Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[cumnor] 29/12/2020 15:30

Agree, Volvo. Anything but. If the market doesn't wake up to the IP and value here a bidder will.

[volvo] 29/12/2020 15:28

elsa its not baked in watch and see where we are in 2 to 4 weeks :)

[elsa7878] 29/12/2020 15:09

Clearly the news was baked in. Need a broker note to see how they derive a valuation.

elsa787823 Dec '20 - 08:36 - 10757 of 10805
The point of forecasts is that they will incorporate elements of what is likely. So in this case the most recent Numis (House broker) forecast assumed a 90% chance that they won their case against GSK. Assuming that is the case the upside the share price should be in the order of 2p. Other brokers might have modelled it differently. Advair? No idea about timelines or anticipated sales. No doubt it was expected to be launched just a case of when. So the forecasts of 6p for 2021 are probably fairly accurate. I genuinely think this is interesting but can't fully invest without seeing some numbers.

[cumnor] 29/12/2020 13:12

This company will be taken over for £2.25-£3.00 in the near future imo. The likes of GSK and other big pharma will be looking closely at their IP and inhaler technology-worth an awful lot to them to develop themselves-aided by the steady income streams from fluticasone, advair, cash of £200ml+ and other products.
Were this a pure NASDAQ play it would be much higher but the London market-and UK IIs in particular-do not value UK tech remotely near anything the rest of the world would attribute to it.
This is partially out of ignorance of how tech works and grows-ARM is an example-but also by deliberately undervaluing tech plcs in the hope they can grab a share of the action when the time comes. US retail and II investors are much more savvy-look at how well they have done on TSLA, FB, apple atc.
Were they UK listed companies they would be nowhere near the valuations they now command-nor would they have the investment backing to be the world beaters in tech they now are.
So ignore the UK market gyrations, mm games and penny moves in companies you believe in. The City of London is way over rated as an investment hub for tech. One of my larger holdings-GAN-has 10-15 bagged in the space of three years and done very well since moving to NASDAQ, away from London.
Unless they get their act together in rewarding UK innovation then it will be no harm to see the EU steal some of the City's over rated thunder.
And I do agree with those who suggest VEC need new mgmt to capitalise on the excellent news (Advair, GSK cash) we have had of late, which has made little or no difference to the share price imo

[volvo] 29/12/2020 12:41

.....sustained seller shifting in bulk today, but every sell is matched with a buy, one in one out, once finished we will move on.

[volvo] 29/12/2020 12:36

All said 12 days ago.

Will Downie, Chief Executive Officer of Vectura, said, "This is excellent news for Vectura and for people living with asthma and COPD in the US. Approval of this high quality substitutable generic product for Advair Diskus(R) validates Vectura's rare, industry-leading development capabilities and the strong partnership we have with Hikma.

"Approval of this product paves the way for our substitutable drug-device combination programme, also partnered with Hikma, for generic versions of the GSK Ellipta(R) portfolio, in the coming years."

[polaris] 29/12/2020 12:00

SKP had something that VEC needed...marketed products. VEC technology development has mostly failed since the merger. Most of the revenues come from the ex-SKP part. However, the approval of VR315 in the US is a much needed boon to the generic development in respiratory area. FY2020 results need an update on the Ellipta generic development. That has to move forward now at as fast a pace as possible. VEC/Hikma have the cash and experience now. They just have to use it wisely. Can't see an approved generic before 2024, but the market value by then will be well over $4 Bn worldwide, about a half of that in the US.

[boadicea] 29/12/2020 11:39

With all this cash Vec would be in a good position to enter the corporate action field but for two factors. First, the Skyepharma acquisition was not a roaring success and secondly its share price still undervalues the company (imho). The latter factor means that it would not be attractive to use paper for a purchase and retain much of the cash.

A scenario which could look more optimal could be a merger with a complementary entity, especially perhaps one with common chracteristics such as multi-dimensioinal cross-industry partnerings. This could create a broad spectrum cdmo with a stronger bulwark for both parties against becoming a premature takeover victim. One or two companies spring to mind, particularly where the high cash content would be a significant asset capable of profitable application by a dynamically expanding other half.

[richman777114] 29/12/2020 11:27

yes agreed-the Supreme Court only hears a tiny %age of cases and has a dislike for big pharmanevertheless we all thought the Supreme Court appeal window closed on 19th December but the RNS implies otherwise

[polaris] 29/12/2020 11:24

Ah - i see what you mean. OK, GSK can petition the Supreme Court but must first pony up the cash based on the lower court decision(s). Somehow i doubt that will happen, as it is not a case type that the Supreme Court will touch. All costs for such an attempt will go to GSK. They are flogging the proverbial dead horse now if they move ahead...

[richman777114] 29/12/2020 11:20

as i thought in which case RNS misleading!

[polaris] 29/12/2020 11:17

nope - door now closed. Any move to higher court required petition within 30 days.

GSK will have to pony up plus the on-going royalties in 2021 until expiry of patent cover. That will impact 2021 VEC numbers, unless the settlement is projected forward too based on current sales, with a final settlement post IP lapse in H2 2020 on the difference between projected sales and actual sales during H1 2021.

[richman777114] 29/12/2020 11:16

yeah i know odds are slim but thought they only had 30 days and the deadline has passed?

[volvo] 29/12/2020 11:12

richman never ever going to happen in a case like this.

[richman777114] 29/12/2020 11:10

re RNS door to Supreme Court still open?

[volvo] 29/12/2020 11:03

.....old investors out and new ones in atm.

Market needs to digest this news and start valuing a company with £250m on its books.

Should force over 140-150p with the early trading statement in 2 weeks time.

[polaris] 29/12/2020 10:37

Now for the market to attempt to value VEC. They will not return too much of the cash to shareholders as they want to stay in the FTSE250.

VEC usually bring out a trading statement in January. hat should give some feedback on H2. I'd expect in-line to slight outperform.

[volvo] 29/12/2020 10:23

Lol Popper Joe like that and GSK must be looking at all options, and why wouldn't they, they must have run the rule over VEC ;)

[vecturaking] 29/12/2020 10:16

Looks like payout $200 million January

[popper joe] 29/12/2020 10:15

Yes, excellent news. We can now look forward to GSK paying for the development of the generic version of their Ellipta range!!! :-)

[peddlers] 29/12/2020 10:05

Good news.

[fhmktg] 29/12/2020 10:04

Trading update in mid Jan should be interesting....particularly if there is a positive brief on the generic Ellipta project.

[volvo] 29/12/2020 10:03

How many companies can show growth and a cash balance sheet of £250m, that's where VEC will be in 2021.

VOLVO 23 Dec '20 - 08:22 - 10756 of 10785

Cash breakdown, £90m existing cash, £130m from GSK (after tax), £24m from Exparel payment, £8m from Hikma last week....£252m or £250m for cash :)

[volvo] 29/12/2020 09:59

I said before Advair and its repeat income was 130p min and GSK payment takes us nearer 140p to 150p.