Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[jjhbev] 16/11/2016 17:33

Hi Again Giles

a) I assume - perhaps wrongly - that you are responding to my post before yours. In which case I will just mention that I am not Granto. But it's very kind of you to mix me up with him!! ;-)

b)I don't know whether the "news" is false (the PGO action appears to be for real) but the interpretation/spin/misunderstanding (deliberate or otherwise) looks a bit contrived to me. People are entitled to disagree with me on that but I am surprised at how this "news" has been taken up whereas the "news" that Fxpo production for Oct is approx 950k tons seems to have vanished onto the ether!!!

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 17:11

This is why you are such a legend Granto. Investors should follow you closely. You always give factual, unbiased and honest answers, that are incredibly well informed.

So, in a nutshell it seems that the internet has been intentionally flooded with false innuendo, rumour, and negative News about FXPO all designed to give retail investors the fear and trigger stop losses. What a complete con!

Looking forward to those end of year results.

[jjhbev] 16/11/2016 16:17

Hi Giles

Even for Fxpo this is an unusual day on the bulletin boards. IMO it’s almost as though there has been an active effort to create something here

Looking at various articles posted elsewhere today there is

1 An Interfax article about the PGO soliciting for the arrest of the ex chairman of Finance & Credit. This person is named in the article as Volodimir Khylvniuk
2 A UKropnews article on the same story refers to the ex Chairman and his deputy being one Demchenko Aleksandr Ivanovich. This person is quoted as being “a former assistant of people’s Deputy of Ukraine Konstantin Zhevago”
3 A posting from something called True-News which, when I open it up, shows a posting date of Tuesday, August 9th, 2016 in the upper left of the article
4 There appear to be people indicating that Zhevago is the subject of the PGO action. I fail to see where this is stated. As far as I can see this is not the case.
5 A posting of an Interfax article dated 17th October referencing the S&P rating. This is old news and has been discussed here and elsewhere previously with mostly negative comments re S&P and its rating assessment from early in the summer. If one reads the article one can see that the S&P comments are way out of date and refer to risks associated to iron ore price downside risks, e.g a price for the rest of 2016 of $50/tonne and reduction to $45 per ton for 2017, Samarco restarting etc. etc.
To be fair to S&P, they did state that “if existing iron ore prices and pellet premiums persist, or if the hryvnia experiences sharp depreciation, the company should be able to fully cover its upcoming maturities from operating cash flows," Iron ore at the time was $55 per ton and looked like trending down. As we all know iron ore has in fact moved from the upper $50s into the $60s and recently into the $70s. At the same time premiums appear to have increased. Cash generation (EBITDA) is probably on track for as much as $250m as compared with the $160m in the first half. As I write, we have less than 7 weeks till the end of the year. Why therefore are these S&P comments from early summer relevant & why publish/re-publish now?

Certainly – and IMO sadly – since these postings have started doing the rounds there appears to have been a marked impact on the share price with what looks like a lot of PI selling.

Fxpo is by no means risk free and everyone is perfectly free to make their own investment choices – but personally I feel that the “news” in the postings referred to above is no basis for investing or selling here. Each to their own!

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 15:22

Thank you Granto, I really appreciate your comments and have followed them for a long time. Only just started posting myself though. My main question to you would be to ask what you think of todays volatility, this news article that is floating about and whether that has any impact on your assessment of the company. Also I was wondering what you thought of Deutsche Bank's targets. I don't understand why the analysts are so far apart with their assessments. Plus there is the CCC rating just been given. I wondered what you think of all this and whether you have been through similar as the share rose from 30p. Is this the normal daily news bombardment and volatility that we should expect as shareholders of Ferrexpo. I bought back around 90p, sold a few times and and really happy with the results so far. Im now back in today and looking for a long term hold.

[granto2] 16/11/2016 15:03

In terms of the SP, I valued it here at £1.25p a few years ago, I retain that price estimate.

[granto2] 16/11/2016 14:55

Hi Giles.
I'm not sure what you would like me to comment on other than the general satiate of affairs. I believe that Ferrexpo is performing better than expected based on the all the available information out there. The pellet market is buoyant and I expect Ferrexpo to announce a very strong end of year accounts.

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 14:43

I telephoned Ferrexpo just now. They did not know about this news story.

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 14:41

I telephoned Ferrexpo just now. They nothing about this.

[mustau] 16/11/2016 14:28

Contact pr of company to verify

[bellbottom] 16/11/2016 14:26

Hi Giles,

I've had a look at threads on this story. Ukraine News Agency reports it and also UKropNews24. The story, whether true or not is out there on official news websites.
Have you got any links to websites that counter the story? It's one thing saying the stories are false but this needs to be backed up with some other official news sites with opposing views. I am a long term holder and don't want to believe any story that reduces the worth of my investment, but I can't find anything out there that states the story is false. You could be right but where's the data to back it up. Chat threads on their own are just that, "chat threads." Their very nature, rumour, pump and dump.

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 13:53

Im now reading reports on other chat threads that this is a false story! So many retail investors get stopped out with things like this. Costs them a fortune. The best thing surely is to think longer term with volatile shares like this. Thats the only way to make proper returns. Next stop 125

[bellbottom] 16/11/2016 13:20

I agree, generally and long term bullish. But it is Mr.Zhevago's own bank we're talking here and certainly not a made up story. It may have no bearing on the share price or it may cause a temporary 'blip.' However, if the owner of Ferrexpo and the bank in question gets implicated, then I would expect a serious drop in price and a further opportunity to top up. Remember what happened when the bank was shut down?
Can't ignore stuff like this. You can choose to stay in for the long term or play the market and hope you choose the correct entry points and exit points along the way.

[gilesgraves] 16/11/2016 13:00

To me these articles have absolutely no significance to Ferrexpo. Sometimes I wonder whether articles like this are invented in order to lower the share price and create buying opportunities for those in the know. Ferrexpo is producing top grade iron ore pellets today, same as it did yesterday and same as it did at 10am this morning when the share price was 6% higher.

With a 185, sorry they mean 205 (!) target, Deutsche Bank are extremely positive about this company and the iron ore market. So I am going with that and am buying £50k of FXPO shares today. It would be great to hear from Granto as to his current thoughts on this stock but I BULLISH.

[old fool2] 16/11/2016 12:10

Don't know what to make of these articles/news

[fruitninja84] 16/11/2016 10:23

Just the usual 6-7% intraday price action here in the first two hours of trade, terrifying for those of us who are happy for just 10pc a year on a share and cut at 5% loss! Mad bad and crazy volatile to say the least.

[muffster] 16/11/2016 08:11

Thanks bent. Just been watching level 2 data and buying support very strong

[bent banana] 16/11/2016 06:40

On 14th Nov. Deutsche reiterates Buy rating and lifts target price from 130 to 185

[shaf200] 15/11/2016 09:55

15% up in 2 weeks... who said money doesn't grow in trees..

[napoleon 14th] 14/11/2016 10:52

telbap, hi.
Yes, that placing was clumsy, but we'll get over that depending mainly on market prices for the product which is still in an uptrend.
They're not allowed to sell the rest for another ten weeks or so, & maybe that will be better organised if they want out. Can't see many IIs turning their noses up....

I just stayed in after more than doubling my stake at under 100p two weeks ago.
Forget the "Trump effect" - that's media gibber. China is the motor here IMO.

Best...

[telbap] 13/11/2016 10:40

Hi Napoleon.......glad I held on here, think it will resurgence past recent highs. Looking for a new 130/ 140 high once we push thru resistance at 125. Volumes looking good, lots of new blood now the stupid "placing" is out the way, I still don't fully understand why they decided to engineer it in that way, was always going to cause the price to drop. Next week will see us back in the 120's I belive, then it depends how much new blood wants in at those prices for the next to move.

[che7win] 11/11/2016 11:44

Looks like it's wanting to rise.

[napoleon 14th] 11/11/2016 11:27

granto - interfax is interesting but, tho' only a month on, seems quite outdated!
Nobody thought Trump would win, even less that his election chat would move prices that much, without counting China's new-found appetite.

[granto2] 11/11/2016 10:51

This is one of the best articles I have read on Ferrexpo. It is not perfect, but a decent effort. There is a small but important misprint and that relates to estimating the 3rd quarter FRee cash flow. But other than that S&P has an excellent understanding of the company. they correctly estimates EBITDA at between $340m and $360m for 2016, ( this needs tone adjusted since things have improved since this was penned), but their EBITDA estimate is much higher than other analysts. I don't agree about Ferrexpo struggling to pay its debt in 2017, but this report does give a good overview. For those who are new here it is worth a read. I think EBITDA will be between $380m and $390m for 2016. If I am correct the share price should correct itself upwards north of 125p. DYOR GLA.
hxxp://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/377136.html

[granto2] 11/11/2016 09:32

That's $50m EBIDTA.