Pv Crystalox Solar Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 19/3/2015 08:14

Net cash down from 39.2M euros to 24.6 which is a hell of a drop in a year.
Still loss making so the question is....if wafer pricing does not improve how long before the cash runs out?
I owned this in the past and made a decent return as a result of playing the cash return but I dont really see any long term future unless there is a dramatic increase in wafer prices over the next 12 months.

[hugepants] 16/3/2015 12:10

This outfit reliably release the final results between 20th and 30th March so Id expect them next week.

[petewy] 26/2/2015 16:14

The share below has risen 25% ($5) in three weeks. Tipped by Josh Brown on CNBC
Halftime.
PVCS share is on my watchlist, but I bought into graphene shares which have taken off.

SunEdison, 2 Inc. (NYSE:SUNE), is a world leader in solar photovoltaic and semiconductor technology, and is also a major provider of innovative solar energy solutions, with the goal of transforming people’s lives through innovation.

[zcaprd7] 25/2/2015 16:54

Slowly but surely. 10p was silly money though...

[bigdazzler] 20/2/2015 15:28

Long suffering pvcs holders could this be the start of an upturn?

Long term chart shows double bottom and the TA indicators have started to turn up backed up by increase in volume.

Could it be the start of more positive times?

[hugepants] 05/2/2015 16:25

Hawkwood over 4% now.

[zcaprd7] 03/2/2015 19:46

Bought from schroders?

[zcaprd7] 30/1/2015 21:50

From website. Hawkwood Deep Value FundRigorous deep value philosophy: buying $1 bills for 60 centsConcentrated fund of 10-15 stocks

[hugepants] 30/1/2015 18:18

This looks reasonably positive. Hawkwood Deep Value Master Fund Ltd going over 3%

[zcaprd7] 29/1/2015 20:48

10p not a bad place to start building a position. Technically anyway. Lots of cash still as well....

[salpara111] 22/1/2015 10:01

It has become increasingly clear that they have no future and as such they really should wind up the company and distribute the remaining cash but then again....when do management ever vote themselves out of well paid jobs.

[hugepants] 21/1/2015 12:50

Schroders have reduced slightly.


Regarding the E8.7M due to be received in customer settlement in September 2014 its not clear whether this is already accounted for ie. is it under receivables? I assumed its been accounted for but Ive been known to get it wrong from time to time.

[hugepants] 20/1/2015 23:41

Ive had a look at this but I don't think its cheap enough to buy yet. The current ongoing losses are significant (> 5M euros for 6 months) and at that rate it wont take long for the net working capital position to drop below the current market cap. I'll wait for the next results.

[profdoc] 19/1/2015 10:24

Thanks Papy02,
Your points are on the nail. These are concerns - but then, at bargain levels there are always concerns. We hope that concerns are in the price, but positive points have been ignored. We will not win on every one of these types of investment, but there will be enough to make a portfolio generate higher returns than if you buy shares with 'no concerns'. Knowledge of mean reversion tendency is a powerful psychological tool.

Last week I read through the BB over the previous two years. I was shocked, not so much at Stockologist's game playing (although that was bad enough), but that so many people did not realise what was going on - I guess they don't read enough, come fresh to the BB, and think what is being stated is honest objective analysis.
Glen

[papy02] 16/1/2015 18:45

profdoc, yes I agree. Being priced at distress levels gives a possible large upside. I like the fact that management are very large holders so are incented not to waste the cash chasing a dream. I made a very good return at the time of the last large cash return, being lucky enough to sell into Stockologist (and aliases) ramping and before the subsequent (probable?) dump.

Re your counter points:
(1) true - but the fossil fuel "headwind" may mean there's no urgency to get in at these levels (though a bargain in the hand is worth many bigger ones in the bush!)
(2) the political-tool to support solar is subsidies - will politicians be prepared to increase these to compete with the new fossil fuel prices?

I must admit the pump 'n dump has jaundiced me. This is definitely an interesting situation though. I'll read your series of articles with great interest.

[profdoc] 16/1/2015 15:54

EezyMunny - I agree on the risk-reward. We could easily lose. Some investors find that hard to take.

Hi Papy02, I agree that low oil prices will not help. I'll throw in a couple of counter arguments though, just for fun:
(1) When I buy I expect to hold for around 5 years (an absolute minimum of 3). And my buyer in 5 years or so will have an horizon beyond that. So we are talking about the long term prognosis for oil prices and the long term prognosis for renewables. I don't know, but I think there is a good chance of solar thriving (hopefully with profits) in 5-10 years. Is oil getting easier and cheaper to find?
(2) Solar demand is driven principally by political decisions, rather than its price relative to carbon-based electricity. Politicians are increasingly 'green'.
BTY I read that in many places in the world solar is cheaper than other forms of electricity (after taking account of grid set-up and maintenance) even without allowing for the externality of CO2 damage.
Glen

[papy02] 16/1/2015 14:34

I'd think the collapse in price of oil etc is an unwelcome headwind in the end-demand for solar, prolonging the supply/demand imbalance.

Any views on that, and whether it affects the outlook for PVCS?

[eezymunny] 16/1/2015 11:59

Will look forward to it profdoc.

As I said the outcome here is pretty hard to guess. A spectacular multi-bagger I guess is possible over time if they can operate on decent margins at some point in the future. Or a dribbling away of shareholder funds in a miserable market. I don't have a feeling for which is likelier but risk/reward looks pretty favourable here (to me!)

[profdoc] 16/1/2015 11:45

Hi EezyMunny,

I have just read your thread. Many words of wisdom - thank you. I think we have a lot of value principles in common.
Glen

[profdoc] 16/1/2015 11:40

Hi EezyMunny,

It'll be a bumpy, exhilarating ride. I'll post my version of the balance sheet later today, taking into account both the prepayments and the Onerous Contract Provisions. I hope it makes sense. If anyone has information on these please could you share it with us. Thanks
Glen

[eezymunny] 15/1/2015 14:56

Had a few of these for the EEZY2 portfolio today...



Trying to predict the outcome is clearly difficult but the discount to cash is just too tempting to resist.

Presumably product won't be dumped below cost for ever (tho it's starting to feel like it!). What happens then?

[profdoc] 15/1/2015 12:50

I have just started a series of posts setting out my analysis of PV Crystalox (and why I bought)in my Newsletter if anyone is interested (
Here is the beginning:
"How do you fancy a company which has about £34m of cash but is selling for £19m. Quite tempting?
But you would also need to look at the total liability position relative to the easily realisable assets to be reassured that the cash is not needed to pay off debts.
So, ignoring cash, what is the net current asset value, ‘NCAV-excluding-cash’. I get a figure of positive £12.4m. Thus all liabilities are more than covered by marketable assets, and then you get the cash on top.
But, this is not enough for a decision. You also need to know if the management are pursuing a crazy course and throwing away the cash.
Are they rapidly dissipating the cash surplus by persisting with loss-making operations or by making speculative capital investments, so that shareholders’ money will shortly be gone?
I spent a long time trying to answer these questions – hence the delay since my last post, sorry – but I think I have reached a reasoned conclusion.
Warning: risk of loss
Be aware that this investment....."
Glen

[steve73] 14/1/2015 08:27

What if the co were to use some of it's excess cash to buy it's shares and so prop up the share price .? This would allow those who want to sell out to do so without totally destroying the SP, yet allow those wanting to stay in for the possible recovery to benefit also.....

[salpara111] 13/1/2015 17:42

simple reality is that there is too much installed manufacturing capacity out there and none of it seems to be going off line meaning that wafer prices are stuck permanently below PVCS cost of production.
If the management were really working in the best interests of shareholders they would close the business and distribute cash as there is little hope of them becoming operationally profitable in the foreseeable future.