Ashtead Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 20/4/2017 08:29

WTF! Opening gap down, why?

[discodave4] 18/4/2017 21:16

Thanks bracke.DOW not looking as bad as the FTSE!.DD

[palwing13] 18/4/2017 15:48

Thanks Bracke....appreciated.

[ianwwwhite] 18/4/2017 12:30

Good day bracke

Many thanks as always for your comments
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[bracke] 18/4/2017 11:33

Good day ian

1610 looks about correct with maybe an intraday pierce to 1600. We are seeing lower highs but no lower lows. Until we do no need for alarm

Depends upon Mr Trump and how belligerent he's feeling.

[ianwwwhite] 18/4/2017 09:23

Support around 1610?

[discodave4] 14/4/2017 00:21

1667-1678?

[bracke] 13/4/2017 11:07

There's a nice gap for filling......anyone?

[bracke] 12/4/2017 17:01

Good day ian

Buyers pushing it up to 1700 then sellers step in and send it back. Comparing the volume for yesterday and today is interesting. There appears to have been a more determined effort by the sellers to close it at the candle low.

It needs a close above 1700 to show that buyers are taking control.

[ianwwwhite] 12/4/2017 16:33

Thanks bracke, interesting article and may well have implications for AHT if it results in an excess of 'tool hire' capacity across the industry.

Meanwhile AHT seems to be following a predictable pattern recently, an initial surge towards resistance just above 1700, then enthusiasm seems to drain away, and closes around 1685 by the end of the afternoon.

A game of two halves, does it indicate that buyers and sellers are evenly matched at present or is something afoot?
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[bracke] 12/4/2017 13:16

This article is mostly about residential building but still worth reading.

Click on the link and then click on the fourth one down.

[ianwwwhite] 11/4/2017 17:55

Thanks bracke,

Always interested to read you comments and views. Keep up the good work!
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[bracke] 11/4/2017 11:18

The share price has pierced the top of the down channel which is at 1700 (previous s/r) and is at the last lower intraday high. Which all means it's decision time, whether to carry on and break above 1700 to test the last lower high at 1728 or retreat.

EDIT

The share price had a peek over the 1700 'wall' but its heart wasn't in it (see the volume) today.

[discodave4] 10/4/2017 22:08

Give us a hint!

[bracke] 10/4/2017 13:02

I was trying to post a chart but not to be.

[bracke] 04/4/2017 17:03

Holding in Company

Harris Associates LP - Reduction of Indirect 703,149 from 5.08% to 4.98%.

[bracke] 04/4/2017 14:20

The share price continues to faff about at the s/r zone.

My shorting finger is becoming restless so I dipped it in hot water as a reminder.

Following the intra day high on 02 March of 1764 the share price has posted two lower highs and one lower low. Irrespective of trading/investing tactics these three price actions are negative.

[discodave4] 03/4/2017 19:03

Thanks Ian.Still non the wiser as to your interpretation of "real value", so as you say, will forget it!.All the best anyway.DD

[ianwwwhite] 03/4/2017 16:05

Bracke,

Lol!!
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[bracke] 03/4/2017 15:44

ian

My understanding is that AHT does little residential business but it does appear to receive 'reflected benefit' from residential data.

Rather like the Army don't volunteer, so goeth negative comments about 'precious'. Having made that comment the reaction on this thread is very mild. Elsewhere it does become vitriolic even to threats. I was going to offer (for a price) details of fenners location to the BOD fraternity but thought better of it.....fenners may decide to visit me.

[ianwwwhite] 03/4/2017 15:26

Hi bracke,

Well at least I know you read my posts!

Thanks for the link, I believe I am right in saying that 'residential' was deemed not to impact AHTs performance in the past, although I stand to be corrected.

I won't venture an opinion on AHT price, I keep ending up with 500 word essays as punishment!

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[ianwwwhite] 03/4/2017 15:02

Good afternoon bracke
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One has to be very careful not to confuse thinking with opinion. Opinion is pointless unless it is based on evidence. I 'think' that I would not buy or sell AHT until it deals with the s/r it is currently resting on.

"Real value" is an imprecise measure. Perhaps if you expressed it in a numerical form ie. PE or whichever metric you prefer it would calm the natives.
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Thanks for your views regarding AHT's price prospects, much appreciated.

In addition I have answered DDs question on 'real value', but I'm not taking any more questions. If you persist, I'll get him asking you to explain 'Andrews Pitchfork' again!
:-)
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[ianwwwhite] 03/4/2017 14:54

DD4
No offence, but would you kindly expand on your comments in terms of what constitutes "real value" here. You keep posting the same but aren't supporting your views.
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Real Value = Fair market value minus current share price

Where fair market value is the price that a buyer would expect to pay to purchase an asset.

If you look back for example over the last two years, Ashtead’s price has tended to overshoot or undershoot what a buyer might consider a reasonable price. When such pricing anomalies occur, so does an opportunity.

For example in the last two years these are some approximate prices:
2015 Price points: Jan 1150, Aug 890, Dec 1120
I bought Jul @ 938, subsequently sold at a reasonable profit.

2016 Price points: Jan 1120, Mar 782, Dec 1570
I bought Jan @ 900, and Mar @ 822, subsequently sold at a reasonable profit.

The trick is work out what you consider ‘fair value’ and this can be a mixture of fundamental analysis, market sentiment, geopolitical events and perish the thought, gut instinct. A little basic technical analysis can help with timing, hence my interest in bracke’s work.

Finally you have asked if I hold, and the answer is yes as core holding in my portfolio. This I do not trade, hence I have two dogs in the fight, my core holding, and the odd speculative, short term purchase.

I imagine some of the other AHT aficionados are groaning at the sight of another lengthy post from me, so I suggest that we now close this topic, and for my part I propose to keep my own counsel, and not post anything further which might disturb the harmony of the AHT board.

I hope this helps.
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