Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[bracke] 04/3/2017 12:38

Good day ian

"I am thinking of starting an 'I was nearly a AHT millionaire' club!"
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Please don't. It would be too painful.

[ianwwwhite] 04/3/2017 11:22

Good morning kilgallp,

My apologies, I have now added you to the 'roll of honour' in my post! I am sure there will be others.

Clarky5150 made a similar comment about missed AHT opportunities, I am thinking of starting an 'I was nearly a AHT millionaire' club! I stayed in, but would have made real money if 'hindsight trading' had been invented! Nevertheless, I am content with what AHT has returned, and it's been an interesting journey. :-)

C'est la vie!

[kilgallp] 04/3/2017 10:17

I too go back to the days of 'financial irregularities', but sorry to say I sold out with a sizeable loss. At the time I thought, 'I'll not touch them again', but I'm pleased to say I eventually succumbed. Boy would I be in a good place had I not jumped ship!

[discodave4] 03/3/2017 19:48

Thanks Ian.Who else can I ask!, besides you don't learn without asking and it's cheaper than learning by making mistakes!.Doubt I will do better but providing I hit my target/s I will be happy.This is without doubt the best board out of all the ones I frequent.........no childish snipes even when somebody declares a short position, we are all here for the same reason, so no need for stupid ramps/deramps etc.Good luck.DD

[ianwwwhite] 03/3/2017 18:59

DD4

Glad to help.

Potentially you will do far better than all of us because you are not afraid to ask questions!

Good luck!

Ian

[discodave4] 03/3/2017 18:15

Thanks Ian and Fenners for your potted investment history here over the years - blimey, didn't realise how bad the bad times were, as you say though it has come good for both of you in the end - buy and hold.Swing trading pfffttt :) only joking Bracke....do you actually hold anything long term?, sorry guys for being so curious, have known you a while now though! (Even if the newbie) and respect your views and vast experience (creep creep lol).DD

[ianwwwhite] 03/3/2017 16:06

Good day bracke,

Thanks, that's a lot clearer, although I had to consult investopedia ... never too old to learn, although remembering is becoming a problem!

[bracke] 03/3/2017 15:50

"What is your definition of top/bottom?"
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A major swing high or low.

[bracke] 03/3/2017 15:47

Good day ian

I had heard that saying but thought it an excuse for exiting too early.

[fenners66] 03/3/2017 12:11

No apologies needed off topic or as in this case clearly not.

I started with my holding about 2002 and originally purchased over a £1 - if I remember correctly the original US plant was purchased from BET not Rentokil.
Bought more when the price dropped - would be a whole lot better off if I had kept them all.

Considered selling them all and re-purchasing in the ISA - which would have saved me from the CGT liability ; but - I console myself - would probably have had me selling knowing there was no tax to pay, whereas with just selling parcels to get a tax free allowance this has kept me holding and riding the wave. com ci , com ca .

[ianwwwhite] 03/3/2017 09:34

Assume this applies to your good self Ian, thus would have to ask why did you sell some AHT over those twenty years?.....just curious.
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DD you have to remember that Ashtead today is a vastly different and better proposition than it was when I made my first purchase in 1997. Furthermore the share price increase has not been linear!

Briefly these are the more significant (and sometimes worrying) occurrences that I remember during the intervening period, I am sure that fenners66 (aka Ibrox), clarky5150, uppompeii, bracke, kilgallp, Palwing13, LAIRDDAVID, dcarn, rescuer, fingers xxd, and others will correct me if necessary:

• 19th Aug 1997 at 310p my initial purchase
• 4th Nov97 Script issue 1 for 1
• 2000 Acquired BET USA, an American subsidiary of Rentokil Initial plc
• 2003 Accounting irregularities in US,
• 13th Mar 2003 price fell 68% to <> 2.5p on interest payment default (cf Apr 99 high <> 229p)
• 2006 Acquired NationsRent Inc for $1bn
• 7th Mar 2009 price down to <>35.5p (owing to 2008 Credit crunch price had fallen 80%)
• Latest: 2017 Recent high 1751p

Not surprisingly as the price has risen and fallen I have both sold and bought AHT shares, but recent sales have been driven by my desire to manage risk, diversify, and balance my modest portfolio. I still have a holding.

Sale proceeds are always reinvested elsewhere, recently I have been a great fan of Fundsmith Equity Fund and Terry Smith (the new Buffett?) which has returned me 25% per annum (average) over the last three years and if sustained, using the 'rule of 72' and the power of compounding this would indicate a doubling of capital every three years! However I live in the real world, and don’t count unhatched chickens!

Finally if I have done well out of Ashtead it is not due to anything other than serendipity, but it is worth noting that the majority of my stock market investments are by way of mutual funds (Unit Trusts or OEICs), leaving trusted others to do the clever stuff.

Apologies for off topic, but question asked, question answered! (e&oe)

[discodave4] 03/3/2017 09:30

Morning 2 flat.The "see you in twenty years" was for Ian really.Agree this is cyclical and held for about 4.5 years so far, but my general mindset with AHT is that I am more than comfortable with just holding on indefinitely.Not trying to be anywhere near a TA expert, just the basics to see if it helps with shorter term trading - see how it goes......don't worry Bracke!.Apologies to our two high input and regular posters who dislike OT discussions - perhaps they will have something to contribute about Aunty Janet or Uncle Don a bit later today?.Have a good one.DD

[2flatpack] 03/3/2017 09:21

DD
As for AHT I do not intend to sell anymore and will keep holding indefinitely (well providing the fundamentals are sound and the story hasn't changed).

See you in twenty years


That sounds extreme Buffett to me.
With a cyclic stock 2 to 3 years is long term for me. Probable the most important factor though, is the board would be well past it's sell by date and I will be sat on a commode watching daytime TV ,if I'm lucky .
Have you give up your new career in TA or are you creating your own system ?
Buffett /TA you could name it after our mentor,THE DD STEEL BALLS system.
Sorry if this is too serious but we must no stray off thread.
Cheers

[discodave4] 02/3/2017 20:31

"Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years." WBAssume this applies to your good self Ian, thus would have to ask why did you sell some AHT over those twenty years?.....just curious.Have top sliced here myself and although not losing sleep over it I may well do in years to come!........IMO you can never get everyone spot on and I do try now to set different time frames for each investment depending on various factors. As for AHT I do not intend to sell anymore and will keep holding indefinitely (well providing the fundamentals are sound and the story hasn't changed).See you in twenty years.DD

[ianwwwhite] 02/3/2017 19:33

Lol!

DD Timeframe is everything! I've held some AHT for twenty years, hence the question!

[discodave4] 02/3/2017 19:06

Top is the top and bottom is the bottom! :)If the top is the bottom and the bottom is the top - then you have the chart upside down!.Only joshing :)Guess it depends on your timeframe.DD

[ianwwwhite] 02/3/2017 18:23

"when you sell a share leave something in for the next man"
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Surprised you haven't heard this old stockmarket saying before, bracke, but you are right, the aim is not to leave a profit behind, but to console yourself when you do!

I do find your TA observations very useful in trying to understand the day to day market context, and a useful adjunct to the other decision tools of company performance, outlook and portfolio risk.

Keep up the good work!

[bracke] 02/3/2017 17:31

"when you sell a share leave something in for the next man"
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Nuts to that!

I aim to leave nothing but of course I do.

If you exit long/short within 10% of the top/bottom you'r doing very well.

Perhaps worth considering if TA can assist with best exit?

[ianwwwhite] 02/3/2017 16:47

Well done fenners, I thought no-one would spot that one!

I used the phrase lower 'yielding' somewhat unwisely, I really meant in terms of overall return including potential capital appreciation. I think that we are on the same wavelength!

[bracke] 02/3/2017 16:33

IF...the share price is going to continue the retrace 1700 is first support zone then 1660.

[bracke] 02/3/2017 16:21

LOL fenners

Very true and with Mr Trump in the White House even more so.

[fenners66] 02/3/2017 16:15

Thanks Ian, I always try to reinvest in higher yielding stocks, transferring growth to income.

Bracke now the market never values stocks on what is but always on what it thinks will be. Its just that since what it thinks will be is guess work the guesses are subject to change with the wind and at short notice.

[ianwwwhite] 02/3/2017 15:22

fenners66, 2flatpack, bracke

Most interested to read your views regarding AHT future earnings and share price, very thought provoking
thanks...
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[ianwwwhite] 02/3/2017 15:14

Good afternoon Kilgallp

Re post 53379
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....it remains to be seen whether it was the right move. My last sale was at a little over £15, so you could argue I got it wrong...
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Timing an exit is always difficult, but I console myself with old saying "when you sell a share leave something in for the next man"

If the shares have had a good run, sell up, bank your profits, and celebrate. If the shares carry on rising, well, you've still made good money, so why worry?

Its also worth bearing in mind that if you have reinvested your proceeds in a lower yielding, but importantly a lower risk investment, then any lost potential gains are merely the cost of de-risking your investments..

Works for me!
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[ianwwwhite] 02/3/2017 15:03

Re Trumpton

.......the team will not be complete without Pugh, Pugh, Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble, Grub - as the nominations are skewered one by one, I anticipate they will be called upon imminently!
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