Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 13:59

Just don't sell up! Stick with it. Got to push through 130 then we can have a nice strong move up. Iron ore price doing well again today.

[bellbottom] 24/11/2016 13:44

Continues to be a good week for some mining stocks and a good sustained period.
FXPO still rising, if at a slower pace. My ATYM shares have risen 75% in the last three weeks as well. But mustn't rest on my laurels. Its only real money when you sell. Until that point it is just numbers on a screen - mustn't forget that.

[pbutterworth1] 24/11/2016 12:53

Giles - you are right. The key driver is the iron ore price. Its going like a train and has oh so far to go. This, like copper etc etc, was bound to happen sooner or later and it is now highly likely (>90%?) to continue for several months. Whilst this continues, so will the share price growth. I made a lot of money on FXPO and sold out at 101 on Nov 8th after the share sale. Later, on 10th Nov and 15th Nov I bought a lesser but still substantial blocks back in. Basically, I wish I had never sold at all !! Lol DYOR Buffet says - have the courage of you convictions.

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 12:21

So here we are back at 130. The level we achieved before the share sale Fri 28th Oct. Since then is it fair to say that iron ore has gone up by about 30%? Why on earth people would sell at this point is beyond me. Its a definite hold or even buy as far as I can see.

[napoleon 14th] 24/11/2016 11:07

Caution is not missplaced here. Anyone else in Sibir Energy some seven years back?
Same could happen here!

So far, so good, but I'm keeping a very close watch.
I hold FXPO, BTW.

[shaf200] 24/11/2016 10:22

30% up in a month... so easy!

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 10:15

Dr Z....come on he's learnt it :)

[ulftherock] 24/11/2016 10:05

Gilesgrave, Bellbottom,

Heh--first, good point, Giles. I have to thank you guys for calming me down on this, as I did well. Bellbottom, also a good point. I was in process of putting together a bullet-point history based on media to try to put this all in perspective (before the agenda comment set me off), but it seems that we have a few factors going here (I'll make this quick, as I have to get back on track, following days wasted at the doc).

* We have political issues/the bank issues that nobody seems to know enough about. Last time they slaughtered this stock. Maybe something has now made it resistant, but nobody has commented on this... if there is anyone who has true insight in ukraine here (I don't need just a negative blast, but what this could mean for why the company did not react so badly in October, I'd love to hear it).
* We have a bond issue that could really work for us or could just be too much (or even have underlying reasons that we do not fully understand). Again more clarity here.
* We have China... Don't have time to write all of that. Someone made a good point--surge, collapse, surge, collapse, etc.
* We have world production/pellet price issues--standard games(Brazil, Sarma, etc.)

On one hand, I can get high on reports that would indicate the ride should continue. On the other, this is a lot to watch at once. I think we are all used to watching the standard external factors/price factors, but the internal politics and lack of knowledge re the investigation (and what it would mean if Z goes down)--that is indeed throwing me a bit.

And when it's slow, you have time to worry, heh heh.

[gilesgraves] 24/11/2016 09:48

I am not worried about this. Its very easy to lose money by trying to sell and buy back these shares as they are rising. Personally I think the best way is to set a stop loss and gradually raise it. The stop loss has to be quite loose. The volatility of this share is such that it knocks out tight stop losses quite easily. I think you've got to have about a 5% bandwith.

But The problem I see is that whenever we have a quiet day or a down day on this stock, everyone starts getting very negative. We would all make a lot more money if we just stuck with it and let it make its way to 200.

[bellbottom] 24/11/2016 09:00

I am still feeling apprehensive about the wider Ukraine political and financial situation and the potential impact on FXPO.
There is a lot of pressure building on the Ukraine government to meet their anti-curruption committments before more money is released by the IMF. Maybe I'm being overyly paranoid or cautious in believing that its going to be a continuing climb from hereon in, with a few minor dips along the way. Having been in and out of this share for a good number of years and seen it down to around 15p and up into the £££;£'s, I'm aware of the potential for both steep growth and slippery decline.
I know they've got a top dog product and when the debts start to clear a bit more, the garden should be rosy.

[ulftherock] 23/11/2016 18:11

Gilesgraves,

Ha--actually, bad luck made me a success. Had a small accident some time back, then had to go to the doc. Then had to go back to the doc and now I've enjoyed the ride (despite my nerves).

When I checked in my eyes popped... glad I stayed in!

Bellbottom, very good question. Saw that and reviewed predictions for 2017... and realized that the ratio factor would be good to know. I know someone with a Bloomberg account. Not sure if he will look that up for me, but... I'm asking, heh heh.

[bellbottom] 23/11/2016 13:41

Not sure when the ratio between coking coal and iron ore was last this low? Haven't got access to any data - probably need a Bloomberg account to have this luxury.
Do you not think it likely that the ratio will be somewhat re-balanced by a drop in coking coal price more than any further increase in iron ore pricing, to fill that gap in the ratio factor?
It's not an area I am fully conversant with but if it goes the other way we could have greater gains to come?

[daveas] 23/11/2016 11:43

According to MacquarieThe pellet premium tends to react quickly to moves in the price of coking coal.In 2005 coke rose by 116% pellet premiums by 111%.In 2008 coke up by 206% pellets by 126%.so far this year coke up by 150% pellet by 50%.Coke is now up by 300% so what could the premium be now

[gilesgraves] 23/11/2016 09:34

Ulftherock - hope the last couple of days have restored your faith in this stock! It would be good to see this go straight above 130 today.

[leeson31] 22/11/2016 17:02

Next leg up now. Imo

[jjhbev] 22/11/2016 16:34

For those who have a bloomberg screen/subscription - which as mentioned earlier I don't - there is a screen ISIX65PU which is, and I quote from a snapshot of said screen, the "iron ore spot price index 65% import pellet in USD."

Today that number stands at 109.35 having been 110+ last week.

From the screen I have seen it would appear that the sequence since mid year has been

Start July 85+ rising to 90 early Aug
Flat at 90 till mid Sep then spike to 100
then flat until rising late Oct to 105
Nov has been 105+ rising by the day until late last week

Anyone got a screen of their own ;-)

[gilesgraves] 22/11/2016 15:16

OK. Thanks Granto!

[granto2] 22/11/2016 15:06

That looks like a commodity exchange and would be live. however, this is not real live ore trading as that takes place where the steel mills and the miners meet, ports etc. but yes Iron is up today so it is correct. the exchange can be wrong though. the real prices are given by Platts Et-Al.

[gilesgraves] 22/11/2016 14:59

Thank you. This IG.com price then - do we know what that is? It is showing up 8% today and the number looks to be 571p. Ive noticed it moves early UK morning, then again just before UK markets open, then finally between 2pm and 4pm in the UK afternoon.

[granto2] 22/11/2016 14:52

where to find iron ore spot prices.
Ok, good question. Iron is not traded, well not like you know it. Most of the deals are privately done, and way the spot piece is calculated is not always fully accurate.
There are several organizations that gather information and estimate the price. and they sell this information, costs a few $1,000 US dollars a year.
here are the main people that provide the prices.

Metal Bulletin, Platts. The Steel Index (TSI) ,IRESS, CME Futures

BUT, these are not live, there is no 'real' live price as such.

The big media players pay for the service and quote the prices the next day so you don't need to shell out $1000s. BUT, you will always be a day behind.

[granto2] 22/11/2016 14:33

It's up 6% in China, and that's the exchange limit for a single day. such rises and dips are becoming common. the media calling every rise a 'surge' and every fall a 'crash'.
Ferrexpo's focus is on long term bonds rather than daily rises, nice as they are. speaking of, if I were a banker I'd be waiting until next April before doing a deal with Ferrexpo, it would allow me see the end of year, and also get a flavor for the 2017 iron ore price. BUT, Ferro has an enterprise value of $2billion, so $750m is really not that huge a debt, the issue is its short maturity dates. In China most miners have 60% debt to enterprise value, so its not a bad bond holder investment coupon