Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[ianwwwhite] 06/3/2017 16:35

Bracke,

I would have preferred 'amusing' to 'lethargic' myself"! :-)

[bracke] 06/3/2017 14:55

I would have preferred to have been less 'amusing' and more profitable.

I suggest the biggest possible Black Swan is Mr Trump although it may be argued that he is not a Black Swan because he is known as a probable/possible threat to the markets.

ALL HAIL TRUMP!

[ianwwwhite] 06/3/2017 14:29

Hi kilgallp,

Lol!

The list has grown a bit more than I anticipated, but I am delighted that so many AHT investors are still associated with the board in one way or another.

I have included dcarn and rescuer as well, and I am happy to add others, but will probably 'call time' at the end of the week.

Kudos to bracke who has been the mainstay of the board, and kept us going, informed, and amused!
.

[kilgallp] 06/3/2017 14:19

Hi Ian, regarding the 'roll of honour', I get the feeling it would be less work for you if you include all then delete as you discover some don't belong. :-)

[ianwwwhite] 06/3/2017 13:55

Good day fingers xxd,

Re post 53426:
Not an investor, but I have maintained a long term 'lurking' interest :-)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My apologies, fingers, I had no idea that you were a lurker', but your TA Charting contributions for the AHT board should have qualified you for automatic inclusion anyway!

My post has been updated accordingly :-)

Ian

[ianwwwhite] 06/3/2017 13:41

Hi bracke,

I fear that the results will be good, but as we have come to expect this they may still disappoint the more avaricious holders.

I suggest you put the frogs on standby, just in case!
.

[bracke] 06/3/2017 13:35

What's it to be tomorrow?

Will the prospect of the FED increasing rates be positive as the $ strengthens further against the £?

Will AHT unveil even better results?

Will the share price soar once again perhaps to 1800?

Will bracke be tempted to short a large rise?

All these and other questions will be revealed tomorrow.

[ianwwwhite] 06/3/2017 13:33

Hi bracke
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Re Post 53422: “Perhaps you should be asking the question why those who have held 'throughout' have done so. Other than because of lethargy. ie. Fundamentals, TA, etc.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I promised to respond to your question from my own experience, other long term holders may have other explanations!

* Long term holder?
Over the 20 years which I have held AHT there have been 20 buys, and 15 sells, so your assumed ‘lethargy̵7; on our part I would prefer to call ‘masterly inaction’ when it has occurred!

My AHT holding has always been part of a larger structured portfolio which includes such diverse investments as Cash Deposits, NSCs, Unit Trusts & OEICs and a few direct company share-holdings which together make up my own ‘Optimal Portfolio’.

All 35 AHT transactions have been designed to maximise profits but maintain the risk profile of the portfolio. Within these constraints I have bought in times of weakness and sold to lock in profits and reduce risk when necessary.

* Why AHT?:
Belief in company’s business model, their markets, the strong management team, and the desire to ‘run your winners, don’t sell good companies’.

It seems to me that major instances of AHT price falls, although unsettling, have been attributable in the main to ‘black swan’ factors, economic downturns or accounting fraud which do not necessarily invalidate the business proposition.

* Fundamental or Technical Analysis?
Both! My longer term AHT hold strategy has been driven by Fundamentals, but short term buys and sells have been aided by my shallow understanding of TA, supplemented by your own valuable contributions, and on occasion the equally valuable contributions of fingers xxd. Thanks to you both!

* Finally given the ‘kimono fully open’ nature of my explanation, a word of warning to the unwary reader, none of the above is intended as advice, DYOR!

Ian

[bracke] 06/3/2017 13:31

ian

"Far to tricky for me, I would never keep up! :-)"
===================================================

It's not difficult. The main thing is to stick to the trading analysis and rules which you know work and not be drawn into other trades as I stupidly did with my bete noir!

There is also the knowledge that you can stop when you want to.

[ianwwwhite] 06/3/2017 13:26

Good day bracke,

Thanks for your response to DD4's post, most interesting!

Far too tricky for me, I would never keep up! :-)

[bracke] 06/3/2017 12:49

Good day ian

"Did I miss your answer to DD4's post 53413, we are all interested to know! :-)"
================================================================================

Sorry I missed the question.

Yes I do hold shares longer term but I don't hold for years. When the share price has reached what my analysis shows to be a major swing high I sell. When it reaches what my analysis shows to be a major swing low I buy. It maybe I buy back what I have previously sold.

My trades are rarely held longer than a week. Most a few hours or days. It is possible that I hold shares but am shorting the same share price on a shorter time frame.

[bracke] 06/3/2017 12:39

Good day fenners

I've been out this morning and just got back home.

[fenners66] 06/3/2017 09:06

Bracke - large gap up on SL. this morning - I thought of you - would you be a seller now? Gap fill to come?

[lairddavid] 06/3/2017 08:11

Hi Ian, dont hold any AHT shares. I was out a long time ago ...on the fall from 280. I am practically all in on AGL but have a small playing pot for shorterm spread bets.

[fenners66] 06/3/2017 00:49

arab - By "we" I take it you mean Rangers - but I have to say I'm not a Rangers fan - it was just an easy to spell handle......

[arab3] 05/3/2017 22:47

ibrox
do you remember when we had a team ? !!

[fenners66] 05/3/2017 22:20

Juat for clarification - although I now use the Fenners tag - I am still Ibrox - just have that logged in on my phone so I dont have to log on every time - I know I said it before but since we are reminiscing...

[fingers xxd] 05/3/2017 20:41

Not an investor, but I have maintained a long term 'lurking' interest :-)

[ianwwwhite] 05/3/2017 17:53

Hi LAIRDDAVID,

Apologies, I have added you to the list in my earlier post of long serving AHT investors who have maintained an interest.

Do you still currently have a holding? I see that you have dabbled with URI recently with some success!

[ianwwwhite] 05/3/2017 17:42

Good afternoon bracke,

why those who have held throughout have done so?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Good question, can't talk for the others, but I'll give my considered answer tomorrow!

Did I miss your answer to DD4's post 53413, we are all interested to know! :-)

[lairddavid] 05/3/2017 16:45

Another old timer here. Remember meeting Hatto, Rescuer, JOHNYM and a few others for golf and a meal. Neadles to say I would have been a lot better off holding on to my stake.

[bracke] 05/3/2017 14:47

ian

Perhaps you should be asking the question why those who have held 'throughout' have done so. Other than because of lethargy. ie. Fundamentals, TA, etc.

[ianwwwhite] 04/3/2017 18:37

Palwing13

My apologies, I hadn't realised that you were one of the 'originals' but mention of Hatto gets you an automatic entry to the 'roll of honour' so I have amended my original post to include you.

The question of when to realise your gains is always a difficult one, I can but agree. Good luck!

Ian
.

[palwing13] 04/3/2017 17:51

I wouldn't have been a millionaire, but a lot better off IF I hadn't sold so soon back in the Hatto days.Bought back in at circa 900p, but now have only a fraction of my original holding. With health declining and life flying past, there comes a point when you need to decide to "deal or no deal" before it's too late to reap the rewards.Decisions, decisions.......

[ianwwwhite] 04/3/2017 14:36

Good day bracke,

Lol!!