Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 14:41

I telephoned Ferrexpo just now. They nothing about this.

[mustau] 16/11/2016 14:28

Contact pr of company to verify

[bellbottom] 16/11/2016 14:26

Hi Giles,

I've had a look at threads on this story. Ukraine News Agency reports it and also UKropNews24. The story, whether true or not is out there on official news websites.
Have you got any links to websites that counter the story? It's one thing saying the stories are false but this needs to be backed up with some other official news sites with opposing views. I am a long term holder and don't want to believe any story that reduces the worth of my investment, but I can't find anything out there that states the story is false. You could be right but where's the data to back it up. Chat threads on their own are just that, "chat threads." Their very nature, rumour, pump and dump.

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 13:53

Im now reading reports on other chat threads that this is a false story! So many retail investors get stopped out with things like this. Costs them a fortune. The best thing surely is to think longer term with volatile shares like this. Thats the only way to make proper returns. Next stop 125

[bellbottom] 16/11/2016 13:20

I agree, generally and long term bullish. But it is Mr.Zhevago's own bank we're talking here and certainly not a made up story. It may have no bearing on the share price or it may cause a temporary 'blip.' However, if the owner of Ferrexpo and the bank in question gets implicated, then I would expect a serious drop in price and a further opportunity to top up. Remember what happened when the bank was shut down?
Can't ignore stuff like this. You can choose to stay in for the long term or play the market and hope you choose the correct entry points and exit points along the way.

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 13:00

To me these articles have absolutely no significance to Ferrexpo. Sometimes I wonder whether articles like this are invented in order to lower the share price and create buying opportunities for those in the know. Ferrexpo is producing top grade iron ore pellets today, same as it did yesterday and same as it did at 10am this morning when the share price was 6% higher.

With a 185, sorry they mean 205 (!) target, Deutsche Bank are extremely positive about this company and the iron ore market. So I am going with that and am buying £50k of FXPO shares today. It would be great to hear from Granto as to his current thoughts on this stock but I BULLISH.

[old fool2] 16/11/2016 12:10

Don't know what to make of these articles/news

[fruitninja84] 16/11/2016 10:23

Just the usual 6-7% intraday price action here in the first two hours of trade, terrifying for those of us who are happy for just 10pc a year on a share and cut at 5% loss! Mad bad and crazy volatile to say the least.

[muffster] 16/11/2016 08:11

Thanks bent. Just been watching level 2 data and buying support very strong

[bent banana] 16/11/2016 06:40

On 14th Nov. Deutsche reiterates Buy rating and lifts target price from 130 to 185

[shaf200] 15/11/2016 09:55

15% up in 2 weeks... who said money doesn't grow in trees..

[napoleon 14th] 14/11/2016 10:52

telbap, hi.
Yes, that placing was clumsy, but we'll get over that depending mainly on market prices for the product which is still in an uptrend.
They're not allowed to sell the rest for another ten weeks or so, & maybe that will be better organised if they want out. Can't see many IIs turning their noses up....

I just stayed in after more than doubling my stake at under 100p two weeks ago.
Forget the "Trump effect" - that's media gibber. China is the motor here IMO.

Best...

[telbap] 13/11/2016 10:40

Hi Napoleon.......glad I held on here, think it will resurgence past recent highs. Looking for a new 130/ 140 high once we push thru resistance at 125. Volumes looking good, lots of new blood now the stupid "placing" is out the way, I still don't fully understand why they decided to engineer it in that way, was always going to cause the price to drop. Next week will see us back in the 120's I belive, then it depends how much new blood wants in at those prices for the next to move.

[che7win] 11/11/2016 11:44

Looks like it's wanting to rise.

[napoleon 14th] 11/11/2016 11:27

granto - interfax is interesting but, tho' only a month on, seems quite outdated!
Nobody thought Trump would win, even less that his election chat would move prices that much, without counting China's new-found appetite.

[granto2] 11/11/2016 10:51

This is one of the best articles I have read on Ferrexpo. It is not perfect, but a decent effort. There is a small but important misprint and that relates to estimating the 3rd quarter FRee cash flow. But other than that S&P has an excellent understanding of the company. they correctly estimates EBITDA at between $340m and $360m for 2016, ( this needs tone adjusted since things have improved since this was penned), but their EBITDA estimate is much higher than other analysts. I don't agree about Ferrexpo struggling to pay its debt in 2017, but this report does give a good overview. For those who are new here it is worth a read. I think EBITDA will be between $380m and $390m for 2016. If I am correct the share price should correct itself upwards north of 125p. DYOR GLA.
hxxp://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/377136.html

[granto2] 11/11/2016 09:32

That's $50m EBIDTA.

[granto2] 11/11/2016 09:31

Currently Iron ore is hovering around $75t and premiums are over $30 so yes Ferrexpo is 'CURRENTLY" making $50m a month, long may it continue.

[muffster] 11/11/2016 07:13

News is that the Trump win and his desire to increase infrastructure spend is helping to lift ore price. I follow fortescue metals group Australia, which is an ore exporter and their Shares are rising strongly.

[muffster] 11/11/2016 07:02

Thanks both for the details

[daveas] 11/11/2016 06:50

Even higher again ,!!!
In morning trade, Dalian iron ore futures jumped another 6 per cent to $US90.20 a tonne (614.50 yuan/tonne), while coking coal futures were up 2 per cent to $81.30/tonne - a rise of 10 per cent in just the past five days.

Iron ore futures are now trading at a 16 per cent premium to the spot Chinese Steel Index price which hit $US74.20 yesterday.

Spot prices have jumped more than 35 per cent in the past month alone.

[napoleon 14th] 11/11/2016 01:18

Copied from a.n.other site. Not my I.P.!
"Iron ore futures in China surged by their 9-percent limit on Thursday to hit a 30-month peak, extending a recent rally backed by strong coking coal markets as well as steel prices.
Higher fees imposed by the Dalian Commodity Exchange on trading of coking coal and coke futures have diverted some funds into iron ore, traders and analysts said, helping iron ore outperform the rest of the ferrous market.
Spot iron ore topped $70 a tonne on Wednesday for the first time since January 2015, reflecting firm demand for high-grade cargoes as Chinese mills boost efficiency amid costlier coal, and could track further gains in futures.
The most-traded January iron ore on the Dalian exchange was up 5.9 percent at 571.50 yuan ($84) a tonne by midday. It hit its upside limit of 588 yuan earlier, its loftiest since April 2014.
While there is “no big rush” among Chinese steel mills to buy iron ore cargoes, “supply of high grade is limited, so it’s natural to see prices rise”, said an iron ore trader in Shanghai.
“Clients are now only looking for high grade and are showing no interest for low grade,” he said."

[jjhbev] 10/11/2016 13:19

Apparently iron ore fixed at over $74 today. That price is for 62% fines.

For the first half of the year - when Fxpo generated net after tax profit of $78m and EBITDA of $160m - the average price they received for their 65% pellets was $76 inclusive of the pellet premium.

The futures market looks strong into 2017. IMO net profits for this six months could be double that of the first half.

[wigancasino] 10/11/2016 09:01

Telbap called it right. Best price for over two years, could this be a bigger change around than Brexit and Trump put together?

[fruitninja84] 10/11/2016 08:32

Agree with post above. Iron ore touching $70 Ferrexpo will be getting a good pellet premium, best in 2 years ?Before (if) another tranche is unloaded into the market we will of had an update by the company which in imo will please. This should create enough demand in the market to absorb a big seller quite quickly.. Im holding as i got a cracking price below a quid. And the fact that the £1 level is holding so well bodes well for me.