Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[sarahbudd] 25/11/2016 12:29

Annoying... can't add this BB as a favourite..

[napoleon 14th] 25/11/2016 08:42

Hi telbap. Good to see you in FXPO as well. I'm as overweight here as I am around my waist! Caution, therefor.
Sibir was a 22p to £8 to 40p to £5.50 story from '03 to '08, & I fully endorse
bellbotom's "Its only real money when you sell. Until that point it is just numbers on a screen - mustn't forget that."

Still, so far so good & I'm staying overweight, as in "nothing ventured, nothing gained", but holders here had better stay wide awake & ready to sell too early rather than too late IMO.

Nice thread anyway, devoid of BB psychos there are too many of elsewhere.......

[gilesgraves] 25/11/2016 08:17

Great day yesterday. I have been looking back at the charts from previous years and it looks like most years the stock goes down after thanksgiving for a couple of days. Following that pattern we would see a little dip from now to wednesday and then back up. However, I think Iron price has done well again over night (another 2% up), so maybe we will in fact just keep going up and use 130 as resistance. Who knows. Watching closely.

[jimmygee2] 24/11/2016 17:57

Thanks Giles! Close above 130 v significant I think. What's funny is that the 'experts' were predicting a savage fall in iron ore prices from October.The opposite happened!

[mark_jm] 24/11/2016 16:46

over the course of the past 10 years the share price of this stock has had a very close correlation with the commodity price or iron ore, and nothing seems to have changed to me. OK so they have some financing challenges ahead in the next few years , but with a stable or climbing commodity price, I dont see that as too much of a risk. We have always had some dubious characters on the board too, so apart from heightened geo political risks, is there any thing significantly different now, to the last time this share passed through to £1-2 zone, and proceeded on up to £4?

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 14:34

Jimmygee2. Amazing. Thats the way to do it.

[telbap] 24/11/2016 14:25

Hi Napoleon.....I bought here in 60s, sold 116 off the last spike. Thought they were gonna take a kicking after all that micky mouse rubbish with the "placing" with more to come next year......what's your worry except the insane rocket from 30p to 130p?

[jimmygee2] 24/11/2016 14:23

Breakout? I've held since 30p - buying on every dip has worked wonders.

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 13:59

Just don't sell up! Stick with it. Got to push through 130 then we can have a nice strong move up. Iron ore price doing well again today.

[bellbottom] 24/11/2016 13:44

Continues to be a good week for some mining stocks and a good sustained period.
FXPO still rising, if at a slower pace. My ATYM shares have risen 75% in the last three weeks as well. But mustn't rest on my laurels. Its only real money when you sell. Until that point it is just numbers on a screen - mustn't forget that.

[pbutterworth1] 24/11/2016 12:53

Giles - you are right. The key driver is the iron ore price. Its going like a train and has oh so far to go. This, like copper etc etc, was bound to happen sooner or later and it is now highly likely (>90%?) to continue for several months. Whilst this continues, so will the share price growth. I made a lot of money on FXPO and sold out at 101 on Nov 8th after the share sale. Later, on 10th Nov and 15th Nov I bought a lesser but still substantial blocks back in. Basically, I wish I had never sold at all !! Lol DYOR Buffet says - have the courage of you convictions.

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 12:21

So here we are back at 130. The level we achieved before the share sale Fri 28th Oct. Since then is it fair to say that iron ore has gone up by about 30%? Why on earth people would sell at this point is beyond me. Its a definite hold or even buy as far as I can see.

[napoleon 14th] 24/11/2016 11:07

Caution is not missplaced here. Anyone else in Sibir Energy some seven years back?
Same could happen here!

So far, so good, but I'm keeping a very close watch.
I hold FXPO, BTW.

[shaf200] 24/11/2016 10:22

30% up in a month... so easy!

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 10:15

Dr Z....come on he's learnt it :)

[ulftherock] 24/11/2016 10:05

Gilesgrave, Bellbottom,

Heh--first, good point, Giles. I have to thank you guys for calming me down on this, as I did well. Bellbottom, also a good point. I was in process of putting together a bullet-point history based on media to try to put this all in perspective (before the agenda comment set me off), but it seems that we have a few factors going here (I'll make this quick, as I have to get back on track, following days wasted at the doc).

* We have political issues/the bank issues that nobody seems to know enough about. Last time they slaughtered this stock. Maybe something has now made it resistant, but nobody has commented on this... if there is anyone who has true insight in ukraine here (I don't need just a negative blast, but what this could mean for why the company did not react so badly in October, I'd love to hear it).
* We have a bond issue that could really work for us or could just be too much (or even have underlying reasons that we do not fully understand). Again more clarity here.
* We have China... Don't have time to write all of that. Someone made a good point--surge, collapse, surge, collapse, etc.
* We have world production/pellet price issues--standard games(Brazil, Sarma, etc.)

On one hand, I can get high on reports that would indicate the ride should continue. On the other, this is a lot to watch at once. I think we are all used to watching the standard external factors/price factors, but the internal politics and lack of knowledge re the investigation (and what it would mean if Z goes down)--that is indeed throwing me a bit.

And when it's slow, you have time to worry, heh heh.

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 09:48

I am not worried about this. Its very easy to lose money by trying to sell and buy back these shares as they are rising. Personally I think the best way is to set a stop loss and gradually raise it. The stop loss has to be quite loose. The volatility of this share is such that it knocks out tight stop losses quite easily. I think you've got to have about a 5% bandwith.

But The problem I see is that whenever we have a quiet day or a down day on this stock, everyone starts getting very negative. We would all make a lot more money if we just stuck with it and let it make its way to 200.

[bellbottom] 24/11/2016 09:00

I am still feeling apprehensive about the wider Ukraine political and financial situation and the potential impact on FXPO.
There is a lot of pressure building on the Ukraine government to meet their anti-curruption committments before more money is released by the IMF. Maybe I'm being overyly paranoid or cautious in believing that its going to be a continuing climb from hereon in, with a few minor dips along the way. Having been in and out of this share for a good number of years and seen it down to around 15p and up into the £££;£'s, I'm aware of the potential for both steep growth and slippery decline.
I know they've got a top dog product and when the debts start to clear a bit more, the garden should be rosy.

[ulftherock] 23/11/2016 18:11

Gilesgraves,

Ha--actually, bad luck made me a success. Had a small accident some time back, then had to go to the doc. Then had to go back to the doc and now I've enjoyed the ride (despite my nerves).

When I checked in my eyes popped... glad I stayed in!

Bellbottom, very good question. Saw that and reviewed predictions for 2017... and realized that the ratio factor would be good to know. I know someone with a Bloomberg account. Not sure if he will look that up for me, but... I'm asking, heh heh.

[bellbottom] 23/11/2016 13:41

Not sure when the ratio between coking coal and iron ore was last this low? Haven't got access to any data - probably need a Bloomberg account to have this luxury.
Do you not think it likely that the ratio will be somewhat re-balanced by a drop in coking coal price more than any further increase in iron ore pricing, to fill that gap in the ratio factor?
It's not an area I am fully conversant with but if it goes the other way we could have greater gains to come?

[daveas] 23/11/2016 11:43

According to MacquarieThe pellet premium tends to react quickly to moves in the price of coking coal.In 2005 coke rose by 116% pellet premiums by 111%.In 2008 coke up by 206% pellets by 126%.so far this year coke up by 150% pellet by 50%.Coke is now up by 300% so what could the premium be now

[gilesgraves] 23/11/2016 09:34

Ulftherock - hope the last couple of days have restored your faith in this stock! It would be good to see this go straight above 130 today.

[leeson31] 22/11/2016 17:02

Next leg up now. Imo