Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[8w] 06/1/2017 10:19

Short trading statement from CKN.... earnings on target for 2016

[neilyb675] 06/1/2017 10:17

Hello hello✔㈆4;😎🙌

[spooky] 06/1/2017 09:38

Looks as though it may be trying to gain some traction.

[spooky] 05/1/2017 11:00

Anybody selling a stock i hold is a nasty piece of work as far as i am concerned. Currently only hold a starter position.

[emeraldzebra] 05/1/2017 10:53

he sounds like a nasty piece of work....

[spooky] 03/1/2017 08:57

He still appears to be loitering around this morning, i don't currently have the confidence to take him out. I have never been convinced by management so i will probably need some more hard facts before piling in.

[wjccghcc] 03/1/2017 08:28

Hopefully it was just year end selling by a fund to remove a losing position from their figures.

[spooky] 02/1/2017 22:34

There is a fairly persistent, sizeable seller. I agree with you on the valuation,the question is whether there will be one more lurch lower.

[wjccghcc] 02/1/2017 21:19

Well, I value it at over 400p so have been increasing my holding quite a lot at 275p. The dividend may be cut but remember they're also going to receive 2mm from the sale of the Baltic Exchange in H2.

The broking division should make 8mm even with the depressed rates, which, given 20% tax and a PE of 15 gives a value of 100mm. Logistics makes 2mm which on a PE of 10 after tax gives 16mm value. So those two divisions alone are worth 380p. They have an average net cash position during the year so nothing off for that so even if the technical division is worthless (which it isn't) that's 40% upside.

If you estimate around 1 x sales for the technical division since it's a people rather than a product business, that gives a total value of 450p.

There's always a chance of more nasties in the technical area but it wouldn't surprise me to see them bid for by someone like Fisher.

[edmundshaw] 01/1/2017 12:01

If the dividend is halved there will be a progressive policy and the dividend will recover, as will earnings with the shipping cycle.

With patience, this share will be profitable as long as management continues doing an OK job and shipping is not superseded with, say, teleportation, or antigravity :-)

Of course if your target is 25%+ capital growth per annum, perhaps this is the wrong share for you. Though, realistically, no-one achieves that kind of return year after year without a massive dollop of luck.

[jon123] 30/12/2016 16:51

if the dividend is halved its still over 4% I'm not saying it will or won't be just not that great a deal really well not in my eyes anyway

[3800] 30/12/2016 10:20

Doe's anyone feel that the dividend will get held or not? It hasn't been cut since 2002 but the current level doe's seem unsustainable.
3800

[emeraldzebra] 30/12/2016 10:16

certainly i would like to think we have now seen the worst in the share price and things should pick up from here, albeit slowly...

[emeraldzebra] 28/12/2016 10:43

true. But VOLUME of deals trends downwards in bad markets, which also not helpful....

[emeraldzebra] 28/12/2016 10:43

true. But VOLUME of deals trends downwards in bad markets, which also not helpful....

[spooky] 28/12/2016 10:02

I would just be a little cautious about trading BMS in relation to shipping rates, there isn't a lot of correlation between the two IMO.

[spooky] 27/12/2016 22:36

What sort of 'shipping turnaround' are you looking for?

[ny boy] 27/12/2016 17:36

9% divi for a reason, any likelihood of a shipping turnaround next year

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 22/12/2016 18:08

Thanks guys.
I appreciate your help.

[shalder] 22/12/2016 17:13

Platts give daily tanker market info including VLCCs

[emeraldzebra] 22/12/2016 17:08

The baltic exchange publishes the daily indices and i think they are in the FT daily. Have a look at their site...i think if you want access to them as they are released - you might have to pay....

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 22/12/2016 16:06

Hi emerald

Can you suggest a good site for freight prices and vlcc day rates?
Thanks in advance

[emeraldzebra] 22/12/2016 14:59

Spook....er, cough cough, you assume wrong and that strategy a little simplistic even for me....i just think they are far-better-run outfits. (i should know --- i used to work at Braemar back in the noughties, and the share price has slid south like a greased pig, ever since i left (haha) ). Of course both will push better if we see a sustained push up in freight rates - which is not an unreasonable expectation - given the near historic badness of the market now. Of course, James Fisher is a different play, in sofar as it is an owner - exposed to v specialised sectors of the market, and expertly run. Believe it is round about the oldest company on the exchange so i like to think it occasionally gets a few things right at least....