Braemar Share Discussion Threads

[danieldruff2] 30/1/2018 10:14

Trading statement never been this late before. Either it's taking them some time to work out the contribution from NAVES, or maybe there's some corporate activity afoot...

[edmundshaw] 23/1/2018 14:10

Unfortunately, there is continuing oversupply of tankers in 2018. That variable is not going to get better for at least another year. Cheap money and ignorant financiers have been skewing this market for an unreasonably silly amount of time.

Remains to be seen how BMS cope with this supply-side anomaly.

[gargoyle2] 23/1/2018 12:45

FY results 8 May, but there should be a trading update very soon (23 Jan last year, 14 Jan the year before).

[smicker] 23/1/2018 12:27

When are results due?

[mount teide] 23/1/2018 11:27

As mentioned in early December, the bulk carrier, container and LNG tanker spot markets have performed strongly in H2, while the oil tanker spot market has been much weaker by comparison.

As BMS is overweight the oil tanker sector and the equally weak oil service sector, the market may be speculating on a weaker H2 result than Clarkson's which has a more diversified shipbroking exposure.

This scenario continues to play out in comparative valuations, with Clarksons breaking out to set a number of new all-time highs while Braemar continues to weaken.

[eastbourne1982] 23/1/2018 09:45

I'm tempted at these levels however in these markets I'll wait to read the update, anything negative is getting thumped regardless of the share price.

I may miss out however the risk isn't worth it.

[boonkoh] 23/1/2018 09:11

Psync: low volumes so I wouldn't worry too much. But yes, looks like doom and gloom coming?

[psync] 23/1/2018 09:02

Blimey. Price here has sunk back to the depths. I guess no one is expecting much from the forthcoming statement if it ever lands.

[cwa1] 12/1/2018 15:02

Afternoon. Just had a modest nibble here at about 260 to get back aboard after a long absence. Nothing more than a speculative punt ahead of any TS and hoping-but not expecting-that most of the bad news is in the price already. Would certainly be nice to hear that they've turned the corner and looking forward expectantly. Good fortune to all holders here.

[smicker] 12/1/2018 11:39

Anyone know why the baltic dirty tanker and dry index fall each new year period?

[mount teide] 24/12/2017 17:41

Shipping Market Festive Review of the year - Clarksons


'At this time of year, icy conditions are not uncommon, but the warmth of the festive season is usually enough to melt even the coldest of hearts. Going into this year, shipping market activity might have still felt pretty iced up for many, but increased activity in a number of core areas in 2017 has seen the shipping market temperature rise a little...

Checking The Thermometer

In general, our ClarkSea Index provides a helpful way to take the temperature of industry earnings, measuring the performance of the key ‘volume’ market sectors (tankers, bulkers, boxships and gas carriers). Since the start of Q4 2008 it has averaged $11,816/day, compared to $23,667/day between the start of 2000 and the end of Q3 2008. However, earnings aren’t the only thing that can provide ‘heat’ in shipping. Investor appetite for vessel acquisition has often added ‘heat’ to the market in the form of investment in newbuild or secondhand tonnage, even at times when earnings have remained challenged. To examine this, we revisit the quarterly ‘Shipping Heat Index’, which reflects not only vessel earnings but also investment activity, to see how much hotter or colder 2017 has really been.

Not Quite So Cold Now?

This year, the Shipping Heat Index (see graph description) shows us that things, though still chilly, have been warming up a little. In 2016 the quarterly index averaged 37.4. This year it has averaged 49.4, an increase of 32% on 2016, and in Q4 stands at 46.1, up 25% year-on-year. Q3 2016 saw the lowest reading in the featured period. This year’s peak at 55.0 in Q2 was still some way below ‘hotter’ levels seen sporadically since the financial crisis, with newbuild investment in particular still limited, but was much closer to the average since Q4 2008 of 59.6.

Thaw Goodness Sake

One factor behind this has been that, on a broad basis, earnings have started to improve this year. The ClarkSea Index has averaged $10,718/day, up 14% on its average level in 2016 (the lowest since the 1980s); there have been marked improvements away from the bottom of the cycle in the bulker and boxship markets.

Hot Money?

Meanwhile, the investment side has seen an even more positive, if still mixed, picture. Contracting, although more than 40% up on full year 2016 in value terms, remained limited at $53bn in the first eleven months of 2017. S&P investment meanwhile has seen an active year. Around $19bn so far is an improvement of nearly 55% on 2016 (and the fourth highest annual level since 2008), reflecting that, albeit with many distressed assets out there, investors perhaps harbour warmer feelings towards the markets.

Still Wintry, But Warmer

So, the shipping markets still look like a chilly environment. However, although earnings alone suggest a slight thawing in conditions, a wider view of the temperature of the shipping markets points towards a greater degree of heat, with S&P investors in particular helping to bring back some much-needed warmth. Have a nice holiday season.'

[shalder] 12/12/2017 20:27

All good points. I would only add that at the point of issuing the results for H1 on 23 October, they would already have a partial fix on H2 from the state of the FOB at that date so it must have been enough to justify the Chairman's statement that "We are in line to meet our objectives for the full year."

[mount teide] 12/12/2017 18:31

The bulk carrier, container and LNG tanker spot markets have performed strongly in H2, while the oil tanker spot market has been much weaker by comparison.

Since BMS has an overweight exposure to the oil tanker sector and the equally weak oil service sector, the market may be speculating on a weaker H2 result than Clarkson's, whose more diversified shipbroking exposure should be more aligned to the performance of the BDI.

[shalder] 12/12/2017 16:40

Just had a look at the chart for 2016, there was a similarly big fall in the share price at precisely the same time (i.e. 14/12) last year, so your theory may well be right - could some of it be employee related sales?

[shalder] 12/12/2017 16:09

Your comments make sense to me - personal window dressing looks a possible cause. Nothing in the last trading update suggests otherwise.

[smicker] 12/12/2017 15:36

I'm always suspicious of large falls near year end where a share has had a poor year but the volume isnt large enough to be a fund selling. Maybe some personal window dressing for year end? Doing that myself this week truth be told.

[shalder] 12/12/2017 15:32

The VLCC spot market has been very weak lately but I would not think that explains the big fall in the BMS sp, plus this is not evident with CKN.

[smicker] 12/12/2017 14:30

Had a quick look at the BDI to see if that had come off but its making yearly highs and up circa 80% this year. Anyone any idea why we are off 10% in a few days?

[mount teide] 06/11/2017 13:36

Some encouraging news for BMS, whose stockbroking portfolio is heavily weighted to the tanker sector.

Lloyd's List - today

'The crude oil shipping industry will require about 45 more very large crude carriers to meet growing demand for China's oil imports, according to BIMCO’s latest assessment. With China importing crude from more distant regions compared with 2016, tonne-miles generated have increased 18%, translating to 33m tonnes of extra crude oil demand, or around 900,000 barrels per day on average over the first three quarters of the year.

LNG shipping’s bull cycle has kicked off in earnest with earnings hitting a three-year high amid winter demand from Asia and rising exports from Australia and the US. Charter rates for 160,000 cu m vessels are hitting $60,000 per day in some areas – up by more than a third from last month.

[turbocharge] 23/10/2017 15:05

Some positives:

Braemar will eventually come out of the cyclical downturn in the shipping market.

Current share price is low compared with proven earnings over the last ten years.

Braemer is one of the leading players in its specialist markets and is run by seasoned managers.

[walbrock82] 23/10/2017 14:54

Despite the recovery in the Baltic Dry Index, their interim results are disappointing.
Assessing the long-run, sees Braemar failing to increase their margins, while productivity per staff is collapsing.
For more and other companies’ analysis, click

[turbocharge] 23/10/2017 14:47

I'll be topping up if the offer dips below 290

[smicker] 23/10/2017 10:51

"As expected, the tanker markets continued to soften. The Baltic Dirty Tankers Index dropped by 19% from 835 at 28 February 2017 to 677 at 31 August 2017."

This is currently back up to 896. One data point worth noting possibly alongside the BDI

[shalder] 23/10/2017 10:25

Investment case looks intact to me, plus interim dividend at the top end of what could reasonably be expected with the stated policy. I'm staying with this.