Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rougepierre] 14/2/2017 15:33

well said...

[acamas] 14/2/2017 14:47

Iankn73,

In the momentum dept this share has doubled in price within 3 months from 80p to 160p and we are all concerned about the court case. It is in a select group to achieve that. Once the judgement is known and 3 6 and 9 months figures are published this share will at least have doubled again imo.

If momentum means anything in this game then ATYM is a red rose in a field of very nice yellow roses. It sticks out a mile


Edit : the FTSE100 has gone up about 10% in the same period

[spcecks] 14/2/2017 14:32

Agree the share price is too low.

[iankn73] 14/2/2017 14:27

Well said. I couldn't agree more Acamas.

[acamas] 14/2/2017 14:25

Iankn73,

I agree once we start to post profits the carpetbaggers will come running of that I am sure

[iankn73] 14/2/2017 14:15

I recall Alberto saying that if copper reaches $3.00 that its basically a license to print money. We are only 23 cents away and yet we are languishing in the £1.50s... this craziness cant last much longer.

[waterloo01] 14/2/2017 13:34

Copper looks like it's firming up at $2.80. If we do make $70m profit in a full year (I know some have higher numbers) that puts us on price to profit of about x 3.

Kaz even with $3bn of debt are on over x 14.

I suspect at least one of these, if not both are out of kilter.

[sirmoori] 13/2/2017 20:16

Copper (Lex, today)

Escondida strike raises broader supply fears for copper
Dispute is the latest fillip for a metal that last year underperformed its rivals

Copper has jumped in the past few days to a two-year high after a strike at the Escondida mine in central Chile

February 13, 2017 5:12 pm by Henry Sanderson

The reaction to a strike at the world’s largest copper mine underlines the sharp reversal in fortune in one of the world’s key metals over the past four months.

Copper has jumped 5 per cent in the past two days to a two-year high after a strike at the Escondida mine in Chile raised supply fears about a market that has been starved of investment.

The dispute at the BHP Billiton mine, which produces around 1.2m tonnes of copper a year, is the latest fillip for a metal that last year underperformed the likes of zinc and iron ore until Donald Trump’s unexpected US election victory. The prospect of the White House launching a major burst of infrastructure spending, as well as signs of resilience in the Chinese economy, have pushed the copper price up 13 per cent since US election day.


Current sentiment has also been helped after a phone call between Mr Trump and China’s president Xi Jinping eased the prospect of trade tensions between the US and the world’s largest consumer of the metal.

“We think markets have yet to price in longer than expected supply shocks and better than expected economic fundamentals in China,” said Helen Lau, an analyst at Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong.

With more than two thousand workers striking over pay and benefits, the price for copper — whose role in wiring makes it a key global commodity — has been pushed higher after BHP late last week declared force majeure on copper contracts from the mine.

Analysts say the strike is also drawing attention to the potential for supply disruptions elsewhere in the copper market which, after five years of falling prices, has seen little investment in new supply.

Forecasts for supply typically incorporate an allowance of 5-6 per cent of annual production to be lost to natural causes or other disruptions. However, coming so early in the year, the Escondida strike raises the risks that those assumptions will prove too conservative.

“There isn’t structurally a shortage of copper in the market but if the world’s biggest producer goes offline for a significant period of time that changes,” said Paul Benjamin, an analyst at energy consultant Wood Mackenzie.

The metal has had a good rally and needs a rest
Last year the copper market was broadly balanced between supply and demand, with only a small 350,000 tonnes surplus, according to Wood Mackenzie. However, banks are already downgrading their expectations for supply growth this year. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, for example, cut their forecast for supply to fall 0.4 per cent instead of growing 1 per cent because of the likelihood of more industrial disputes.

If investors and traders are becoming more wary about the prospect of future supply disruptions, they say the effect of the Escondida strike is also amplified by the demand cycle in China.

The strike in Chile comes just as Chinese demand typically picks up following the new year holiday, which ended at the start of the month. The disruptions could force the market into a deficit, now rather than at the end of March as typically happens, says Max Layton, an analyst at Goldman Sachs.

“The timing of these disruptions is important,” he said.

[rougepierre] 13/2/2017 17:03

I completely understand acamas...I held ABH and I had a friend who was a top expert in that field. He also came from the same location as their labs. He told me to get rid because the word locally was that they were going bust...so I did and, because I was active on the BB, out of a generous spirit I shared why I was selling...

I ended up getting a death threat and, later in relation to another share he warned a friend of mine that if I turned up at the AGM he couldn't guarantee my safety...

Ah well...symptomatic of far too many forums these days...

At least we have a good community here (thanks erric) with a variety of opinions and, recently, a great deal of goodwill and mutual support and information...

Cheers mate

[acamas] 13/2/2017 16:39

rp,

I knew it was not at myself. I was just offering some good general advice. In the past I have observed some bitter cross chat between people with differing positions/views on the same share. From it I have learnt not to be too specific on my own dealings because it can be the spark that starts a nasty verbal spat.

So now silence is the way for me in this game. I had a terrible time when TLW took over HNR. I made a considerable sum while others lost a lot of dosh. Because HNR had very good oil leases and no cash and were going bust. TLW came along and paid 80p a share they could have got them for 50p. However a lot of the LTH had paid as much as 180p a share and would not accept that 80p was a more than generous price at that time. The messages got really nasty towards me

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/2/2017 15:00

Copper sniffing at $2.80/lb.. share price not taking any notice..!

[rougepierre] 13/2/2017 14:04

Over $2.79....

Yet ATYM is 151/155 and dropping...?

[shortarm] 13/2/2017 13:26

Welcome to AAU guys......I have lots there and also Stratex which is further forward but hasn't seen the benefit yet....

[rougepierre] 13/2/2017 13:23

My strategy is to buy miners that are at or near production...

AAU is right on the verge...it is a natural successor in my portfolio to ATYM...only 6-9 months behind it...

11 Jan

"Process CIL/CIC and ADR* piping and electrical work fully completed, with the process plant ready for operational start-up; automation works are continuing.

Commissioning of ball mill is complete and wet commissioning of the process plant is largely complete, with thickener tests due to be completed this week.

Dry commissioning has been completed and the crushers and screens are now fully operational.

Approximately 7,000 tonnes of ore ranging in grade from 2.7 to 0.5 g/t gold and representing two weeks of production, is stockpiled ready for the first full-scale tests and start-up."

31 Jan

"Stage 1 Tailings Storage Facility ("TSF") completion remains delayed by below average temperatures and wet weather (Figure 1) though conditions are improving.

Process CIL/CIC and ADR* plant operational under manual mode; nearing full automation.

Commissioning of ball mill and thickeners is complete, with first ore due to be fed to the CIL system shortly."

[waterloo01] 13/2/2017 12:51

Lord help you getting into an early stage miner. Lesson not learnt?

[cufes2] 13/2/2017 12:43

FWIW I'm waiting for AAU to break 2p before buying . . . 3-4p then looks achieveable based on the chart IMHO . . .

[rougepierre] 13/2/2017 12:41

That's encouragingly tight...155.3/156.4....

[rougepierre] 13/2/2017 12:36

charliee...thanks a bundle mate...I had missed that...just chucked out all my KEFI and doubled up in AAU instead...just about to announce production...copper/gold miner...way undervalued IMHO...

[rougepierre] 13/2/2017 12:35

acamas...apologies...that was not addressed at you...

[rougepierre] 13/2/2017 12:34

aldermana...I believe we're looking at a prospective P/E of 2/3 as others have said...

based on four brokers' forecasts, the current consensus on TDDI for 2017 is EPS of 24.81, which puts us just over 6 times...and those forecasts haven't been updated for the recent strength in the copper price...

still, even at 8 times, with no debt, it would not be taxing...

[aldermana] 13/2/2017 10:23

Morning all. Copper has broken through the 200 week moving average which has held back the share price for the last 3 months. If it holds above $2.72/lb then we're in very good shape. Market sentiment for copper seems very strong with a general acknowledgment that the market is in deficit and supply is becoming more constrained at a time when demand is increasing. Credit to AL who has been saying this for a year or two and IIRC he thought copper would return to $3-3.50 by 2018.

My current valuation of the share is around £2.30 based on a PE of 8 but I think this is going quite a bit higher.

[charlieeee] 13/2/2017 10:22

O/T

For anyone in Kefi, today's RNS looks like the last nail in the coffin.

Lanstead seems to be the best of a bad bunch re "death spiral" finance, but the likely outcome is a relentless wall of monthly selling: huge dilution raising less cash by the month. (Used by AMC and hated by PIs there, but paled in comparison with Crede, who really did wear the world'd finest shark suits).

Over time, traders will have done well, but Tula Kapi has been an investor's graveyard.

[acamas] 13/2/2017 09:51

waterloo01,

I read somewhere that the timing involved with selling a share is comparable to surfing waves. You speculate pick a wave ride it but get off it before it crashes onto the shingle on the beach.

Yes I do recall GKP especially the downs. I was in TLW & JKL(I think that was its ticker) at the time when they were doing nicely

[waterloo01] 13/2/2017 09:45

Acamas, I don't find it that hard as I've a decent spreadsheet but agree difficult to get it right in buying and selling. I've often over the years sold out at a low and reduced on a rising stock to see it continue to rise. Guess the main thing learnt is a profit is only a profit when it's banked and to cut ones loses early.

On resources stocks I've seen people so pleased with themselves that they start planning how many Rollers they might buy, only to find that they leave selling too late and loose the lot. (GKP springs to mind as do many exploration miners).

Having said that. I'm also overweight here, but I hope with good reason.