Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[dp1umb] 05/1/2021 09:09

Joe I don’t think Vectura would have released the statement
“GLAXO WILL NOT APPEAL” without good reason.

[popper joe] 05/1/2021 00:24

The above Morning Star article is inaccurate. It gives the impression that following Vectura's 2019 Jury-trial victory, GSK had the option to appeal but had chosen not to. Most people on this board will know that that is incorrect and the article totally ignores the fact that GSK did appeal in 2020 and were unsuccessful.

In addition to the above, the article is also wrong in its statement that Vectura had confirmed that "GlaxoSmithKline PLC WILL NOT appeal the award of damages". In fact, in their press release on 29th December 2020, Vectura confirmed that "GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) HAS NOT sought to petition the US Court of Appeals for a re-hearing".

There is a marked difference between the terms "will not" and "has not", especially so when the statement also contains the line "GSK may petition the US Supreme Court to review the decision".

Accordingly, here is the timescale for petitioning an appeal to the Supreme Court, taken from The Rules Of The Supreme Court Of The United States.

"Rule 13. Review on Certiorari: Time for Petitioning
1. Unless otherwise provided by law, a petition for a writ
of certiorari to review a judgment in any case, civil or criminal, entered by a state court of last resort or a United States
court of appeals (including the United States Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces) is timely when it is fled with
the Clerk of this Court within 90 days after entry of the
judgment."



A more reader-friendly version of this information is here, but may be behind a pay wall.




So the timescale for GSK to appeal to the Supreme Court, if they feel inclined, is 90 days from 19th November, which was the judgement date.

[letsmakesome] 04/1/2021 22:29

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1609243481019294500/vectura-says-glaxo-will-not-appeal-award-in-ellipta-litigation.aspx

[sydney4] 04/1/2021 18:14

Still vague about the appeals process. Vectura says no appeal lodged with the appeal court but then says GSK can still go to Supreme Court albeit having paid over the money. At what point is that payment absolute ie is there a time frame for one last petition. Or did GSK’s confirmation refer to that.

[porthyc] 04/1/2021 16:34

They confirmed on 30th, no appeal and money in January

[danwaits] 31/12/2020 20:19

Happy New Year Polaris and to all holders with sincere thanks for all of your informative and generous posts.

[polaris] 31/12/2020 12:12

Something i missed in the notes for the H1 figures

GSK patent enforcement

As at 30 June 2020, potential assets estimated to be $147.4m (30 June 2019: nil) are not recognised in the interim financial statements, but are disclosed as contingent as the existence of these assets is dependent on the outcome of legal proceeding in the US.

In the May 2019 jury trial in the US, the Group's US patent was found not invalid and infringed by GlaxoSmithKline's US sales of three Ellipta® products. The jury awarded Vectura $89.7m in damages for the period from August 2016 through to December 2018, based on 3% of US sales of these products. The jury also found that GSK's infringement was wilful, following post-trial motions, the 3% royalty rate was in effect confirmed as applicable until patent expiry in mid-2021. This is calculated to be an additional $51m from January 2019 to June 2020. A further $6.7m of interest was also awarded.

There will be about another £1 Bn in sales before the patent expiry in mid 2021 from June 2020. There will also be the interest charge on the $147.4 M in H2 2020 to add. Reinforces again the likely full value to be close to $200 M pre-tax.

edit
add this to my post 10529 on breakdown of relevant product sales.

[polaris] 31/12/2020 11:45

I agree that the CDMO rebrand has yet to show anything other than small-fry deals. That has to change, and fast, if VEC are to deserve their self-proclamation. The base company will tick along due to the manufacturing and royalty revenue from Flutiform. The long term pluses for now are all legacy to the current management. There is a lot of potential but very little of it value-enhanced by the new team.

Earlier in the year i berated the company here on the fact that the website has become a glossy brochure, rather than storing/imparting anything of value. What happened to all the development information? The H1 figures were less clear than the previous ones in their presentation and content.

My attempts to ask questions to IR about certain public domain information was met with stone-walling...i've still to understand why the original deal with Pacira included a milestone for approval in the EU but only the $32 M milestone remains in place as non-time constrained. It was all in the US filing, which is public domain. There was also a line about other IP that seems to have fallen by the wayside.

What is happening with the Ellipta generic(s)? Which lines are under development? Breo/Relvar for sure but what about the others? Trelegy? Anoro? Arnuity? Incruse? In the longer term, Trelegy is clearly necessary. Arnuity is probably going to be discontinued. Anoro and Incruse are both viable. What are the plans for RoW on this development? 45 % of sales in the series are non US.

What is happening with VR2081? What is the timescale for the necessary clinical trials? When will VR2081 be submitted to the FDA? That's generic Symbicort in the US, already launched in the EU by partner Sandoz, as AirBuFo Forspiro.

These product lines both have the potential to be very big news and business for VEC, yet its all gone rather quiet. The H1 results stated the bulk of the R&D was on the two development projects so what is happening? I know a lot about VEC from over the years. I feel that any new investors have little or no real information to go on.

Generic Advair in the US is another pre-current management product...that took and age to be approved. There is at least value there, much more than i expected a year ago. That was post Mylan generic approval but pre-Sandoz pulling out. I expected VEC/Hikma to end up as 4th to US market and for the value to be minimal. As third, with Sandoz now discontinued development, there is a reasonable chance that royalties can reach £10 M p.a. GSK reported US revenues from Advair at £361 M for 9 months in 2020 to date (so close to £500 M annually) cf. £502 M in 2019 and a little over £1 Bn in 2018 for FY sales. That's well down on the 2017 numbers but shows the market is still a size that justifies another generic.

By end Q1 2021, VEC will be very cash rich. It's time for the new management to step up and do something to justify their salaries, show leadership and move VEC forward.

[diesel] 31/12/2020 11:09

The key to Vecs future and the strength and vision of the management is what they do with the cash pile. A one off divvi, another buyback programme, or maybe the announcement of a yearly dividend programme. Or they could look to beef up they’re skilled R&D personnel and facilities, and maybe look to acquisitions to bolster offerings.
My fear, is that the CEO came here and saw a comfortable operation, ticking along nicely with some near term rewards, GSK, Advair and Pacira, then brought in couple of buddies from his previous company, created VP positions, drew up an attractive incentive plan, then wait for the payout.
Happy to be proved wrong, but I’ll be moving on when those three items are fully reflected in the sp, unless I see evidence of initiatives from the BOD.

[base7] 30/12/2020 23:33

I take your point but Vec have never been acompany who ramped our prospects & have always been presented very conservatively , which is why I consider our subtle description of ourselves as "industry leading" to be very bullish & trading update expected early next month will hopefully elaborate on how our new division is progressing & expected to progress in 2021

[base7] 30/12/2020 23:33

I take your point but Vec have never been acompany who ramped our prospects & have always been presented very conservatively , which is why I consider our subtle description of ourselves as "industry leading" to be very bullish & trading update expected early next month will hopefully elaborate on how our new division is progressing & expected to progress in 2021

[diesel] 30/12/2020 19:13

Tend to agree Alex, the main recent news ,Advair approval and GSK litigation were underway prior to the new management team. They have found partners for two of Ventura’s shelved candidates, one with a start up company whose only product is Vecturas, and one with a tiny company where the CEO was on Ventura’s board and had to step down. Maybe they’ll come good but the benefits of adding two VP’s to the board are yet to look value enhancing.

[volvo] 30/12/2020 09:03

Been great news flow for the last month with everything hoped for coming through.

Now, we have the new vision to talk about in the upcoming trading statement, new people, new state of the art lab facilities finished in Chippenham and soon to be bundles of cash to the tune of £250m on the books.

....and of course the spectacle of GSK handing over the lolly at the end of Jan, or deciding to make a bid :)

[alexchry] 30/12/2020 08:35

I hear them talk the talk but I have yet to see them walk the walk. It would be reassuring to hear that they have won a major contract for CDMO as well as hearing about their new facilities and the refocusing of the company.

[base7] 30/12/2020 08:06

Very interesting that ,as a company currently valued at bout $1bill with cash of around $300mill , we describe ourselves in todays RNS as an "industry leading specialist inhalation CDMO " .I appreciate that this is the aspiration but to describe ourselves in that way suggests great confidence that we are on track to become that & consequently generate the revenues & profits which may be expected from a company describing itself in that way.
Our prospects are more positive now than at any time since the SKP acquisition & there must be a fair chance of our share price outperforming The Market next year & rising towards 200p without any takeover talk & after years of underperformance I hope we remain independent for long enough to achieve our ambitions & provide a decent return for those of us acquired via SKP ( although I have since bought more Vec shares)

[volvo] 30/12/2020 07:47

Lol obviously the name of day.

Both Jeanne's look strong additions.

Re Elsa and broker coverage, the company will be putting out a trading update in the coming weeks and at that stage they will have briefings with brokers, so new updates to follow soon.

[richtea2517] 30/12/2020 07:15

If your name is Jeanne you're in with a shout. ;)

[porthyc] 30/12/2020 00:02

Hi Elsa
Numis target when GSK appeal was still unknown was 145 and bull case 290 which they said was becoming increasingly underpinned due to early Hikma deal and GSK win

[justiceforthemany] 29/12/2020 17:03

From experience a bid happens when no one is expecting it. This may be different. share price is vastly undervalued and being held back.

[best1467] 29/12/2020 16:53

Reading between the lines as the Hikima Elipta Generics been put on hold awaiting the FDA decision on Adviar it sounds like the green light as now been given.
Another reason for the GSK then Hikima Counter bid it must be a strong possibility

[boadicea] 29/12/2020 16:17

VEC need a positive strategy to ensure their survival on an equitable basis rather than being subsumed into a goliath. Given their attractive dowry they should be able to tempt a similar sized suitor of their choice - or at least they could try to! I would be prepared to forgo the immediate rewards of being swallowed up for the opportunities afforded by a constructive engagement resulting in the pospects of dynamic future growth.

[diesel] 29/12/2020 16:10

I think the value here is with the lessons learnt for the development and approval of the Eliptica generics, that’s the real biggy!

[volvo] 29/12/2020 15:37

Just dont see GSK meekly handed over $200m without first seriously considering taking VEC out.