Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[fhmktg] 07/1/2021 11:27

Trading update was 13th Jan last year.

[volvo] 07/1/2021 11:19

diesel having the news of Advair and GSK both in the last month was surely a good start....now any further news re the CDMO strategy could start to form a argument for a rerating.

The brokers will be briefed and it will be interesting what conclusions they come to.

I suggest that new target price might start with a 2, and hopefully not 20p :)

[a1ord53] 07/1/2021 11:18

Volvo and co., last year preliminary results were in March :
” 17 Mar 2020
Preliminary Results for the 12 months ended 31 December 2019 “
Trading update is not in investor calendar on Vectura site.
Imo transparence is almost zero with new management and creation of so many new positions is waste of shareholders monies.
Old management deserved credit for litigations and Advair plus all current income and new management looks like parasites sitting on our funds and paying themselves huge salaries.
Major shareholders should think about this and push them to act or fire them... or put company for sale.

[alexchry] 07/1/2021 10:46

I will get excited too if they announce some major contracts. It seems that the bulk of VEC's income is from products that they have had for many years, even Advair generic is quite old. At the moment the CDMO strategy just seems like it was all the board could think of doing when new product development dried up. Unfortunately, income from the Ellipta generic is some years away and approval is not guaranteed so I do hope the new directors will make a difference and make the CDMO strategy a success.

[diesel] 07/1/2021 10:44

Volvo, what transformation? Still waiting to see some substantive evidence of the worth of this new team. Maybe a near term example is what they decide to do with the GSK monies.

[volvo] 07/1/2021 09:58

Anyone hearing when the pre close trading statement will be put out?

I'm being pointed towards this coming Monday 11th Jan.

Will be nice to hear how the transformation is taking place. See the new two Jeanne's both highlighted joining VEC at this exciting time and being excited. Hopefully all this excitement can be filtered down to the share price.

[polaris] 06/1/2021 15:34

That's called front-loaded stocking, necessary for a new product to market. Wholesalers need to have a good level of stock. As the sales come in over the following months, the stock levels necessary to match demand will become clearer and so the run-rate will change. That is why i used run-rate and not simple sales. They are not the same thing. You will get lumpy revenues until things settle down. If they can get the generic onto the approved lists for various healthcare insurance providers then that will ease the process along.

[volvo] 06/1/2021 15:28

From the Hikma results they were expecting $40m for 4 months following Advair approval from a standing start.

Obviously approval came 4 months later than hoped.

Conjecture makes the world go round, and we will have to revisit this when Hikma release the sales number end of 2021, but I do know they have v high expectations

[polaris] 06/1/2021 15:26

$200 M for generic Advair, $220 M+ for GSK litigation...yes, i see that you do have a habit of inflating numbers. It just means that you come across as a bit 'rampy'.

[volvo] 06/1/2021 15:23

lol my figures are the only one that matter to me!

[polaris] 06/1/2021 15:17

Volvo - those are your assumptions. They are very aggressive and highly unlikely to come to pass. If Hikma get to a run rate of $100 M in a 9-12 month timeline, they will be doing well. By that i mean reach a $10 M sales per month by end of 2021. It's not going to happen overnight, due to the way the US healthcare and insurance system works.

[volvo] 06/1/2021 15:11

diesel aren't the markets meant to work in advance?

So early predictions of Advair sales from Hikma were about $200m per annum, $30m per annum for VEC.

Obviously confirmation required but assumption is allowed.

Add that to the $200m bonus from GSK, and the new contracts filtering down, 150p should here imo and the new broker notes will go into detail imo.

I'm confident the next update due any day, probably either tomorrow or next week will try and spell out the bright exciting new future

[diesel] 06/1/2021 14:34

I pencilled in about 25-30p if they won the GSK case, I guess there is still a 10-20% risk discount on that at the mo, so about 130p should be a good base when monies confirmed. Once we see how Advair generic does then we should be able to imagine a target sp, but 180+ at the moment seems a tad optimistic. Of course if they decide on a special divvy we might see £100m taken off the cash pile.

[a1ord53] 06/1/2021 09:55

Justice... , for now no support at all !
Algorithms now u-turned from buy to sell.
Today:
Hikma is up , ftse 100,250 up and Vec down.
Vec shares were and are easy to manipulate on a way down . Market makers always trying to depress share price of Vec. Why ?

PS I spoke in December with somebody from Vectura and asked what are analysts recommendations now after appeal court judgement - answer was 180-200p.
But I couldn’t find confirmation for this PT‘s.
Highest PT I found is 134p issued back in July.

[justiceforthemany] 05/1/2021 16:06

Resistance was broken at 127-128p earlier.
Hit 131p
Next resistance around 169p

[alexchry] 05/1/2021 15:21

The market is not overly interested in past trading, future prospects are what counts. The BOD have decided that CDMO is the way to go and have staffed and provided facilities to support this change of direction so the market needs some reassurance that significant and profitable contracts will be forthcoming. News on the Ellipta generic development would be welcome as would news on how well the advair generic was being received in the USA.

[volvo] 05/1/2021 15:00

fwiw we won't have long to wait the trading statement is nearly here.

I believe VEC will sing a true upbeat tune.

New direction, new gifted employees/directors, new labs, good results already showing and an upbeat pipeline of new potential partners.

Currently trading well

Couple that trendy talk with loads of cash in the bank, Advair will be a true winner, throw in the Pacira $32m and maybe some update on Elipta.

Markets could indeed buy into that, along with some broker upgrades, bingo!

Edit, forgot to mention the outside chance that GSK take us out, rather than pay and try and stymie Elipta and Advair

[diesel] 05/1/2021 14:39

Agree Base...if we get an upbeat trading update then things look good, applies to most stocks though....

[base7] 05/1/2021 12:46

No reason for the increase in our share price to be temporary if the forthcoming trading update is up beat & exudes confidence regarding our new CDMO business + we still await an update on our Ellipta partnership with HIK.Confirmation of the amount received by GSK & a decent trading update could see our re rating continue towards 150p

[diesel] 05/1/2021 11:17

The award is almost totally derisked as is reflected in the sp, we are now in “Trump” territory with only very slim options left. I very much doubt they will be spending any more money and adverse publicity on persuing this further.
The share price is about where I would expect with the award secure, we may see another spike when the payment is confirmed but that maybe temporary.
Further growth now depends on the early signs revenue numbers for the Advair generic and progress with the triple therapy generic. The $32m from Pacira is guaranteed but maybe a year out.

[popper joe] 05/1/2021 10:49

a1ord, yes. That is precisely what I wrote, but clearly not as succincly.;-)

[sydney4] 05/1/2021 10:45

At last some light from above the chatter. So GSK have one more throw of the dice. Not without significance in any negotiation however slim the chances.

[a1ord53] 05/1/2021 09:57

Popper Joe, after lower court judgement in Delaware , GSK did appeal in Federal circuits appeal court in Washington DC and appeal court issued denial . GSK had rights to appeal this denial and ask for rehearing . But GSK DIDNT !
Now by Law GSK has to pay , but has right to do petition to Supreme Court.
Normally it will bring nothing, cause Supreme Court accept only 10% of petitions. So for GSK petition should bring nothing.

[polaris] 05/1/2021 09:54

Fully agree with you Popper Joe. The words have been misinterpreted by the media and now promulgated. GSK has not appealed the lower court decision again and so must pay up. However, that does not mean that they cannot petition a higher court, within the time-frame set down in the statutes that you very nicely posted in 10834.

All that is certain now is that GSK will have to pay the monies to VEC. There is still an outside chance they will go for the higher court, an even smaller chance that the court will accept to hear it and an even smaller chance that a hearing will lead to an overturn.

[popper joe] 05/1/2021 09:17

dp1umb, that is my point. In the RNS that Vectura released, they stated that GSK HAS NOT sought to petition an appeal. They did not say that GSK WILL NOT.