Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[volvo] 12/1/2021 15:47

Great volume day, every sell is a buy and every buy is a sell, so the moving of the guard, like it.

It will settle in a few days, plenty of cash in the bank, £250m odd with all payments due, and a steady revenue stream makes VEC a nice morsel for someone.

Value here imo

[jimboyce] 12/1/2021 15:22

Have to say I am a bit disappointed at the reaction to the T/U.Expected more of a tick up of the share price, based on its positive feel.Will see what the brokers/ commentators have to say.

[a1ord53] 12/1/2021 14:44

Without Elipta or similar no way up !
Cdmo is downgrade for company and hope W.Downie will fired soon by major shareholders with all his new employees !
He is not industry leader, his business looks like wheeler dealer ! Klein karriert !

[polaris] 12/1/2021 11:46

@diesel - As royalty revenue will arrive in the Q following sales, the question is whether the production and stocking of VR315 pre-launch will be included in FY2020. My assumption, given the statement, is now yes. The $11 M was always planned in H2 2020, but maybe not much on the royalty side. I can't believe it is the approval itself that makes them ahead of expectations, unless other areas outperformed and the minor CRL was such that internal expectation was that approval would not come until early 2021, leading to in line original expectations. Again, that can only be resolved by looking at the audited FY2020 figures...roll on early March.

The JPM presentation that i linked to previously on Thursday might give some further insight into the strategy switch. We can but hope!

[diesel] 12/1/2021 11:39

Polaris, re my 10896, what do you make of the statement ‘ahead of expectations following the Advair approval’ .

[polaris] 12/1/2021 11:29

Looks like we will have to wait until March for the actual results for further information.

I am surprised that the Flutiform product revenues will be so much lower than 2020, despite the comment on conservative stocking. I was expecting something closer to £100 M, though the assumption is that the royalty part of the revenue stream isn't in the estimate given today and that should be in the region of £9 M.

2021 H1 will benefit from the GSK royalties on Ellipta sales as a result of the litigation. However, that will disappear after Q3 2021 so the H1 will be somewhat distorted in terms of performance.

The cash pile was much lower than expected - only £79 M. Again, i was expecting something closer to £90 M, with the milestone payments and expectations for R&D. There will be a lot of sifting to be done on the FY2020 figures when released.

CDMO is a lot of deals, not much in the way of revenues...at least for now. As some of these move forward then there will be opportunities for long term revenue generation. However, it will take time. Thankfully, VEC have their stable of products that will cover this period. I'm still firmly of the opinion that the CDMO strategy has a lot to prove!

QVM149 is on the market, as is the generic Symbicort in the EU, plus the generic Advair just launched. On the downside, the £9 M from Ellipta from SKP IP will not recur in 2021, AFAIK. This was flagged for 2020 too but H1 2020 had the maximum £9 M recognised, so my assumption is that the IP lapsed in H2 2020.

There will be a RNS when the GSK $164 M arrives later in January. That covers up to end Q3 2020 and so rest of revenues will just be on sales (no interest etc). I'll post the GSK relevant sales as and when they are announced. It'll be fairly easy now to follow the expected revenues from Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, just a case of exactly when the IP lapses in mid year 2021 as to whether we get a full Q2 and some Q3 sales as well.

Ahead of management expectations doesn't mean much when no-one really knows what the management expectations were in the first place. We've not had guidance from them on revenues and EBITDA, just the ranges from the analysts. I do wonder how much more there will be in non-cash write-offs in FY2020?

Overall, steady trading update, nothing too exciting right now.

[volvo] 12/1/2021 11:11

Plenty of sales today and the market has soaked them up.

POB your 150p target is not far away short term imo.

Just the sort of stock FT250 investors like atm, super cash rich and no debt, steady underlying business which is certainly going to grow next year with Advair revenue, and talking up a exciting future

Lets see how it settles.

base7 definitely agree re takeover target and hive off the assets

[pooroldboy55] 12/1/2021 10:22

Hi diesel
I'm in the same position as you via SKP like you have sold down over the years only 30000 left my plan is to sell at 150p. just a question if I last that long .

all the best POB

[base7] 12/1/2021 10:14

I too have held for years ( via SKP) & have added Vec at lower levels.Withdrawing from Switzerland sounds pragmatic & will save costs ,CDMO revenue of £10mill this year is a decent achievement from a standing start but it is our prospective revenues in 2022 & 2023 & beyond which will determine the success of that project & clearly the majority of our income & revenue continues to arise from our legacy products.I suspect that news regarding Ellipta will come first from HIK as the lead partner in that project & hopefully it will be soon forthcoming.Assuming GSK dont appeal to the Supreme Court we will have £200mill + cash & our final Exparel $32mill milestone towards the end of the year & it will be interesting to see what our Board decide to do with it.
Once it becomes 100% clear that GSK wont appeal we must be a takeover target,notwithstanding the complexities of our various contracts & collaborations, & could, at our current value be easily assets stripped to generate valuew,eg I am sure Hik would be interested in owning 100% of Advair & Ellipta, which could save them $100mill in royalties .
I would like to see Will & PDMRS buying decent amounts of shares with their own tax paid capital ( as we have all done ) as a sign of their commitment to Vec & belief in their strategy.

[best1467] 12/1/2021 10:12

Does anyone know what if anything as been achieved in 18 months or so since the Ellipta generic program wa announced because it is constantly missing from the last number of updates Disappointing

[diesel] 12/1/2021 10:10

Alex, similar here..my reality check is always, if I wasn’t invested already would I be looking to buy?

[alexchry] 12/1/2021 10:01

pob55-I am worried, too, as it seems to me that the bulk of the income comes from products and contracts put in place many years ago, well before the current management team were put in place. I think it is too early to judge whether CDMO is the right way to go and Ellipta generic is on the horizon so I will continue to hold, not easy to sell after holding for 16 years.

[diesel] 12/1/2021 09:59

POB..I have been reducing, I have a large stake here starting way back in the early SKP days and adding when opportunities arose like in the spike down last Mar.
Primarily been holding on for the potential litigation spike which I think we can now see, Trying to asses the new management but so far talk and actions don’t seem to match the facts.
The real value driver here is the Eliptica generic and it would be good to have an update sometime, but 18 contracts and £3m revenue, is not going to impress the market.

[pooroldboy55] 12/1/2021 09:35

Diesel if your that worried sell up simple .

[diesel] 12/1/2021 09:30

Just trying to understand this statement. It reads that they are trading ahead of expectations ‘following the approval of the generic Advair’, so the $11m milestone was what made the difference? Was this not expected (forecasted)?; this statement is scant on actual trading apart from the mention of Fluti.
My worries grow stronger...

[diesel] 12/1/2021 08:45

Is that £3m new CDMO revenue recognised or total CDMO, just trying to work out whether total CDMO Rev for next year is £12m, if so this doesn’t sound significant for a company valued at £700+m.

[alexchry] 12/1/2021 08:23

Nothing much that wasn't known already and tripling of CDMO revenue does not amount to a great deal.

[a1ord53] 12/1/2021 08:07

Market doesn’t like trading update yet !
New strategy worth peanuts yet !
Generic Elipta development not updated !
Where are analysts - no recommendations since July :( - no support !
CEO doesn’t sound as a leader !
Not enthusiastic statement imo !
Nothing ahead of expectations !!!

[rogerrail] 12/1/2021 07:39

Given the change in strategy would be good if they started paying a divi.With regards to the GSK cash perhaps they could look left field and aquire Carclo the rump of which is a very profitable CTP division that in the main contract manufactures injection moulded medical delivery devices, as most would be aware CAR as a group are debt strapped.

[volvo] 12/1/2021 07:31

Decent trading statement and the markets will warm strongly to VEC over the coming months imo.

Beating current expectations - Good

Advair sales expected strong - Good

Use of the word exciting again - Good

Cash from GSK $164m first installment in January, with agreed timings for the balance (36m - to 50m imo) - Good

Would expect the brokers notes out today and target prices above 200p

Markets should like the cash rich jam today and tomorrow story

[best1467] 12/1/2021 07:24

Disappointing no news on Elipta generic

[18bt] 12/1/2021 07:19

Strong trading update and confirmation of the GSK cashflow payments. No news on what they will do with the cash - presumably waiting on whether GSK contest the amount. That's quite a lot of CDMO contracts though not a huge turnover attached to them in 2020. Seems plenty to go fo in next few years.

[volvo] 11/1/2021 17:36

There will be a trading update this week

[polaris] 11/1/2021 16:30

Pacira Q4 Exparel sales are first to meet necessary run-rate for $500 M in rolling 12-month sales, coming in at $125.3 M (i'm not sure the $2 M in product sales for veterinary procedures count).



Should mean that VEC get the payment in Q4 2021. This before any EU launch too.