Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[rafboy] 16/12/2016 09:37

I have now listened to the TW interview with AR several times. I thought overall it was a good interview, he made clear that Opti are generating six figure revenue right now. He again confirmed we were generating revenue later on in the interview and said that we had a low cash burn. He talked about one or two deals being made next year and I feel that there could be more. He also confirmed that the demerger of skinbiotix would be towards the end of the first quarter of next year. He also said he expected us to be in profit within 12/18 months.

I thought overall it was a positive interview, AR didn't go over the top but was level headed and clearly indicated significant potential going forward. I am very happy to add at these levels.

[scotty1] 16/12/2016 09:20

Bet TW thought he'd better get this out quick after y'days interview

hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/views/25975/optibiotix-big-news-and-validation-from-india-buy

On 29 November Optibiotix (OPTI) stated: "OptiBiotix reports that it has reached late stage commercial discussions with six commercial partners across its technology and product platforms.". The knockers said "jam tomorrow won't happen". This week the first of the six deals was announced and it is massive. More will follow as Adam Reynolds made clear yesterday exclusively HERE. The news is:

OptiBiotix Health plc announces that it has entered into a joint development agreement (the "Agreement") with a multinational. The Agreement allows for the development of food and Over The Counter ("OTC") products containing OptiBiotix's SlimBiome® technology for the Asian market. The multinational is a major supplier of nutritional solutions to the food, beverage, nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries within Asia, and increasingly across global markets.

The aim of the Agreement is to develop weight management products containing SlimBiome® technology in a range of foods and OTC products which, if successful, will be launched into the Asian market in the second half of 2017. The Company requires its identity and commercial details to remain confidential and no further details can be disclosed at this time.

Ends.

The word on the street is that the partner is India super multinational Tata. India has a worse problem than lardbucket UK with diabetes and obesity is a real issue. This deal alone could generate enough cash to make Optibiotix shares look cheap and there are more deals like this that will be announced soon. And that will drive a massive re-rate.

The shares are 64p offer and a buy at up to 80p with a target to sell of 100p+ as the market starts to digest (pun, geddit?) how big this news is.

[scotty1] 16/12/2016 08:48

JJ as you say it isn't very good when there is a conflict of opinions between two of the board it means one of them is telling porkies imo,doesn't bode well for future interviews/mails from SOH or for the share price as i think the AR as done a lot of for the company with the interview,short term anyways.

[ironman22] 16/12/2016 08:34

TW doesn't know everything that is for sure and if you take every word he says as gospel then you need to have a rethink. He sometimes gets it wrong but if he does he says so.
TW tipped Opti at 9p and if you'd taken his advice and managed to sell somewhere near Opti's peak share price you would have made somewhere in the region of 900 - 1000% profit! There are numerous other share tips he has given that have made 50%+ gains and more, but as always you need to DYOR and make your own decisions.

[judijudi] 16/12/2016 07:53

I don't like this conflict of opinion between the 2 of them. Why are they not singing from the same hymn sheet?

[f3rdinand] 16/12/2016 06:03

Ironman TW has been stating that multi national deals will be announced imminently since Easter...he has zero credibility in my eyes!

[mazzstar] 16/12/2016 00:54

Elrico, has TW replied to your comment yet? "I have to say AR did SOH and OPTI no favours with his appearance of contradicting SOH on the multi MN commercial deals he expected to be signed off. This is in direct conflict with what SOH stated in his latest update where he stated OPTI are in "late stage" negotiations with 5 more MNs."

[mazzstar] 16/12/2016 00:39

"A man of his experience appears to be talking like Mazzstar" - I don't usually read your tedious spammarathons but did notice my name in there.

[mazzstar] 16/12/2016 00:33

"A man of his experience appears to be talking like Mazzstar" - I don't usually read your tedious spammarathons but I did notice my name in there.

[elrico] 15/12/2016 22:47

We need to stick to the facts, stop using "wrong". I do agree AR dropped the ball today by appearing to contradict OPTI last to RNs. AR confirmed OPTI now have two commercial agreements in place with DSM for our cholesterol IP and the unnamed "Asian MN". He agree OPTI let themselves down by not naming the MN, but think OPTI may be able to name them Jan/Feb. I find this flabbergasting....A man of his experience appears to be talking like Mazzstar - AR should be experienced enough to know why OPTI have NDA in place. TW did prod a little softly for my liking on the commercial negotiations anomaly. AR did say he expect 1 or 2 more in the New Year, which bring us to 3 of the 6. OK a 50% gap from the RNs to what AR states.

What nobody has picked up on is AR comments on the products, which he states are "exciting".

Oh, and the sell-off....Come one for crying-out-loud...My family and friends own almost as much as the sum total traded today.

Keep it sane.

I think people are taking "New Year" literally as 2017 and not as I think, New Year being the months of Jan/Feb. I am prety confident AR was not referring to the whole of 2017.

[mouse20] 15/12/2016 22:47

With Opti's running costs for the half year to May 16 being circa £800k, you might expect full yr costs to Nov 16 to be around £1.6m (last yr £1.4m). If costs are to remain at a similar level going forward then any upfront payments on the deals will not be that significant if Opti are not likely to be profitable for 12 to 18 to months.

If we then have multi-nationals that are spending several months assessing the demand in global markets for Opti's products that will still not see the annual costs of £1.6m covered for 12-18 months(even after the upfront payments) then either the initial demand is not expected to be that great or the royalty payments are very tiny per unit sold in a global market place.

In saying that, in years to come the model sounds like it will work very well as sales increase yr on yr. However it looks like it is going to take a year longer than I had hoped for. But I do believe this is going to be a great business and ultimately very profitable. In time anyway.

It might explain why we have only had institutions reducing their holdings and no new ones investing. But that will hopefully change in 2017 with Skinbiotix, the continuing interest in gut micobiota and of course revenue generating contracts.

[ironman22] 15/12/2016 22:28

f3. AR & TW are both shareholders why would they want to purposefully say anything detrimental? They tell it like it is which is much preferable than them talking BS and talking the company up and then getting even more stick when their prophecies don't come true?
TW supplies share tips of companies he invests in. He has paying subscribers who use these tips. He wouldn't get many subscribers if he always gave BS information now would he?

[parob] 15/12/2016 21:39

The drop this afternoon has given investors a chance to buy at a lower price to when the Asian MN RNS was released. I for one, will be topping up tomorrow.

[f3rdinand] 15/12/2016 21:36

It makes me wonder if it was deliberate...TW and AR are shady characters IMO

[john henry] 15/12/2016 21:30

Reynolds has pretty much undone any positivity from the recent RNS.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 21:28

The Adam Reynolds interview today, certainly caused the selling today and the 4% drop in the share price IMHO the company needs to clear up the conflicting messages emerging from the company.

[john henry] 15/12/2016 21:22

I would expect an update quite soon on the progress of the demerger.

[riskybusiness1] 15/12/2016 21:07

Opti just announced a brilliant rns regarding realistic touching distance of significant future earnings and products with a corporate in Asia. Yet 2 days on seems to have been by some swept under the rug questioning the reliability of the other deals. It's actually quite funny how hard are people trying to keep opti down

[parob] 15/12/2016 20:56

Guys you need to chill out a bit. If you remember in the Feb investor presentation, SOH said he expected to reach profitability early 2018 so nothing has changed on that front. F3, there is no way Opti could get away with saying they're at late stage commercial discussions with 6 partners (with regulators) if that wasn't the case. As mentioned in my previous post, my interpretation is that some of those discussions are with current partners, for e.g DSM - AR mentioned DSM straight after being asked the question. So the next news on that partnership should be revenue-bearing (seems to be on cholesterol). And others will be joint development agreements I.e on skin etc.When referring to OPTI revenue streams in 2017/18, AR said multiple might be a strong word, but there will be MORE THAN ONE OR TWO and they will grow. I for one would be very happy with three or more. This is just the start and AR went on to say the microbiome area is slightly misunderstood - during the next year/18 months there will be many major conglomerates that will be trying to get on the bandwagon.

[mazzstar] 15/12/2016 20:20

Yes Ferdi I agree with you and it is hugely concerning why we were told by SOH that we are in late stage development on 6 deals but now are informed by Adam Reynolds that 'multiple deals is too strong a word.' and that only 1 or 2 may happen. What is going on here? Neftanikoff, may I advise you to listen to the interview before you quickly disregard my earlier comment when I referred to the interview as a shocker. Something is not right here and we need clarity on this ASAP.

[elrico] 15/12/2016 20:17

Yup, I did mention the caveats. It is also why I said I expected a commercial deal prior to the IPO. SOH clearly states by year end or early next - it why I suspected a higher IPO IF and it is IF the right commercial deal(s) can be signed off. I agree my guesstimate is on the high to very optimistic side, but it is based on what SOH has said and a strategy I hope and trust SOH to broker prior to the IPO. ANother reason for my hypothesis is based on the fact I am confident a MN would have already done the DD and market test, clinical studies, etc and this is based on the timing of SOH announcement he intended to demerge Skinbiotix.

[f3rdinand] 15/12/2016 20:11

Personally I found today's interview rather odd... 1) The backtracking of the commercial update stating 6 deals with multinationals are at the final stages of negotiations! Why did SOH say that if it's not true? Reynolds made a point of saying 'not multiple deals' hopefully more than one or two more! The vagueness of the info on DSM I found odd too! will they be making the cholesterol products!?2) He seems bizarrely cautious regarding time scales to profitability. 12/18 months... blimey I was hoping mid 2017 the big profits would come through thanks to the cholesterol products being on the shelf!All in all he seemed to be downplaying SOH's recent RNS/ interviews! The first time I'm having a few doubts about OPTI tbh.

[riskybusiness1] 15/12/2016 20:06

That link explains that if the necessary steps are taken the value of the company could easily be £250m in the future. The science still needs to be developed. surely there's no chance it could be listed for any more than £15m. That would work out at around 1000% mark up from the price the ip was purchased for throughout the year. Good luck soh pitching that to institutional investors. You do the clinical studies (or hopefully with the partner) if successful the realisation of the opportunity creates and unlocks significant value.

[elrico] 15/12/2016 19:28

Risky - You may be using those figures for illustration purposes - I agree with you in terms of conservative value. If we go back to the UK Investor video (in the header) SOH quotes a value for Skinbiotix and IMO he does so deliberately because he has a plan to unlock this value. He also suggested a time frame....we let this slide for now. Again, IMO SOH would look extremely foolish if he floated Skinbiotix at say even £10million because he would effectively setting himself up for a fall and certain allegations and would undermine his status. So again IMO I would expect Skinbiotix to floated when it has signed off on lucrative commercial deal of its own with a global brand with hard numbers as this would;

1: Underpin the IPO
2: Give earnings visibility
3: Boost share value
4: Further boost OPTI value

I am not suggesting Skinbiotix will be or should be launched at anywhere near the quotes value, clearly Skinbiotix must be pitched at an attractive level to encourage II and PI to keep them and not flip them. With the right commercial deal(s) Skinbiotix could be pitched at £25-35 million.

I would advise investors revisit the video, scroll to 17:35ish - SOH discusses value of Skin IP obtained from UoM and stated he had a "large pharma" look at it, which came back with a value along with caveats for this future value. End of the year or "early next". What these caveat are, we don't know because they have never been published to my knowledge.

[riskybusiness1] 15/12/2016 18:01

40% is much more than I thought opti would retain...Opti paid 250k for 51% of the ip and looks like the convertible loan of 400k has been used to then increase this stake to 70+%.If opti listed skin at say £4m (which is very conservative considering potential markets) opti would immediately own 40% of that after dilution from the fund raise which would be £1.6ms worth in the new co. Taking these figures as an example, in the time since purchasing the ip throughout the year for a total 700k, opti would have immediately doubled its investment whilst gaining £2.4m from the ipo raise which will be used to substantially grow skinbiotix as its subsidiary. Another multi bag opportunity. If it is pulled off anything like this it will be a very very good bit of business.