Atalaya Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rougepierre] 15/2/2017 18:11

Yes dofmeister but as pointed out above the Q2 C1 costs were $4200, i.e. $1.90...

With full production surely tat is achievable for WTI for the "next three years..."

However, it shines the light back on ATYM, with no debt, being massively underpriced...

But while ATYM has fallen 60% in the last 4 years, WTI has fallen 85% and has been producing almost a year longer...

Enough already...

[rougepierre] 15/2/2017 18:03

OT...understood CuFe...however...

9863 tonnes in H2, of which 3400 at $5077; 3500 at $5000 and 2963 at say $6063 gives an average of $5374 which, with C1 costs of $4200 gives Gross Revenue $53 million and Gross Profit of $1174*9863 = £9.263m...

2017/18...450 at $5102 and 16550 at, say $6063 ($2.75/lb) gives Gross Revenue of over $100 million...and net operating cashflows of an estimated $35 million (£28 million)...

And you have to ask yourself why Orion would have taken the hedging deal as a loan fee if it was going to drive WTI into the ground...

As with ATYM, surely Orion can see there is a huge bonanza around the corner...?

Even with the current copper price, ATYM and WTI will be throwing off stacks of cash...but at over $3.00/lb.....?

AIMHO as usual...

[dofmeister] 15/2/2017 17:58

C1 costs are indeed an illusion as they ignore the cost of finance (substantial with WTI), amortization,reclamation etc

Guidance from WTI for C1 cash costs for current year (issued 26/01/17 : "full financial year C1 costs are now expected to be increased to approximately US$4,600 per tonne" or $2.09 llb

By comparison, current C1 cash costs for next 3 years from ATYM are $1.78.

[husbod] 15/2/2017 17:56

Sounds like the classic slightly dotty English spinster Acamas. A sort of national treasure that is sadly disappearing but that's prgress.Llb - my relatively modest top up today reflected partly my confidence we will win the case, which probably means we will lose it, but mainly the likely continued progress of the mine and the company. Not sure if f Astor will have any grounds for appeal if they lose.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 15/2/2017 17:35

Copper $2.74, but an unresponsive share price here again..

Another day closer to judgement day, but this could/will go to appeal by either party..?

[acamas] 15/2/2017 17:23

Husbod,

We had an English Mistress a small lady called Miss Symthe who called everyone "chum". She was also Headmistress of the Girls and stood in for the Headmaster on occasions. She lived close to the school and always went to St Pauls Cathedral, London for the main Sunday Service. I can see her now with her beret, tartan jacket a plain coloured tweed skirt and dark polished court shoes scurrying along and calling out "morning chum"

Whenever I see etcetra etcetera I think of Yul Brynner in The King and I with The Dance of the Siamese Children

[cufes2] 15/2/2017 16:55

OT re WTI . . . the C1 costs might well be "an illusion" but the company has admitted recently they cannot pay their liabilities at the current Cu price . . .

[husbod] 15/2/2017 16:54

He would have said "Husbod that second etcetera is entirely otiose. In the corner immediately and I do not want to hear you speak for the next three days".

My English teacher was a "Great Man" and inculcated a love of standing in corners that has lasted for all my adult life.

[rougepierre] 15/2/2017 16:54

should all-round be hyphenated...that is the question...?

meanwhile, Buys showing as Sells again...

Leaving aside the two overnight 'straddled' deals (50k Buy; 40k Sell), I estimate total buys today at c34,000 and Sells at c13,000...

[husbod] 15/2/2017 16:49

Not sure my English teacher would have approved of two etceteras erric.

[rougepierre] 15/2/2017 16:45

LME copper stocks have fallen 100,000 tonnes in the last 58 days...now only c248k...

[rougepierre] 15/2/2017 16:33

If you mean me erric, I must sincerely apologise...the spellchecker on my MacBook Pro is doing my head in....

Sorry boss...

Oh and finished on WTI comments...there have been plenty of comparisons with ATYM over on the WTI BB as I'm sure you will have spotted...

[erric] 15/2/2017 16:24

Cosmo, I am really tempted to moderate you again on the grounds of poor grammar, spelling, syntax, all round trendiness etcetera etcetera.

[rougepierre] 15/2/2017 16:16

The C1 costs are an illusion...

The forecast is for the whole of 2016/17 but...

From the June quarter:

"C1 costs for Tschudi for the quarter were US$4,689 per tonne, increasing due to the reduced production and actions taken to manage the groundwater inflow."

And from the September quarter:

"As a result of reduced production, additional costs to deal with the groundwater inflow and adverse exchange rate movements, C1 costs for the quarter increased to US$5,073 per tonne."

But from the December quarter (the groundwater and reduced production problems having been resolved...

"Tschudi production for the quarter was 4,496 tonnes of copper cathode, 5.8% above nameplate, and a record for quarterly production tonnage achieved at Tschudi to date

· With improved production, C1 costs for the quarter have reduced 17% quarter on quarter to US$4,222 per tonne"

And....

"the hedging position we had progressively established to ensure financial stability while getting on top of the groundwater issues mean that the Company is still dependent on support from Orion in the near term..."

So it's eyes wide open and I consider the biggest risk to be Orion converting part of the debt and/or interest payments into equity...

Which is why I have "dipped my toes" and "will buy more if they fall"...

Indeed Finncap has a target of 1.1p based on their forecast from June 2016 when they predicted a 0.32p per share loss for 2016/17...the price of copper is at least 60 cents higher than it was then which, on the unhedged portion, all goes to the bottom line...Finncap's 2017/18 forecast was 0.64p/share which aint bad for a share priced at 0.85p, and...

An average unhedged price of $2.75/lb for a year would produce pre-tax EPS of 2.36p, i.e. a P/E of 0.33...

Untaxing...

Like ATYM it is a pure copper play...I am up to my ears in gold/silver/platinum plays like HOC, FRES, GPM, HOC, SML and AAU which have already more than doubled and sold half...plus GLEN of course which has more than quadrupled...

Anyhow...thank you all for your well-meaning thoughts. I appreciate them, as indeed SBT's on the WTI BB...

Cheers...

[reba] 15/2/2017 13:56

remarkomsoc

Not guilty this time

[cufes2] 15/2/2017 13:33

OT . . . Re WTI this was a big red flag from the last update for me . . .

Weatherly has previously advised that if copper prices remain at current levels it is unlikely that the Company and its subsidiaries will generate sufficient surplus cash to meet all loan repayments when due. This remains the case and the Company continues to positively engage with Orion on the subject.

[acamas] 15/2/2017 12:07

How many more weeks do we expect before judgement is released? Say 4 weeks max? Should we set St Patrick's Day as our long stop?

[head gardener] 15/2/2017 11:54

Cufe, I have traded this share, currently holding to await results from the drillbit, but I am sitting on a profit?

[acamas] 15/2/2017 11:27

Is there also the risk of more shares being issued at some date to raise funds?