Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[mazzstar] 15/12/2016 20:20

Yes Ferdi I agree with you and it is hugely concerning why we were told by SOH that we are in late stage development on 6 deals but now are informed by Adam Reynolds that 'multiple deals is too strong a word.' and that only 1 or 2 may happen. What is going on here? Neftanikoff, may I advise you to listen to the interview before you quickly disregard my earlier comment when I referred to the interview as a shocker. Something is not right here and we need clarity on this ASAP.

[elrico] 15/12/2016 20:17

Yup, I did mention the caveats. It is also why I said I expected a commercial deal prior to the IPO. SOH clearly states by year end or early next - it why I suspected a higher IPO IF and it is IF the right commercial deal(s) can be signed off. I agree my guesstimate is on the high to very optimistic side, but it is based on what SOH has said and a strategy I hope and trust SOH to broker prior to the IPO. ANother reason for my hypothesis is based on the fact I am confident a MN would have already done the DD and market test, clinical studies, etc and this is based on the timing of SOH announcement he intended to demerge Skinbiotix.

[f3rdinand] 15/12/2016 20:11

Personally I found today's interview rather odd... 1) The backtracking of the commercial update stating 6 deals with multinationals are at the final stages of negotiations! Why did SOH say that if it's not true? Reynolds made a point of saying 'not multiple deals' hopefully more than one or two more! The vagueness of the info on DSM I found odd too! will they be making the cholesterol products!?2) He seems bizarrely cautious regarding time scales to profitability. 12/18 months... blimey I was hoping mid 2017 the big profits would come through thanks to the cholesterol products being on the shelf!All in all he seemed to be downplaying SOH's recent RNS/ interviews! The first time I'm having a few doubts about OPTI tbh.

[riskybusiness1] 15/12/2016 20:06

That link explains that if the necessary steps are taken the value of the company could easily be £250m in the future. The science still needs to be developed. surely there's no chance it could be listed for any more than £15m. That would work out at around 1000% mark up from the price the ip was purchased for throughout the year. Good luck soh pitching that to institutional investors. You do the clinical studies (or hopefully with the partner) if successful the realisation of the opportunity creates and unlocks significant value.

[elrico] 15/12/2016 19:28

Risky - You may be using those figures for illustration purposes - I agree with you in terms of conservative value. If we go back to the UK Investor video (in the header) SOH quotes a value for Skinbiotix and IMO he does so deliberately because he has a plan to unlock this value. He also suggested a time frame....we let this slide for now. Again, IMO SOH would look extremely foolish if he floated Skinbiotix at say even £10million because he would effectively setting himself up for a fall and certain allegations and would undermine his status. So again IMO I would expect Skinbiotix to floated when it has signed off on lucrative commercial deal of its own with a global brand with hard numbers as this would;

1: Underpin the IPO
2: Give earnings visibility
3: Boost share value
4: Further boost OPTI value

I am not suggesting Skinbiotix will be or should be launched at anywhere near the quotes value, clearly Skinbiotix must be pitched at an attractive level to encourage II and PI to keep them and not flip them. With the right commercial deal(s) Skinbiotix could be pitched at £25-35 million.

I would advise investors revisit the video, scroll to 17:35ish - SOH discusses value of Skin IP obtained from UoM and stated he had a "large pharma" look at it, which came back with a value along with caveats for this future value. End of the year or "early next". What these caveat are, we don't know because they have never been published to my knowledge.

[riskybusiness1] 15/12/2016 18:01

40% is much more than I thought opti would retain...Opti paid 250k for 51% of the ip and looks like the convertible loan of 400k has been used to then increase this stake to 70+%.If opti listed skin at say £4m (which is very conservative considering potential markets) opti would immediately own 40% of that after dilution from the fund raise which would be £1.6ms worth in the new co. Taking these figures as an example, in the time since purchasing the ip throughout the year for a total 700k, opti would have immediately doubled its investment whilst gaining £2.4m from the ipo raise which will be used to substantially grow skinbiotix as its subsidiary. Another multi bag opportunity. If it is pulled off anything like this it will be a very very good bit of business.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 17:40

Mazzstar not meaning to be rude, but you really are showing to be quite ignorant to the workings of an IPO. In fact a lot of what you say shows very little understanding in many areas. Please do some research before posting.

[elrico] 15/12/2016 17:10

Spot on Parob. OPTI upped their stake via the £400k additional investment, which gave us an additional 23%, up from 52% on the original investment of £260k.

[whl2] 15/12/2016 17:09

40% of 100 is bigger than 73% of 50
When skinbiotix lists it will have a higher market value given the area it will operate in.

PS figures just for comparison

[elrico] 15/12/2016 17:07

Mazz - At the risk of being accused of bullying you...OPTI retaining 40% of Skinbiotix is a huge bonus. You fail to understand the mechanic of the demerger and what it means for OPTI, its shareholders and new shareholders in the new company. You may remember SOH stated Skinbiotix had been independently valued at c£250m, OPTI retain 40% of this potential value post demerger. In contrast, OPTI market value is c£50 million. Assuming Skinbiotix is a successful listing and the share price performs similarly to OPTI, we are in a win-win situation. Perhaps you will understand further when OPTI announce the Skinbiotix IPO price and then calculate your additional investment based on your OPTI holding and what skinbiotix is worth to OPTI as a company based on the 40% holding.

Don't forget, OPTI PI's have a share in Skinbiotix and OPTI and possibly warrants and or discounted offering. You need to sit down and digest this, or go and seek professional advice before you do something rath and regret it.

[mazzstar] 15/12/2016 16:59

Why did the company increase its stake in Skinbiotix only for it to be worth -35% post demerger? This does not make any sense to me and I'd appreciate if someone on here can explain this. Seems like a waste of money.

[parob] 15/12/2016 16:59

There must be a reason why they can hopefully name the Asian MN in Jan/Feb. Perhaps details of a product launch which will take place in H2?AR said he expected one or two more commercial deals following the above (so 2 or 3 out of 6). I took this to mean NEW DEALS (like the one on Tues) and assume the remainder of the 6 are deals being struck with existing partners. DSM were discussed in detail - when asked, AR said they were working on cholesterol. This would make sense as it's the novel oligosaccharides that can enhance the effect as per RNS on 29th Nov.AR also believed OPTI to now own 75% of skinbiotix - that's an increase of 23% on the original skinbiobix announcement. Would that be something to do with the £400K convertible loan? Retaining 40% post demerger is a great outcome IMO.

[mazzstar] 15/12/2016 16:53

You must be hard of hearing if you didn't find that interview a shocker. 1) N0 multiple deals forthcoming - more like 1 or 2 2) Opti owned 75% of skin but will be reduced to 40% after demerger so money spent on building stake in the company worthless 3) will never manufacture own products and will dependent on royalties for revenue. That to me is a shocker.

[neftanikoff] 15/12/2016 16:46

but you were quite strongly saying there will be no deal. There must be deal, have you heard the interview. Jam tomorrow is incorrect, the MN will be named in the 2 months and the contract signed. Again, why did you find that interview a shocker ?

[mazzstar] 15/12/2016 16:41

MN deal with Asian company still jam tomorrow

[neftanikoff] 15/12/2016 16:35

in what way was it a shocker ? have you not been saying that there will be no MN deal ?

[mazzstar] 15/12/2016 16:25

Blimey, Adam Reynolds says Opti will be left owning 40% of Skinbiotix post demerger. I must say that interview was a shocker.

[deeppockets] 15/12/2016 16:00

Perhaps people bought for the short term hoping for news before Xmas and now selling - a traders market!

[elrico] 15/12/2016 15:58

Adam Renolds gave a greater insight to the business model to anyone unfamiliar with OPTI. He spelled out the low cost model, which in time will have real visible earning, a low fixed cost base where the key strategy is royalty payments and license payments, which will in time become very transparent making future valuations very easy to project with each commercial deal.

Both SOH & AR intimated business for 2016 had been concluded - I took this as NO more commercial deals are expected to be signed off in 2016. AR did seem to put a damper of "multi commercial" deals being signed. This seemed to fly in the face of what SOH stated in the last RNs. It was difficult to gauge if AR was talking in terms of time frame or in terms of "multi commercial" contracts being signed.

I was intrigued to learn OPTI could retain 40% of Skinbiotix post demerger, this is 5% more than I expected. Very encouraging.

I am not going to concern myself with the share price movement over the holidays, except to say, January sales may be put on hold in favour of accumulating OPTI.

[neftanikoff] 15/12/2016 15:37

That's most likely the interview damage and just after you said it was holding up reasonably well. i say damage in the sense that it probably points to there being no more news this year.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 15:33

20k dumped at 63p. Has turned very weak after hitting resistance at 67p (50 ema)

[elrico] 15/12/2016 15:08

Bloody warrants holders flipping....line em up :-)

[neftanikoff] 15/12/2016 15:04

re 17398 and 17399, sort of conflicting views within a short space of time, by the same poster.

I've listened to the interview between AR and TW and can say there is nothing new there which, which as it is may well have counted for the drop with the impatient selling on no news before the new year.
Basically, he says OPTI is already revenue producing (not much )and this Asian MN should be named in Jan/Feb, the nomad has seen the contract and is happy with it. There will be more deals with MN following. All these will be royalty based with initial payments. The cost base is and will continue to be low since the science is all University spawn and there is no intention of manufacturing /producing, thereby there will be no need for costly plant/building/staff costs. Opti's science will be in the actual tablets/bars /shakes etc., So while OPTI is loss making atm, with these Royalty payments coming in every month and with a low fixed cost base, the profits presumably will start showing. Not a bad business model, i guess. And of course the demerger of the skin bit was mentioned, of which opti has about i think 70%, the new company will list on aim, i cant remember when he said.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 14:55

Some reasonable info someuwin, however market is not listening or interested.Peeps buying in on RNS now 5% down.

[someuwin] 15/12/2016 14:53

Some good info in that AR interview.