Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 21/4/2017 08:10

That's quite a rebound and of course the Gap filled - now why didn't we buy this time yesterday?

[discodave4] 21/4/2017 00:03

(ShareCast News) - Equipment rental firm Ashtead retreated after results from US peer United Rentals showed rental rates were under pressure in the first quarter. United's operating profits were almost 2% short of Wall Street expectations, with rental rates down 1.4% year-on-year. Encouragingly, rental volume rose 7% and a positive 2017 outlook was given. UK rival Ashtead, which generates a large proportion of revenues from its US-based Sunbelt arm, hit an all-time high last month, supported by US President Donald Trump's pledges of significant investment in infrastructure that underpin management's 2021 growth plans, while a mooted reduction in corporate tax rates would also be a positive for the US business. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets noted on Thursday that Ashtead has "considerably stronger growth momentum" from Sunbelt, continues to push up margins and has much less exposure to oil and gas and no material exposure to Canada. Jefferies said they believed the macro backdrop remained supportive for equipment rental, with the American Rental Association forecasting 4.3% 2016-20 US rental market compound annual growth, supported by Dodge's construction firm confidence index being at eight year high, with continued non-residential construction growth and sustained energy sector activity recovery. But Jefferies highlighted potential delays in US infrastructure stimulus and tax cuts, with United Rental's stock having fallen around 16% from its March high, as "expectations on timelines for changes to US corporate tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending have moderated with potential delays". With Ashtead next reporting on 13 June, with fourth quarter full year results, RBC expected a continued positive growth message alongside an announcement on a capital returns strategy - calculating there is an implied £1bn available to return "if management remain comfortable with the cycle".

[ianwwwhite] 20/4/2017 23:30

URI closed a further 5.2% down, -6.21 @ 113.24 - this might well bring more downwards pressure on AHT at commencement tomorrow.
.

[bracke] 20/4/2017 18:28

Fair volume to pull it back up but needs to do more.

Tomorrow is OPEX, let's see what that brings.

[bracke] 20/4/2017 16:20

You've 'come out' at last.

I always knew you were a closet TA'r.

[fenners66] 20/4/2017 16:07

Ok I confess, I did read your earlier stuff about lower highs and parted company with this years CGT allowance last week, looks reasonable timing now..

[bracke] 20/4/2017 10:49

Woe! Woe! and thrice Woe!.....the Ides of March are running late this year.

Being the smartass that I am (all us Gurus are after the event) the indications were there ie. two lower lows and a drop below the Daily SMA 50 and 100.

I previously posted that the share price had not made a lower low; it has today and a 'nice' chunky gap as well.

What next? If the good times are to continue and the drop today is merely an aberration it needs to at least move back above the last major swing low at 1590 and then continue up to fill the two gaps. However there is the possibility that the good times maybe delayed whilst the share price visits the Daily SMA 200 at approx 1440.

[fenners66] 20/4/2017 10:19

Those outlook figures have not formatted very well but essentially they were improving across the board, so the market focussed on softening rental rates instead of the all the rest.

Leading indicator?

Seems like they may have reduced their rates in order to boost utilisation and increase cash flow and profit ,then the market punishes us.

However it may be that AHT is the better provider and that URI had to respond like this , we shall see....

[fenners66] 20/4/2017 10:15

CEO Comments

Michael Kneeland, chief executive officer of United Rentals, said, "We were pleased with our momentum in the first quarter, particularly our 7% growth in volume and record time utilization driven by strength in our core construction markets. It was also encouraging to see positive trends in our upstream oil and gas business after the headwinds faced over the last several years. While our rental rates remained under some pressure, they continue to support our reaffirmed standalone 2017 guidance for total revenue, adjusted EBITDA and capital spending, and our increased guidance for free cash flow."

Kneeland continued, "As we enter the critical part of the construction season, we’re very encouraged by the continued strength of key leading indicators, the tone of conversations with our customers and the industry’s disciplined response in adding fleet. Our focus remains on implementation of Project XL and other initiatives that should enhance our long-term value. With the integration of NES now underway, our updated guidance reflects the combined operations across the remainder of 2017, as well as our sustained confidence in the cycle."

2017 Outlook

The company has issued the following new full-year guidance following the acquisition of NES Rentals on April 3, 2017:

Prior Outlook Current Outlook
Total revenue $5.75 billion to $5.95 billion $6.05 billion to $6.25 billion
Adjusted EBITDA4 $2.7 billion to $2.85 billion $2.835 billion to $2.985 billion

Net rental capital expenditures after gross
purchases


$900 million to $1.05 billion, after
gross purchases of $1.4 billion to $1.5
billion


$925 million to $1.075 billion, after
gross purchases of $1.45 billion to
$1.55 billion
Net cash provided by operating activities $1.675 billion to $1.875 billion $1.85 billion to $2.05 billion
Free cash flow $650 million to $750 million $800 million to $900 million

[2flatpack] 20/4/2017 09:33

Disco
Not a clue.
Hoping we are back to the old cycle of peaking at results and falling back to the 150 or 200 day SMA in between.
Cheers

[discodave4] 20/4/2017 09:17

2flatURI - According to broker forecasts consensus was eps $1.55, they beat this by 5% @ $1.63.Looks like we may stay around this level now until the yanks open, any thoughts on likely movement then?.DD

[2flatpack] 20/4/2017 09:09

Oh happy days.

[discodave4] 20/4/2017 09:02

Thanks fenner.URI after hours trading last evening share price down 6.3%, explains the gap down this morning.

[fenners66] 20/4/2017 09:00

Utilisation at a record 66%....
whereas over at AHT

Average nine month physical utilisation was 72% (2016: 72%).

[fenners66] 20/4/2017 08:56

Raises 2017 Guidance to Reflect the Acquisition of NES Rentals

United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE:URI) today announced financial results for the first quarter 2017. Total revenue was $1.356 billion and rental revenue was $1.166 billion for the first quarter, compared with $1.310 billion and $1.117 billion, respectively, for the same period last year. On a GAAP basis, the company reported first quarter net income of $109 million, or $1.27 per diluted share, compared with $92 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, for the same period last year.

Adjusted EPS1 for the quarter was $1.63 per diluted share, compared with $1.40 per diluted share for the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA1 was $591 million and adjusted EBITDA margin1 was 43.6%, reflecting an increase of $7 million and a decrease of 100 basis points, respectively, from the same period last year.

First Quarter 2017 Highlights

Rental revenue (which includes owned equipment rental revenue, re-rent revenue and ancillary items) increased 4.4% year-over-year. Within rental revenue, owned equipment rental revenue increased 3.8% year-over-year, reflecting an increase of 7.0% in the volume of equipment on rent partially offset by a 1.4% decrease in rental rates.
Time utilization increased 190 basis points year-over-year to 66.0%, a first quarter record for the company.
The company’s Trench, Power and Pump specialty segment's rental revenue increased by almost 17% year-over-year, primarily on a same store basis, while the segment’s rental gross margin improved by 240 basis points to 44.4%.
The company generated $106 million of proceeds from used equipment sales at a GAAP gross margin of 43.4% and an adjusted gross margin of 50.9%, compared with $115 million at a GAAP gross margin of 40.9% and an adjusted gross margin of 48.7% for the same period last year.2
The company generated $623 million of net cash provided by operating activities and $490 million of free cash flow3, compared with $604 million and $627 million, respectively, for the same period last year. Net rental capital expenditures were $113 million, compared with net proceeds of $15 million for the same period last year.

_______________

[discodave4] 20/4/2017 08:55

SlogsweepNot this morning, only down 0.3%. More likely to be URI affect and as usual market overreacting.DD

[slogsweep] 20/4/2017 08:48

Currency effect 80% of earning in Dollars - Dollar down 3% vs £ therefore share price down 3%

[2flatpack] 20/4/2017 08:42

URI Q1 EBITA miss BY 1.5% acc to Jefferies. Rental rates remain under pressure.
Cheers

[2flatpack] 20/4/2017 08:34

What the hell is happening ?
Down to the 150 day SMA no time to think pulled all my pennies together and tried to buy at the low.
Once again it was 15.60 before I could buy.
Managed a small bet at 1.40.
Must be getting near the intervention for the share buy back.
As always I live in hope.
Cheers

[discodave4] 20/4/2017 08:33

Dunno......top up time!.

[fenners66] 20/4/2017 08:29

WTF! Opening gap down, why?

[discodave4] 18/4/2017 21:16

Thanks bracke.DOW not looking as bad as the FTSE!.DD

[palwing13] 18/4/2017 15:48

Thanks Bracke....appreciated.