Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[volvo] 15/1/2021 14:31

Following the pre close trading statement on Tuesday this week, the 2 house brokers updated their forecasts, if you talk to the nice lady Ms Knowles Investor Relations Vectura she will fill you in.

[polaris] 15/1/2021 12:52

Available forecasts are here:



consensus is 5.7 p on revenues of £177.43 M for 2020 from 6 brokers.

Let's assume this matches the board expectations. Trading update says ahead of this, so a minimum of 6 p.

With a P/E of 15 then you have 90 p plus the direct cash pile and litigation.

£80 M is about 13.5 p
GSK cash owed is worth about 20 p

Gives a base price in the region of 120-125 p, not far from the actual share price

2021 will have revenues in excess of £200 M, due to the one-offs. Not much long term impact on EPS so just add the extra cash value to the share price Could be as much as 6 p

If generic Advair is a success then it can add up to 25 p on the price in the short term.

Add it together...

current share price around 120-125 p

Target for year-end 2021 around 150-160 p.

[volvo] 15/1/2021 10:57

Some time over the next 2 weeks a payment of $164m will paid by GSK into the VEC bank account, surely a market update that its arrived.

[kiwi2007] 15/1/2021 10:04

Potential head and shoulders forming? Back to 110p maybe?

Even if it does the long term chart formation would still be positive IMO.

[volvo] 15/1/2021 09:46

alord try [e-mail]

[a1ord53] 14/1/2021 16:42

Volvo, please update what brokers did upgrade Vectura and what recommendations and what PT they set .
I just checked analysts recommendations on Refinitiv and no any new ratings and PT since July 2020.
Thanks a lot in advance .

Nothing heard back from you Volvo yet!
Please, advise.
Thx.

PS Anybody did listen to JPM conference presentation of Vectura? They mentioned Elipta , that all is well with their development with Hikma.On cdmo deals they couldn’t provide any visibility and duration of their cdmo contracts.Not impressive! They also didn’t answer question ‘“what they will do with so much cash” and only mentioned that they paid in last years special divi and did buy backs.

[volvo] 14/1/2021 16:25

Going for three on the trot.

Both house brokers have issued updated notes following the trading update on Tuesday with strong buys!

You never know

[volvo] 14/1/2021 16:12

Imagine we lost the court case with GSK and Advair was turned down again by the FDA....where would the share price be now? Not far off where we are now, similar price to 2018.

They are not factored in, neither is Ellipta generic approval, admittedly some way of, but defiantly needs a value.

I'm hearing special divi when its clear that GSK won't appeal (or put a bid in)

[volvo] 14/1/2021 11:56

...don't forget our 15pc of Hikma's US Advair sales, thats new revenue which will reoccur and grow....and as you know they are targeting $200m.

Hikma trading update 25th Feb will indicate how launch is going.

That and confirmation of the GSK money followed by March results should get the company on the front foot.

[polaris] 14/1/2021 10:48

2021 is going to be a hard year to rate VEC. I make it that non-recurring revenues for the year will really pump up the numbers. We should get around £21 M for the remaining GSK IP from the litigation and £23.5 M from the Exparel final milestone. On the flip side, the £9 M from legacy SKP IP will not be present.

The management have 2021 to get the CDMO set-up firing. After that, it will be clear almost all of the revenues are from legacy products. However, if they are raking in the revenues then i won't mind that much for a couple of years!

[volvo] 13/1/2021 16:28

Ace ok cash no good in your opinion, how about steady income and new Advair revenue? Still no good, ok how about generic Ellipta....not the worst place to be atm.....still fancy GSK

[aceuk] 13/1/2021 16:14

Market doesn’t care much for cash, cares more for ideas as to what to do with it.

I haven't bothered much about my holding here because it came from the disaster that was Skepharma which I think leaves me mentally pretty neutral. There is nothing I have seen that would lead me to think, never mind believe, the management of this company has much idea. I continue to think Skyepharma shareholders got a very poor deal.

[volvo] 13/1/2021 15:49

By the end of January the bank balance here will be £210m....that in itself will shine the spotlight here...with a market cap of £720m.

[richtea2517] 13/1/2021 13:15

Yep like the idea of a trickle down to shake the weak

[a1ord53] 13/1/2021 13:15

Volvo, no one analyst issued any recommendation yet !
Vectura without upbeat thinking and growth strategy imo overvalued !
Short sellers enjoying again the ride !

[volvo] 13/1/2021 13:06

lol alord chill abit.

I like this price action, it is not as one sided as you are assuming.

Picked up trading stock on CFD at 119p, this company has value and someone will be interested with the cash on the books.

[westofengland] 13/1/2021 13:02

First of all, here's hoping Poor Old Boy is in OK health.

Secondly, it would be nice if one of the executive directors bought some shares. If I was working for this business, I'd have a few just as a gesture. I don't see the executive directors, or the Board, stepping up.

[diesel] 13/1/2021 12:35

I thought this was dry January!

[a1ord53] 13/1/2021 11:56

Volvo !
All Gain we had last months thanks to previous management being disappearing.
Loosing this because new management and their strategy.
Don’t forget that divi and buy backs came from previous management.
New management being busy to cover their as...s and keep cash safe for their salaries.
Yesterday’s update was miserable !
Cash from GSK WILL BE SAFE only After 90 days since appeal court judgement , if GSK will not do petition.Otherwise we will have to wait until Supreme Court decision.
Again my concern is lack info on Elipta development.
Lack of management inspiration at all !
Major shareholders should step in ASAP !
Company should sold before current management will spend our cash !
I am very concerned about wasted time and monie by new management !
New management damaging shareholders !
10% down from so much expected highs !

[diesel] 13/1/2021 11:43

Looks like the reality of the TS has been absorbed by the market.

[fhmktg] 13/1/2021 09:06

No mention of VEC in the trial of beta interferon underway in Hull.Synairgen are the developer.If the phase II results are replicated, this looks a very important aid to reduce hospital successes.... 80% have reduced hospital stays.

[volvo] 13/1/2021 07:45

Exactly 3 years ago....and whats changed?

Advair now approved and will attack GSK aggressively in the US, oh and they need to pay us $200m, and not to mention the Ellipta generic in development.

Now or never for GSK




Tom Rees
11 JANUARY 2018 • 8:56PM
Follow
The City rumour mill moved back into full swing today following the Christmas lull, speculating that asthma inhaler maker Vectura could be in the crosshairs of pharma giant GlaxoSmithKline, looking to capitalise on its recent share price slump.

City chatter mooted that GSK is preparing to deliver a knockout bid in excess of 175p per share, which would value the company at close to £1.2bn.

Vectura has become vulnerable to a swoop after its share price tumbled 14pc last year and traders have speculated that GSK could be the first to launch an opportunistic bid.

One analyst noted that Vectura’s smart inhaler technology could prove alluring for GSK but added that a move would be a step change as new boss Emma Walmsley attempts to put her stamp on the company.

Vectura’s strategy shift towards partnerships elicited a tepid response from shareholders last week and the company was highlighted by City analysts as one of a handful of mid-cap pharma stocks that are sitting ducks for takeover action. Its shares have been put under pressure by its dispute with US regulators over receiving approval to launch a generic copy of GSK’s Advair drug, as generic drugs snap up more market share.

A final decision is expected from the US Food and Drug Administration during the first quarter of this year. Vectura’s shares were still under the cosh from the looming verdict on Thursday, finishing up 0.5p at 113.9p.

[justiceforthemany] 12/1/2021 22:46

Strange that they have not even hinted at what they plan to do with the war chest. Perhaps a deal is brewing in the background? M&A?

[volvo] 12/1/2021 16:58

£80m in cash now, Advair payment £8m, £132m from GSK after tax, £24m Exparel....thats £244m in the bank 2021.

[a1ord53] 12/1/2021 16:25

Dear Polaris, if possible , please comment why cash piles are lower than expected despite a lot of cash payments to Vectura.
Did management over spend company cash for new positions and their salaries ?