Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[perfido] 14/12/2024 05:01

Thanks bracke, the trading view graph certainly tells a story ….

[bracke] 13/12/2024 18:38

Capitulation? If it was one would expect to see bottom feeders having a nibble (excuse the expression). There is little evidence of it. Perhaps a drop into the 40's would cause interest.

From a charting perspective the last three days of the week have been thought provoking. There were a couple of half hearted attempts to break above Tuesdays close at 5392 but they came to nothing

The first resistance zone to overcome is to close and hold above 5400.

AHT DAILY

[perfido] 13/12/2024 16:59

Another down day, but strangely quiet here..
Have we reached the point of capitulation?

[perfido] 12/12/2024 23:16

In case you missed it: Daily Mail: £24 billion blow to London as Ashtead heads to New York
By Calum Muirhead:
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“ASHTEAD has become the latest London firm to jump ship to the US.

In another setback for City, the construction-equipment-rental giant said shifting its primary stock market listing across the Atlantic would be ‘in the best interests of the business and its stakeholders’.

The FTSE 100 company - which has a stock market value of close to £25bn - said the move was likely to be completed within the next 18 months.

However, Ashtead said it plans to maintain a secondary listing in London. The company makes most of its money in the US, with the American arm accounting for 85pc of its £4.5bn of sales for the six months to October, largely through its Sunbelt Rentals brand.

The move will set off more alarm bells in London about the growing exodus of companies leaving the UK stock market.

In recent months, several high-profile names have moved away from London including betting firm Flutter, packaging giant Smurfit Kappa, building materials group CRH and plumbing outfit Ferguson.”
———;——̵2;——R12;——212;————————-
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[crookes243] 12/12/2024 18:45

I just don’t see what the advantage is with relisting. For UK holders there is a clear cost with US tax on any dividends,even in an ISA. Plus the US management will use the reduced oversight with screwing the shareholders further.
When the the vote comes,I will be voting against.

[perfido] 12/12/2024 16:54

I mentioned recently that I might be tempted to buy back into AHT after the fall in price following the recent profit warning and proposal to move its primary listing to the US.

However on reflection, given the current uncertainties well highlighted by other posters AHT is no longer a target holding for me, just too many imponderables and uncertainties for a ‘buy and hold’ investor IMHO.

Good luck to existing holders, I will continue to watch from the sidelines but might it be worth asking Brendan H for an impact assessment for those existing UK holders?
.

[disc0dave46] 12/12/2024 14:47

"I assume that existing shares will be replaced by US$ shares and can be traded thereforeon both markets?"Don't know. My point really was that I assume the primary listing share price will dictate the equivalent price of the secondary listed UK shares, thus fx will come into play for the value of UK holdings which doesn't apply now. What's the forecast for sterling v USD?.

[fenners66] 12/12/2024 14:25

First half tax saving estimate - of Trump reduces rate to 15% from 25% would be about $143m
If any of that was contingent on being listed in the US then go ahead.
Feasibly $200m a year at least back in cash - even if the PE ratios are not bothered about post
tax income for share valuation.

$200m a year cash would save $10m a year in interest....

[fenners66] 12/12/2024 14:20

"The tax charge for the period has been determined by applying the expected effective tax rates in each jurisdiction for the year as a whole, based on the tax rates in force as at 31 October 2024 of 25% in the US (2023: 25%), 26% in Canada (2023: 26%) and 25% in the UK (2023: 25%)."

[fenners66] 12/12/2024 14:17

You can buy AHT shares in the USA now - is that the same in reverse as the planned UK list ?
I assume that existing shares will be replaced by US$ shares and can be traded therefore
on both markets?

Trump from the NYSE just now on Bloomberg talking about bringing corporation tax
down to 15 % from 21%

Not looked up yet what AHT are paying on US earnings but if that reduction happens then
a boost to post tax earnings would be good.

[disc0dave46] 12/12/2024 14:05

For UK holders I'm assuming the secondary International UK listing will now be impacted by fx fluctuations (the primary being USD)?.Why did they decide to keep a UK listing?

[roguetraderuk] 12/12/2024 12:02

id add another important factor which im sure has been mentioned elsewhere is incoming trumps focus will be on american when handing out the cheques.

[fenners66] 12/12/2024 11:13

Not knocking the sizeable director buy, lets hope it was opportunistic and leads to a sustainable large % profit.

But there are arguments the US style executive pay is far too overgenerous and that the move to list in the states is being used to justify even higher exec pay.

Reward them for achievements - real ones.
No bonus just for doing their job.

Get the company profits growing strongly again.
Get dividends materially up.
Get cash piling in and paying down the debt - such as being able to have a war chest to go and
make another accretive acquisition one day - when perhaps due to a downturn , earnings have
fallen and valuations are genuinely low - rather than buying at the top of the market because you
have earnings generating cash .

And if all that gains a share price in excess of $100 then maybe they will earn a chunk....

Buffet's got over $200bln in cash earning interest. He is waiting until markets pull back and
offer genuine value before he goes shopping.
Too many companies operate for the very short term. Directors have an average tenure of
about 4 years so they want to do something with cash "now". Whereas if they ran the business
like they "owned" it they would bide their time and buy low.

[roguetraderuk] 12/12/2024 11:10

the move to us isnt as much about valuation as its on about the same fwd pe as united rentals. its more about getting on to the financial engineering train that is s&p500 membership, liquidity which supports deals and buybacks and of course c suite pay is higher there. ferguson is a couple of lengths ahead and is expected to get into the s&p at some point next year. thats the playbook for aht.

[disc0dave46] 12/12/2024 11:00

Yep but still he's bought a decent amount.

[fenners66] 12/12/2024 08:17

Obviously being paid too much ....

[mirabeau] 12/12/2024 07:02

£212k Director buy

[bracke] 11/12/2024 16:52

Well done demo. A nice quick profit.

The long lower wick suggests bottom reached. Todays gap filled.

[demo trader] 11/12/2024 16:05

Nice work bracke,
sold for time being 5322p

[bracke] 11/12/2024 13:40

Ref Post 63283

"There is one more gap to fill at 5346. Perhaps the US will deal with it when the market opens."
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It did but another this morning at 5392. EDIT NOT 5392 BUT 5378.


"The daily primary trend line has been broken Looking at the weekly chart the share price is being held at the SMA100 but don't discount a visit to the weekly primary trend line."
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A visit to the weekly primary trend line which was pierced but pulled back up and held so far acting as support. IF this support fails next is at the August low of 4882.


First port of call when the share price takes a hit...... buyback. Just bung a billion or two at it and all will be ok.


AHT DAILY




AHT WEEKLY

[bracke] 11/12/2024 13:20

And in a flash Chief of the Bottom Fishers (he hopes) swoops to buy!!

[demo trader] 11/12/2024 12:47

In at 5100p

[fenners66] 11/12/2024 11:33

But Trump likely to increase inflation, thus put back interest rate cuts before bringing in corporation tax cuts later.

[disc0dave46] 11/12/2024 11:19

Some positive news on US CPI would be nice!

[fenners66] 11/12/2024 10:56

Perhaps Bransons island needs some plant hire...