Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[mreasygoing] 27/10/2016 18:19

I would have thought there's strong institutional demand.

[scottishfield] 27/10/2016 18:09

No not a dilution

[bamboo2] 27/10/2016 18:00

So is this a dilution? Doesn't seem so. I guess a lot depends on the appetite for the sale.

[wakeland] 27/10/2016 17:13

My best performer in quite a while, only wish I'd taken a decent stake when mreasygoing was trumpeting this. He called it spot on, credit where it is due.

[bo90] 27/10/2016 17:08

Fkin typical!Just bought having watched for 6 weeks ??

[sherbs] 27/10/2016 16:53

I think that after hours rns might just be enough to prompt a sell off. Billionaire Czech investor Zdenek Bakala selling 70m shares

[mreasygoing] 27/10/2016 16:24

Yep, there's plenty of investors waiting for a pullback but if it doesn't sell off tomorrow they'll be scrambling to buy.

[bamboo2] 27/10/2016 16:15

I have tomorrow as a triangle apex based potential turn day. Not going to sell though. There is a 60% chance of the turn, but think it may well be short lived, if it happens at all. Last Friday was a down day, but the friday before that looked ok on the chart I have here, unless I mis-counted the days.
Fact is there's a bigger target in my mind now, than was evident last week.

[pbutterworth1] 27/10/2016 15:46

tebap, I tend to agree, there is a pattern on Friday. I will hold - good luck!

[che7win] 27/10/2016 15:35

200p a realistic target here?

[telbap] 27/10/2016 15:30

Kissed 130 :-).....This has rebound written all over it. Profit taking Friday tomorrow, might sell tonight jump back on lower.

[mustau] 27/10/2016 13:32

This deserved the kitchen sink at 12.5p, if only!!

[pbutterworth1] 27/10/2016 11:28

Not top slicing here. Good to 160p+ short term on chart. Run your winners. Just sold BLT and moved into KAZ. Good luck gg

[gilesgraves] 27/10/2016 11:17

I have sold up here. What a run. Will keep an eye on this one though and look for entry points on any major dips.

[mreasygoing] 27/10/2016 09:33

Can't wait my AIM miners to play catch up. They usually lag the main market. Reduced my holding here. Nice 5 bagger. Will just let my remaining holding run. Should see £3+ in the future.

[bamboo2] 27/10/2016 09:11

bbd, Will look later, as have to work this morning. :-)

edit, posted chart on kaz thread 20:39 27/10/2016

[bigbigdave] 27/10/2016 09:01

bb2, thanks for targets :o) Sorry for O/T but could you apply your charting skills to KAZ?

[bamboo2] 27/10/2016 08:58

Added earlier, but didn't expect this reaction!

[telbap] 27/10/2016 08:16

Bamboo....hope that target is flexible...;-)

[bamboo2] 27/10/2016 00:00

My original target for this Inverse H&S chart pattern was approx 134, the concurrent flag, 130. However the eod close above 120 qualifies this pattern, using Bulkowsi's definition, as a High and Tight flag with a confirmed target of 160

[telbap] 26/10/2016 16:30

Cool, we made it, looking set to break through previous highs and intra day highs. Granto....I see you caution line, I was loking for 140 before I reviewed, but 125/130 nice profit, might top slice and tuck the holding away for a rainy day. Where are you based?

[jjhbev] 26/10/2016 15:27

Hi Granto

Thanks for another detailed and well researched post. I fully agree with all your thoughts as regards the timelines for Samarco – and I think Vale are taking actions that indicate that they are not expecting anything happening there soon. This is the wording in their Q3 production report:-

hxxp://www.vale.com/EN/investors/information-market/Press-Releases/ReleaseDocuments/2016%203Q%20Production%20Report_i.pdf

“Pellets Production overview
Vale’s pellet production, totaled 12.072Mt in 3Q16, 20.1% higher than in 2Q16 and in line with 3Q15, mainly as a result of the resumption of the Fábrica plant and higher feed availability for the Vargem Grande and Tubarão plants. Vale is currently studying alternatives to overcome the challenges of increasing its pellet feed availability and to develop options to increase its pellet production, in order to offset a supply shortage resulting from the stoppage of Samarco.”

I have read your posts over on LSE. The only thought I would throw in is whether you are being conservative in your number of $25 for the pellet premiums. I acknowledge that you preface this number by stating that this is the level they have usually been – but for the various market reasons we have referred to in previous posts I think that we are in a new normal where, for at least potentially the next few years, we could be looking at premiums of $35 or even higher. The Fxpo CEO referred to premium levels in the $30s – and that was back at the start of August since when numbers seem to have moved up significantly.

Equally however – at a time when we seem to be rocketing towards your current fair value price figure of 126p – it is worth readers remembering that premiums in the first quarter of this year were barley making it to $20. So, although there is significant upside (IMO very significant upside potential) from even today’s share price level we all need to be mindful that there are risks – including those outside of the “usual” Fxpo specific risks (e.g. How will global currency and share markets react if Renzi loses his referendum and there is an election in Italy? Possibly no reaction or possibly a trigger for an international market correction on the back of more European turmoil??).

Conversely, the apparent rerating of expectations for iron ore going forward could add more to Fxpo than just an increase in earnings based on its current production. I would urge people to listen to the mid-year results presentation – and in particular the Q&A from approx 47 minutes in.

hxxp://edge.media-server.com/m/p/vpofze3k

You will hear the CEO specifically reference the brownfield production expansion potential from 12m tons pa to 14m or 16m with a cost per million of increase of $60m-$80m. IMO there must be a very high potential that Fxpo will put the first of these plans into action if the iron ore market stays anywhere near its current level over the next month or two. However, (1) these are just my thoughts and (2) this is anything but risk free! So, always DYOR.

Best wishes

[granto2] 26/10/2016 15:10

for what its worth I don't value these more than 125p, but that said, they could go much higher, it's just my cautious valuations. We don't know what Dec and Jan Feb will bring, and Samarco shows how dangerous mining can be. So be careful there, but yes this is a good soiled firm in MHO. DYOR..best of luck

[telbap] 26/10/2016 14:49

Wow granto....some serious homework there!!....many thanks, just increased my position here.