.

[the stigologist] 17/3/2016 11:54

I also think the market at large having abandoned coverage of the Company and Sector doesn't realise what a boon to the Industry the developments in Energy Storage are/could have. Will make solar far more cost-effective/viable and expand the market. e.g. RED in UK and Alevo / Tesla in US

[the stigologist] 17/3/2016 11:51

I think they could afford (if they win/settle) another special dividend similar to 2012/3 given limited need to invest in the business. They should be able to bootstrap any further investment by selling off inventory etc

It's almost like a zero risk one way bet right now at this price.

As this story gets out over the next few weeks expect the stock to be up 30-50% IMO

[salpara111] 17/3/2016 11:43

I was taking a conservative line myself when looking at the size of the award and had assumed about 20M Euro or about £15.5M which would have given you a doubling of the share price
On the basis of this announcement it is reasonable to assume that any claim would be more likely to be in the order of 40M euro or larger.
There can be little doubt that they will win given that they have prevailed in every other claim made, my main concern is that the customer is Chinese and as such will do their best to ignore the court ruling. Ultimately they should get their money but it is possible that they may end up waiting for it.

[profdoc] 17/3/2016 11:40

Market cap of £15m
Cash of Eur12.7m
Net current asset value north of eur30m
Losses from polysilicon contracts under control
Even without a payout on the arbitral tribunal this is looking interesting
With a payout it could be a multi-bagger

[kev0856153] 17/3/2016 10:54

"The judgment of the arbitral tribunal is expected later in the year and while the outcome is uncertain, the value of any award if our claim is upheld could be a multiple of the Group's market capitalisation."


Given the size of PVCS's claim, this may not even go to court in July. If PVCS's claim is £60M the other party may settle out of court for £30M

[kev0856153] 17/3/2016 10:52

good spot, several ways to win here. A trading turnaround can happen.

[zcaprd7] 17/3/2016 10:46

I need a more thorough trawl, difficult to see what the current trading is like. This caught my eye:"It should be noted that the Group's remaining plant and equipment, which was largely written down between 2011 and 2013, remains available for use and a significant increase in ingot production can be achieved without a significant increase in capital expenditure or an increase in the annual depreciation charge."

[kev0856153] 17/3/2016 09:09

WOW thanks. Ive bought in, its a win win win, either win very big, win big or win small.

The judgment of the arbitral tribunal is expected later in the year and while the outcome is uncertain, the value of any award if our claim is upheld could be a multiple of the Group's market capitalisation.

[papy02] 17/3/2016 08:55

Kev, search for "multiple"

[kev0856153] 17/3/2016 08:40

salpara111 where does I say that, I cannot find that anywhere.
I also searched for "several times current market cap" and it is not there.
Be more specific please, thanks

[steve73] 17/3/2016 08:38

Not sure if I understand correctly if there's two wafer contracts to go after... There's no indication of how large could be the liability under the remaining polysilicon supply contract, but with production profitability starting to cover some of the overheads it does seem the wrong time to fold now.

[salpara111] 17/3/2016 08:15

Well, they have now put an "order of magnitude" on the contract dispute being "several times current market cap".
My question is, do I sell up now and then look to rebuy my stake in the autumn or do I just keep my holding for the next 6 months.

[the stigologist] 17/3/2016 08:05

Note the big change in gross profitability between Interims and Prelims

[the stigologist] 17/3/2016 08:05

don't be stupid, now is the time the cycle is turning

'bottlenecks'

they will start to rake it in soon