Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[mr.oz] 20/10/2016 19:54

Past infidelity may also limit the valuation

[panic investor] 20/10/2016 19:47

Add into the equation a decent market correction / crash once Hillary is crowned !

[mark_jm] 20/10/2016 19:43

I wonder what discount to valuation we should apply for the political risk?
Ive always said to my self that what ever happens, they still have all that iron in the ground, and the share price has a very strong correlation to iron ore price, so long as iron ore price stays some where close to where it is now 120/140p would seem a decent share price .
Im in at an ave price of 61p and happy to run for the long term waiting a few years for 250p then ill cash out.

[telbap] 20/10/2016 18:04

Granto....cheers for you insight....one for you for future......sou. more legs in thus one and the other is boo. Lots more legs in this one. I have out in my sell at 140, see what happens between now and then.

[mreasygoing] 20/10/2016 17:10

130-140 ish still looks good before a pullback. Friday has come at the wrong time me thinks though.

[granto2] 20/10/2016 16:38

Charts can be highly misleading, the oldest trick in the book is to put a wall of support below a share price, and pull it !!!

[granto2] 20/10/2016 16:36

where Next? I have no immediate winner. I like to fully understand a business, I like to understand it better than any institutional investor. In Ferrexpo, I think that I did. At investor briefings I knew by the questions the bankers were asking that I knew more than them, a bit like the kid in school who knows he is ahead of the kid asking questions because the questions are behind the game. I don't have a next stop. I will I did. But, I may stick about here and await opportunities. For example, If iron ore crashes badly this winter, there could be panic selling here, and there is the buying chance. .. The last week has been unreal here, I have now take 60% off the table, as I think we are close to the top.

[pbutterworth1] 20/10/2016 16:31

granto - agreed - but look at the chart -

[pbutterworth1] 20/10/2016 16:28

bought a lot at 38p. Sold all, in 6 accounts, at 73p. Bought at 78p and more at over, in many tranches to 110p. Making a lot of money, thanks to FXPO I don't need to 'work' for two years. No intention of selling ANY for quite a while.

ps well done mr e

[granto2] 20/10/2016 16:27

Pbutterworth1. P/E is a applied in my valuation, But you must factor in debt.

[che7win] 20/10/2016 16:25

I'm a late comer - in at 85p

[mreasygoing] 20/10/2016 16:22

Wow, I'm sitting on my first 5 bagger :-)

[pbutterworth1] 20/10/2016 16:19

anyone selling out of this now is making a biiiig mistake

[pbutterworth1] 20/10/2016 16:16

granto, I think its is very unlikely there is only 22% upside here - unless you are inpatient and looking at the next three months. Buffet style, its highly liklely this will be over £2 before March, which is 71% up from here and still a p/e under 10.

Happy days

[gilesgraves] 20/10/2016 15:58

What you have done here is legendary, Granto. We've all made a fortune. Where are you headed next? I will definitely follow!

[granto2] 20/10/2016 15:34

No RNS until March annual report, bar the Production report in Jan. Would anyone care to value the company?
Here is my take on it.
1, I assign a high enterprise value because of its, capital barrier to entry capex, stable industry compared to tech etc, mixed customers, market leader in costs, quality product. so I give this a multiple of 10.
2, I expect the company will make $180 to $240m next year but I'll play safe and call it $200m. So this gives a value of $2,000,000,000. Lets remove the debt and interest from that $900m and this leaves an actual value of $1,100,000,000.
3, the current Market Cap is $900,000,000. so we have about 22% upside left here. I hear the company is pushing on next year with new mining areas but hey I'm not adding that, that's cream, and we don't count cream until it rises.
That's it guys. having bought in at 38p I have taken a lot off the table and will slice more to average out regardless of share price direction.
I would like others to give there valuations here please.

[muffster] 20/10/2016 15:02

Very strong level 2 data again today. Wonder when an RNS will be announced

[telbap] 20/10/2016 14:41

Ahhhh, panic you are here too.

[panic investor] 20/10/2016 13:55

Ssshhhhhhh, quiet boards are good boards.

Before you say it Telbap - Im here to ! LOL

Nothing much to say though so tend to just watch

[bigbigdave] 20/10/2016 12:59

Mighty quiet here considering the action. Must be a foregone conclusion that FXPO rises every day :o)

[gilesgraves] 19/10/2016 14:22

Now that we have pushed well past 100p theres no resistance between us and 140 but I think we will steam through that. This rocket is about to really take off. Confidence in China is building and Q4 looks good for iron ore so far.

[telbap] 19/10/2016 12:10

Just topped up, got lucky and caught the downside, 110.5p.....been a good share to hold so far......fundamentals look good, so does the chart.....happy days ,-)

[muffster] 19/10/2016 09:59

Hey 3rd, hope you're good (read about your knee on other thread).

[muffster] 19/10/2016 09:32

How interesting. Im the same too, just keep adding more funds on the way up too. Averaging up.