Pv Crystalox Solar Share Discussion Threads

[salpara111] 04/4/2016 14:42

The critical point is that the arbitration case will be heard in Europe so the outcome is pretty much a foregone conclusion as they have both achieved negotiated settlements and through the court in the past.
I made sure that I read all the previous company announcements before putting a rather large bet on this.
Clearly there is the danger that any company can ignore the outcome of the case and in doing so make it very expensive and time consuming to collect the settlement which is why it is important that the company is now effectively cash flow positive in terms of their manufacturing.
I would imagine that it is a Chinese company but we dont know that for sure.

[zcaprd7] 04/4/2016 13:01

It's the international court of Arbitration in frankfurt, no? I'm guessing the company is China...

[sweetg] 04/4/2016 12:41

that would be an interesting turn of events (150+) - like a rank outsider winning the national, but stranger things have happened. But the chances of the UK imposing meaningful tariffs on China is rather small, purely due to how much influence China has on the UK now - also the intrinsic disgust Osborne has for anything remotely "renewable".

[boros10] 04/4/2016 12:36

"the massive Chinese company may settle". Why do you say it is Chinese when the arbitration is to be held in Frankfurt?

[the stigologist] 04/4/2016 10:41

longer term if the solar wafer cycle really has turned and UK institutes tariffs on China Steel and Solar...

would not rule out 150p+

[the stigologist] 04/4/2016 10:40

Could easily gap up from 15p to 30p

[the stigologist] 04/4/2016 10:39

very little resistance now

[zcaprd7] 03/4/2016 02:37

Timing is everything. The massive Chinese solar company may settle in advance of the hearing? Not sure what happened last time, did it go all the way to court, or was via a negotiated settlement?

[the stigologist] 02/4/2016 16:18

They paid a very nice special dividend not long ago

[cyan] 02/4/2016 14:27

Once a upon a time PVCS paid a decent dividend. The damage to this sector and the steel sector by Chinese dumping has been serious.

Maybe some light at the end of the tunnel; fingers crossed.

[zcaprd7] 02/4/2016 13:12

Actual picture of some pv crystalox workers in a factory ...

[zcaprd7] 02/4/2016 13:05

Somewhat automated :http://www.stockcaller.com/whats-propelling-pv-crystalox-solar-plc-to-increase-so-much/81241/35p on technicals...

[zcaprd7] 01/4/2016 16:08

So worth about 20p odd without the potential legal award?

[paleje] 01/4/2016 15:05

Stig - ST may be an idiot sometimes but so are you, probably a lot more often.

The bulk of his article, as its been published now:-

Despite extensive negotiations PV Crystalox has been unable to reach a mutually acceptable agreement and was forced to file a request for arbitration in March 2015 with the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce. The hearing of the arbitral tribunal is scheduled to take place in Frankfurt in July 2016. Bearing this in mind, and with the caveat that a positive outcome is far from certain, chairman John Sleeman believes that “the value of any award could be a multiple of the company’s market capitalisation if our claim is upheld.” PV Crystalox is also seeking recovery of €400,000 costs it has incurred to instigate this action.

The other major point to note is that there is now a positive divergence between the spot price of wafers and the company’s cash cost of production, so much so that it now makes financial sense to turn inventories of polysilicon into wafers rather than trade surplus polysilicon in the secondary market as PV Crystalox has been doing in recent years. Polysilicon stocks were worth €20.3m (£15.9m) at the end of last year, or 90 per cent of the company’s total inventories. Interestingly, chief executive Iain Dorrity says that "a recent report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance highlights that while considerable surplus capacity exists in the polysilicon, cell and module sectors, the wafer sector could be a potential bottleneck with capacity closely matched to demand. Consequently the tight wafer supply situation and higher wafer prices are expected to persist in the short term".

The other consequence of a stabilising in wafer pricing, and subdued polysilicon spot prices, is that there is no need to make an onerous contract provision on future contracted polysilicon deliveries as these can be turned into wafers at a positive gross margin. As a result investors can now focus on what is a relatively clean balance sheet with PV Crystalox’s net funds of €12.7m, total inventories of €23.7m, trade receivables of €5.7m and deposits made on polysilicon feed worth €5.2m accounting for most of the company’s net asset value of €44.8m, or 21.9p a share. Cash and inventories are worth 17.5p a share at current exchange rates, or 75 per cent more than PV Crystalox’s share price.

The point being that if current market conditions persist, and the company is able to turn its polycilicon stocks into cash through wafer manufacturing, and at above the depressed level these assets are held in its balance sheet, then there could be significant upside to the shares. Add to that the possibility of PV Crystalox winning a major financial award later this year, and the risk still points to a decent recovery in the share price.

Trading on a bid-offer spread of 9.75p to 10p, I continue to rate PV Crystalox’s shares a speculative buy.

[salpara111] 01/4/2016 13:34

Well, I am much happier to hold now given my average price of 9.1p
I am rather unclear why it is showing such strength at present but clearly I am not unhappy!
My own feeling was that it would bumble along the 10p line until August/Sept time when they should get the result of their arbitration case.
I would be tempted to add more but my holding at present greatly exceeds my usual rules as a percentage of my portfolio.

[the stigologist] 31/3/2016 16:36

Golden Cross

[zcaprd7] 31/3/2016 16:13

Another tick up. Chart looks great...

[zcaprd7] 30/3/2016 15:16

Ditto. Tempted to add tbh

[salpara111] 30/3/2016 12:38

Well, given the relative strength over the last few weeks I am just going to hold my position.
It is pretty large but I suspect that if I sold out now I would struggle to buy the stake back at the same price/cheaper in July.

[zcaprd7] 24/3/2016 11:24

Can anyone post then IC article yet? It's shame the market is weak, was hoping we'd kick on from here...

[the stigologist] 23/3/2016 14:12

he is an idiot

[paleje] 23/3/2016 12:26

ST gave these a decent write up today, can't really print it till after the magazine's out but it's positive.

[the stigologist] 22/3/2016 16:37

MM's probably trying to collect shares in background

[zcaprd7] 22/3/2016 16:22

Hmm, bit of a battle around 10p, the spread is still all over the place...