|I'd be interested to see the effect of currency movements on the revenue figures. It must have been quite significant given the evolving shape of the business.|
|Number of shares (year end) up to 285 million
Turnover per share down to 2.2 pence per share (2.8p/sh end of 2015)
Profit per share is more negative at end of 2015 (-1.59p/sh) than at end of 2014 (-1.40p/sh)
(end-of-2016 profit/loss figures will be available in the 2016 results, probably in March or April)|
|I have now collected all the RNS announcements from April 2015 to the present and I can get everything to join up with no gaps. Assuming that the most recent issue of shares was as in the announcement of July the 1st 2016, the number of shares at the end of the year 2016 was 284,935,182.
I'm going to look at some per-share quantities.|
|Anyone know the current number of shares in issue?
I've got the latest announcement (from Deltex's web site) which says that on July the 1st, 2016, they issued 10,465,116 shares resulting in 284,935,182 shares.
Anyone know any different?
There are still gaps in the record, most recently between July the 28th, 2015 (result: 219,584,986 shares) and February the 23rd, 2016 (result: 258,153,394). Between those two there should be the issue of 39 million shares, but the announcement on the 2nd of Feb covers only 10.6 million. Anyone know where the other 30 million odd shares were announced?|
|Hooray! It's a buying opportunity!
This is almost repetitive enough that I could write the lyrics of Status Quo's next hit.|
|Sp back to square one!|
|BigT20, yes, now I look again I see that there was 0.2m of barter sales.|
|Just as I side point, I find interesting that 65 out of 152 Trusts (if i remember correctly) had bed blocker / A&E issues.
So 87 trusts were capable of handling the situation.|
Debt - they already have convertibles and an invoice discount facility.
As for cashflow - it would be good if they could stabilise the situation with the NHS. The first three months of the calender year (Jan - Mar) is when the NHS feels the financial squeeze most as they approach the end of their financial year.|
|Not convinced they will need to raise anymore cash as uk sales stable and US sales probanly 3.5m this year. Perhaps 500k in worst case. Why dont they borrow money as interest rates are low.|
|Arf Dysg18 Jan '17 - 19:19 - 8555 of 8556 0 0
I seem to have that 2015's turnover was GBP 6.4m, so 6.3m for 2016 is a decrease, not an increase.
---> Are you comparing apples with apples? Have you excluded the barter sales?
In FY 2015 I thought there was £0.2m of barter sales?|
|Cash outflow has traditionally been bigger in the first half of financial years.
So I look forward to seeing what happens, cashwise during the first half of 2017.
As for the UK invoice facility, I suspect it will only go up if UK sales start to pickup.
I wouldnt be surprised if we have a fundraising in the first half of 2017 (probably after the AGM.) but at least we are moving in the right direction and hopefully we can leave the NHS behind at some point.|
|I seem to have that 2015's turnover was GBP 6.4m, so 6.3m for 2016 is a decrease, not an increase.|
|Deltex’s overseas sales are booming but its previously dominant NHS revenues are dropping off
|Healthy buying and selling, awaiting RNS of someone's increased holdings, just hope the MMs don't start creative accounting again.|
|Its difficult to know whether the probe design was an issue.
I suspect implementation in different environments was the problem, given that the probe doesn't seem to have been an issue anywhere except the UK.
I also suspect that implementation in the NHS is still dependent on the personal preference of the clinician and that does not necessarily change even with a shed load of evidence that it will be a positive improvement overall.
I find that incredible, given that whenever I have been given a piece of equipment during employment that did not involve people's health and wellbeing (I was working in industry), I didn't have a choice of using some other bit of equipment that I fancied more, because the one I was given was a bit tricky to use at times.
I don't think accountability for overall improvement is located anywhere specific in any NHS trust and from what I've heard, just getting a few changes through a team of clinicians is enough to get people banging their heads against the wall.|
|13 months ago I could not see how DEMG could survive. Now at least it looks possible, although the flat revenue is a bit disappointing. I need to put in a lot more study before I understand how the UK can neutralise such strong growth elsewhere. Revenues were only marginally down in the first 6 months, partly due to the timing of a large US stocking order depressing first half probe sales to the US. With that and the strong growth outside the UK, and especially in the US, and the weak pound I had expected decent growth in 2nd half revenues and hence at least some growth in full year revenues. Anyhow, I'm very relieved at the latest 2 US platform hospitals, bringing us up to the target 30.
I heard report on the BBC of attempts to introduce efficient wood burning stoves in India. Most in India cook on open wood fires, which use a lot of wood and tis results in a lot of pollution related disease. Several institutions have attempted to introduce efficient affordable stoves that would use less wood and produce much less pollution in the home, but the stoves were not popular and fell into disuse. The report I listened to described a project which distributed the stoves and then followed up to find out whether the stoves were being used, if not why not and how the design could be modified. There were various reasons why the stoves of various design fell out of use, but by using the feedback to modify the design the project claimed to have reached 95% long term acceptance of the current design of stoves.
I thought of DEMG when I listened to this. The awkwardness of using the old style probe was certainly known on this BB years ago, but Ewan dismissed it, saying it just needed a little practice. When UK probe sales started to fall (3 years ago IIRC, but I haven't checked) Ewan said it was caused by de-stocking. I asked at the time what the drop out rate was among users, and Ewan said once a surgeon/anaesthetist had used DEMGs device, they would always use it. Over the subsequent years it has become apparent that the fall in UK use was not just de-stocking. I may be being unfair, and maybe Ewan was onto the problem straight away and the problem was just difficult to address. However, I suspect that like the people distributing efficient wood stoves to Indian households, Ewan just knew his product was good and did not pay close enough attention to the customers' problems.
Hopefully those problems are now being ironed out.|
|My assumption is that new US hospital accounts are breakeven at best for the first 6-12 months because of the cost of a trainer. Presumably this service is removed once enough anesthetists are proficient giving a significant hike in profitability as contracts move to supply and support only.
I think they will need to raise up to £1m this year perhaps in two smaller tranches (to reduce dilution) if they think there is going to be some price progression later this year.|
FY16 group revenues reached £6.3m in FY16 vs £6.2m (ex-research barter sales of £0.2m) marginally lower than the £6.4m total in FY15. KPI probe sales reached £5.4m (£5.2m) with sustained momentum from US revenues, up 40% to £1.9m in FY16, counterbalancing UK weakness. Looking ahead, with two new platform accounts added post year end, DEMG has reached a milestone of 30 US platform accounts, which could see higher margin US sales outperform other geographies for the first time in 2017.
By contrast, as flagged, UK sales declined 26% vs FY15 to £1.9m as a result of attrition and the lack of advanced haemodynamic management within the NHS. Meanwhile, revenues from international sales grew 20% to £1.7m led by France, Scandinavia, Peru and Korea, illustrating the potential in these most ODM-receptive markets.
The overall picture is of higher margin US sales on track to lead revenues from FY17. This, coupled with cost-cutting initiatives including in-house probe assembly leading to c £30,000 net savings/month, suggest margin expansion towards historical 70% levels is in sight. DEMG‘s end 2016 cash position of £0.6m, net of an £0.5m fund raise in July, provides short term funding. Pressure on sales has led to downgrades and a volatile 12-month share price performance. The current EV sales multiple of 2x implies expectations of further downgrades, although the current run rate in the US suggests DEMG could have reversed the overall financial downward trend. We will reinstate forecasts at the FY16 results due to be reported in the week of 20 March.|
|Thanks. Be safer to raise 500K or so I guess - no point in underinvesting when things are turning up.
In theory, if the US is still in what you might call a trial phase, with early adoption still taking place, then if the product has in most hospitals still got to be rolled out, sales should accelerate very significantly. ie. there's increasing sales from earlier hospitals plus increasing number of new hospitals.
Not quite a gravy train yet though !|
|Yump - yesish
1H burn was £1.8m or £300k/month (just look at financing and movement in cash bal)
2H burn unknown as we don't know about other movements in working cap
I have assumed the invoice discounting facility (note 8 in 1H report) will have increased back to circa £0.8m from £0.5m giving a 2H burn of around £100k/month if other WC balances unchanged
So yes a step change move in the right direction but a further small fundraise likely imo
But everything else appears to be moving in the right direction (even if just a slowing of reduced usage in UK) and I'm impressed with US growth. Roughly one third split between UK, US and RoW.
|Does this look right ?
Year end 2015: Cash of GBP0.6m: GBP3.0m (after expenses) raised in Q1 2016 to repay GBP1m convertible loan and provide additional working capital
|Interims 2016: Cash available of GBP0.5m (31 December 2015, GBP0.6m) with GBP0.45m additional capital raised in July
So that looks like a burn of about 2.0m for first half ?
Today's update: Cash at bank of GBP0.6m (1 July 2016: GBP0.95m including the fundraise announced in July 2016)
Burn of about 350K ? which is a drastic reduction.
If so, with accelerating probe sales and reducing NHS drops, perhaps this actually is now at a watershed or tipping point or whatever it should be called.|
|Back in on the bell and several subsequent trades - little market interest it appears
Has remained on watch since I sold out many years back
Back in now as there appears to have been a step change reduction in cash burn in 2H
I expect a further small fundraise this year but might even be profitable in 2018!
Given 1H loss and cash burn the FY results will be poor but hopefully Market will take note if 1H17 results show continuing improvement from 2H16
GL - SJ|
|Last 24 US Accounts:
|There'll be a trading update some time this month.|