Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[acamas] 19/2/2017 12:19

waterloo01,

Can I just add on inflation of 3-5% the government of the day will do all they can to keep inflation where it is currently. The one reason for this is PENSIONS. The Government will find it hard to uplift OAP's by £4.50 to £7 per week and private pensions that are not linked to inflation will fail to keep up with the cost of living. The politicians know this and if it happens will cost them votes. Well that is how I see it unfolding bwdik

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/2/2017 10:57

#waterloo01, fair point on inflation, and we are currently running at 1.8%, still below the BOE's target 2%, but will this tear away in '17/18 to a point where they will have to stamp on it with interest rate hikes, which in turn will stifle the very growth they are desperately looking to find..?

Time will tell I guess, but all good debate on a Sunday morning..!

[waterloo01] 19/2/2017 10:43

I have to disagree re interest rates as I think you will see them gather some pace over the next 12 months, especially as inflation kicks in (I think we'll see 3-5% inflation in the UK by year end and possibly interest 1% rate by early 2018). Barclays et all can offer low rates as they 'hedge' the mortgage rate by selling long term bonds at a lower rate, so they can't lose.

Regardless, certainly at the moment and until rates hit something closer to 2%, money will still flow into the markets as long as companies can maintain dividends that beat interest rates.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 19/2/2017 10:11

#HG/Husbod.. Boom/Bust crashes have and always will happen, 1987/2000/2008/201x..?

Equities are without doubt pumped up on QE, and further boosted by zero interest rates, it's interest rates that drive economies, and reckless lending / investment banking triggering the crashes.
Interest rates aren't going up any time soon, I wish they would, but it's very unlikely we will get to anywhere near a number that's worth putting your cash into bank deposits and not needing to chase better growth and equity yields.

US rates crept up 0.25% recently, UK rates now 0.25%, I can't see them getting to 1% by 2020, I learnt last night that Barclays are now offering a 10 year fixed mortgage product at 2.5% with no set up fees at all.., so they are confident they can still borrow money and make a killing on it for a decade.

Very interesting times, the business case for Copper is robust, and with the supply disruptions we could see $3.00 Copper this year, now Escondida are on strike and the unions digging their heels in this will be seen as the benchmark for the rest of the majors which spells trouble, our 40,000 Tonnes is chicken feed compared to the 1M Tonne majors, but that's where the trouble is going to come from, and to our advantage to sell into.. Atalaya are along for the ride and currently enjoying every moment, long may it continue..!

[husbod] 18/2/2017 23:53

In normal times yes hg but the trouble is where is the cash going to go if not into equities. The time to worry is when interest rates start to rise. That looks a while yet except in the States and the Donald might not be too keen on that. Next to no chance of interest rises in Europe or most of the rest of the world although there are clearly political events that could cause problems.

[head gardener] 18/2/2017 18:32

A note of caution is beginning to filter through to markets and investors,If there is a correction commodities will not escape, keep some cash and gold.Hope this will not occur, but it is long overdue.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/2/2017 11:26

#robmcelf2, he's probably thrown the towel in..!, 'new permits', are a cloaked way of increasing the governments share through revised taxation, I've read that to get the new 'permit', Freeport have to wave rights to a number of things, and commit to doing their smelting locally, and getting taxed locally..

Using many of our Copper peers PE measure ATYM is undervalued, with a forward PE of about 2.5/3.0 and making $60-70M a year with no tax to pay for a couple of years we are well positioned.. @$3.00 Copper with further plant efficiencies yet to be reported we would be making c$1.00 a pound profit..

We need FY2016 figures, and the 2017 Q1 figures on the board to demonstrate profits, then the wider market will take notice..

On Astor, I'm confident we will see a ruling in our favour, then revised terms agreed moving forward, no idea what they will be, but a win for us will be leverage to make them more to our advantage what ever they are..

The handbrake on the share price is Astor and reported evidence of earnings.., a dividend would help for sure, even a token 1 would put us on the map..!

[acamas] 18/2/2017 10:50

Once this share does awaken to put on a pound sterling to the share price should be a stroll in the park. It is a long while since I felt this upbeat about this stock

[robmcelf2] 18/2/2017 10:38

I see the Freeport Indonesia CEO has just resigned as well to add to it all!

[waterloo01] 18/2/2017 09:18

I think we are getting close to a perfect storm here, especially if Alberto is doing what he seems rather good at (running a mine and getting costs down). Even if Ator win (which I don't think the will) the debt is manageable out of cash. The uncertainty is holding back the share price and I continue to see it as a buying opportunity. If copper does get closer to $3.00 in short order and the case finally gets a judgement (either way) we should finally see something closer to fair value, which given the comparisons to other copper miners is well out of kilter.

[acamas] 18/2/2017 08:55

LLB,

Selling all we can produce and more. The cash will be rolling in and as they say in this game "Cash is King". To tempt fate what can there be to block our advancement this time?

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 18/2/2017 08:50

Not good news for Freeport or BHP, but I did like the note on potential $3.00 Copper..!

If this is indicative of the global disruptions to come in 2017, it can only be good for Copper prices and Atalaya, we have indeed landed in a perfect storm to be geared up to 9.5MTPA, and selling our product into the rising Copper prices.., not a bad problem to have..!
Negotiations @ Escondida will be a barometer and set precedents for many other wage negotiations globally, so it's reasonable to expect even more disruption, as things tend to end in strikes anytime unions and money are involved..

News due:

(1) Astor ruling
(2) FY2016 figures (April)
(3) Q1 figures (April) + financials in May

[acamas] 18/2/2017 08:34

waterloo01,

Could this be our year to shine? It appears to me that what we have is desirable.

[waterloo01] 18/2/2017 08:27

Ian interesting link. Doesn't look like it's about to be resolved anytime soon.

"Those two mines are currently offline and that's about 2 million tonnes - almost 10 percent of global copper supply – which is a big deal," Jefferies analyst Chris LaFemina said.

It certainly puts into perspective owning a mine (any mine) in regions where govt can 'change the rules' to such an extent. Surely a mine in the relative safe harbour of Europe should be at a premium!

[head gardener] 17/2/2017 18:31

Orian are no fools, they are just calling a top to this inflated market, as are Blackrock, Goldmans,and any sane individual. Gold must be the preference of choice.

[poleaxe] 17/2/2017 18:22

No rp i thought perhaps you were taking to the stage.

[acamas] 17/2/2017 17:22

Must say I am fascinated by how Orian sale will go. Could it turnout to be an auction? They should have a queue at their door. Definitely a sellers market or have I got it all wrong?

[rougepierre] 17/2/2017 17:11

Maybe this is the reason copper has slipped today....

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 17/2/2017 15:37

#waterloo01, 'offload' is perhaps the wrong choice of word, it indicates a pressurised position, I think they could simply see an opportunity to sell on their off take rights for a profit with a rising Copper price here and now, and forecast to go higher throughout 17/18/19..., market supply could contract rapidly, Escondida will be a barometer for many other mines/unions/workers, supply disruption is inevitable, it's just the scale we don't know yet..!

Who knows, but a key II looking to sell their Copper entitlement is all part of business.., they still have their shares..!

[iankn73] 17/2/2017 15:18

Yes, agreed waterloo. This rumour has been swirling around for many months now, so not really news as such.

It will be interesting to find out who decides to take ownership of the offtakes.

Have a good weekend all.

[waterloo01] 17/2/2017 14:56

I would like to point out that Orion announcing that they are looking to offload a good section of their offtakes is very good news as not that long ago, I think VAN suggested that Orion were trying to offload ATYM offtakes specifically. That is clearly not the case. It's not mine specific but driven by Orions needs.

[nedludd] 17/2/2017 13:52

I think we could be in for a long wait to get the Astor judgement. I believe a Judge can have up to 90 days to answer and the Plaintiff is not able to request a "Progress Report" until this time has elapsed. Depends on what work-load he has or whether cases are considered in chronological order, I guess.

If this share runs true to form, no sooner we get some news which we think will boost the share price the opposite happens and then we look for something else to give us hope.

Now I know how the Donkey ( carrot and stick) feels.