Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[husbod] 21/2/2017 16:46

American equities roaring away again. Perhaps, instead of inviting The Donald for a state visit we should ask him if he would mind being our Prime minister for a few years.

Imagine how that would go down with our luvvies.

I don't know why but I just can't stop grinning.

[waterloo01] 21/2/2017 14:27

LLB, agree should we win, depending on the details of the judgement, we should be in a very strong bargaining position. I'd favour paying them them ASAP as long as they cancel the marketing agreement and the extra based on copper over $3.00.

[waterloo01] 21/2/2017 14:24

Oh the risk of owning mining rights where the rule of law doesn't seem to really apply. We should be at a premium!

[cufes2] 21/2/2017 12:46

There didn't appear to be a liquidity problem from 80p to 160p . . . In fact the small free float helped the rise IMHO . . . I can't believe we are still having conversations about those pesky MMs . . .

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/2/2017 11:55

IMO the Astor case isn't the huge handbrake on the share price some may think, it's definitely not helping much, the €53M debt will still exist after the ruling, so the impact on company financials won't change much win or lose the trigger clause.. BUT there is more potential upside for us post judgement from the renegotiating of terms if we win, and using the leverage of a win to strike a better deal on the 6/7 year repayment schedule, the +$3.00 Copper bonus payment, and the Astor brokerage fee for every DMT, which is €11/Tonne of concentrate or €2.2/year.., so this element alone adds up to more that I originally thought..

Exclusive agreement to provide agency services to Company on all concentrate sold
For the first 932,000 dmt concentrate sales a base marketing fee of EUR11.25/dmt of concentrate sold is payable plus additional escalating fees dependent on copper price for the remaining balance of 1,438,000 dmt of concentrate sold a commission of EUR22.50/dmt is payable.

So 40KT of Copper, (200KT of concentrate PA @ 11€/T) = €2.2M PA, for c5 years (total €11M) plus another 7 years @ €22/T to a maximum of €15.9M

(1) €53M is the deferred amount due (or not triggered tbc)
(2) Quarterly payments of €0.66mm during the Deferred Consideration period when the copper price is US$3.0/lb+ up to a total of €15.9M, cost of brokerage fees on the 932,000+1438,000 = €26.9M total capped.

Total cost of package to Astor is €79.9M..? subject to triggers, there's room to strike a better deal than that IMO, but we need a favourable ruling to use as leverage to get into it..

[rougepierre] 21/2/2017 11:23

It's easy to forget how illiquid this share was...

IMHO the recent liquidity has been a result of us approaching and passing the Placing price, shaking out some loose or fearful holders...

Some may think that if the market is short of shares the price will be bid up...actually, very often the MMs will mark prices down to shake people out...

For this share to realise its full potential we need more institutional buying and, before too long, we need to be in the FTSE 350 at least.

One of the things you often see written about on these boards is the proportion of 'free float'. Look at the shares where it is pitifully small and the inaction and undervaluation of some.

ATYM remains off many people's radar, despite the obvious and compelling attractions. It has languished despite the excellent news on production and the certainty that we are now generating positive cashflow...probably at handsome levels...

So some may say it's the Astor factor...and that may be true...but it was the Astor factor that slammed the shares down in the first place, over a year ago...we still haven't adequately recovered.

When I was GFD of an AIM company, we had a liquidity problem and the shares just languished because instis bought them at the float and then never sold any. I persuaded the owner to release some of his, the share price moved up and kept moving up (and transformed the value of my options...)

I'm not saying the Big 4 SHOULD sell shares. This is a discussion board. Thanks for the objective replies...

AIMHO as usual...

[saintb] 21/2/2017 10:53

I am not anticipating any significant change in the share price following the result of the Astor case ( which I believe will go in our favour ). It has very little influence on the overall future of the company if the copper price continues to rise and production is un-interrupted.

Things will improve once we announce a profit IMO. This is some months ahead, so I am lettings matters take their course and looking forward to an exciting late spring/early summer. I have lots of things to do in the meantime.

[cufes2] 21/2/2017 10:51

Agreed, on the one hand we are told Trafigura are complete sharks and then we are expected to believe they will forego millions in capital gains and dividends to provide the market with some liquidity . . .

[husbod] 21/2/2017 10:51

I'll sell some of mine to improve liquidity ...... once they're worth £3+

Anyway a nice tightish holding means that the share price will react to lower levels of buying than if we were super liquid. It works the other way around as well unfortunately.

Did we think the market was illiquid before Liberty built their holding - I honestly can't remember.

[superbobtaylor] 21/2/2017 10:31

I agree Erric / CuFe. No way will any of the major shareholders sell just to increase liquidity.

SBT

[erric] 21/2/2017 10:21

I agree entirely CuFe.
Sometimes, I think it is just you and I that believe the most likely long term hope for dividends and an increase in the share price is because that will give our major shareholders an effective discount on the prevailing copper price.

You wouldn't sell any of your shares just to give the market some liquidity.

[selber82] 21/2/2017 10:10

It used to be that judges tried to clear their desks of pending judgements by the end of each quarter.The next quarter day is 25 March!,

[cufes2] 21/2/2017 06:59

Why would the current shareholders all sell shares together when most of you are claiming EMED is extremely undervalued and it will be throwing off large amounts of cash and so forego millions in dividends . . . It doesn't make sense IMHO . . .

[head gardener] 20/2/2017 20:19

RP, you have certainly ejaculated you point of veiw.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/2/2017 19:10

Copper on a roll today @ $2.76/lb, it's reasonable to expect our share price to take notice sometime soon.., up the bid and a few sellers might come out to provide some liquidity..!

Mine aren't for sale tho', I like the logic/fundamentals behind the Copper story so much I bought some more last week.. :o)

[bewise2] 20/2/2017 16:48

Copper at 2.74, The Astor factor is stopping our share price from flying, hopefully the judgement will be a matter of weeks not months. I would imagine there are investors waiting patiently on the sidelines for the outcome before piling into this....Rio Tinto mine is a win win situation once Astor is sorted. Copper price predicted to increase by 33% by 2020 which means massive profits, a possible dividend and a share price well well past £3.00(10p)....

[dofmeister] 20/2/2017 16:31

H, yes you will be able to get a copy of the Judgement.

[husbod] 20/2/2017 14:17

charlieeeeeeeee - is a copy of the judgement available, at a cost, to the public as well. I know it could feature in a Law Report of some nature but it would indeed be interesting to have access to the full judgement (if we win).

Copper doing quite well atm and if there are only a few shares left at 150p that would also be a good sign.

[waterloo01] 20/2/2017 14:08

Only a few left at 1.50, MM will have to move soon?

[acamas] 20/2/2017 10:39

charlieeee,

Thanks for the reply

[waterloo01] 20/2/2017 10:39

Indeed, the rather nice stenographer was hard at work (he also took his own notes on the points of law).

[charlieeee] 20/2/2017 10:37

Acamas

It is all recorded.

Transcripts can be requested (at a cost) by anyone.

[acamas] 20/2/2017 10:27

waterloo01,

It would be interesting to shadow the Judge and be privy to his every thought on the case because the longer it takes to reach a decision the more problematical it must be recalling what actually took place in The Court itself unless every spoken word is somehow recorded and can readily be referred to. If not as time passes the memories will fade and may cause some complexity in reaching a fair judgement

[waterloo01] 20/2/2017 09:35

Alberto told me it could be weeks or months. All in judges hands.