Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Vectura Group LSE:VEC London Ordinary Share GB00B01D1K48 ORD 0.025P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.55p +0.60% 91.80p 91.75p 92.15p 92.95p 91.25p 92.05p 918,863 16:29:59
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 126.5 -40.1 -5.3 - 623.26

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Date Time Title Posts
20/11/201717:18Vectura - An emerging Pharmaceutical Co.6,219
04/4/200619:42A winner.87
04/4/200608:05VECTURA HAS 20M AND DEVELOPS DRUGS6

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16:36:0891.8012,72811,684.30O
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Vectura (VEC) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
21/11/2017
08:20
Vectura Daily Update: Vectura Group is listed in the Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker VEC. The last closing price for Vectura was 91.25p.
Vectura Group has a 4 week average price of 86.50p and a 12 week average price of 86.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 166.90p while the 1 year low share price is currently 86.50p.
There are currently 678,929,656 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,728,163 shares. The market capitalisation of Vectura Group is £623,257,424.21.
17/11/2017
11:41
dp1umb: Diesel perversely at the moment it’s in the companies favour if the share price keeps falling.
16/11/2017
12:35
a1ord53: On 8 November JPMorgan Cazanove wrote : US Generic Advair accounts for only 6% of our Vectura NPV, 11p per share. Arguably the Vectura share- price prior to today’s announcement included very little value for this project since the CRL earlier this year. That said, we expect significant share price underperformance today, with the market disappointed that the optionality around this asset has been pushed further out. On our forecasts the stock is now (89p) trading at almost 20% discount to our base business NPV (109p), with more than 70p of pipeline optionality coming for free. Vectura Updating for US generic Advair update, launch moved to early 2020, NPV derived PT trimmed 3% to 175p June-18 PT lowered 3%/5p to 175p (180p), reflecting further US generic Advair delays, US Advair now only 4% of our NPV. Yesterday saw Vectura’s partner Hikma provide a disappointing update on US generic Advair, as described below. The negative update makes only a very modest impact on our Vectura NPV, though it does drive significant EPS downgrades in 2019-21e, and removes what could have been a positive catalyst that could have helped close some of the company’s very large NPV discount. At the current share-price (96p), the stock trades at an 11% discount to our base business valuation (108p) and a c.45% discount to our c.175p NPV derived PT, which includes risk-adjusted pipeline. Though we believe patience will be required for much of the valuation gap to close, we continue to see current levels representing an attractive entry point for longer-term investors, buying into the diversified set of on-market and pipeline respiratory cashflows.
16/11/2017
07:38
popper joe: So another 300,000 shares bought back yesterday and hardly a flicker on the price. I repeat my question of yesterday: is the aim to buy back as many shares as possible for £16m or push the share price up?
15/11/2017
10:18
stevenlondon3: a We don't know what the share price would be without the buying. b The EPS is enhanced as interest earned on cash is negligible. Regards steven
09/11/2017
10:11
cityfarmer: Suspect a BTG VEC merger may be wide of the mark that said VEC looking very vulnerable at the moment and an opportunistic overseas buyer may take advantage of our weak management, share price and weak £ to make an opportunistic bid? Personally I hope not as long term value should prevail ………;…..
27/10/2017
07:46
pooroldboy55: Looks like big down again today, what I don't understand no comments on share price from B OF DIRECTOR'S. you think when the price as almost halfed in twelve months they might say something. Back in the UK next week after 5 weeks away with the wife so no more depressing post from me till end of year. cheers POB
07/9/2017
11:56
0815exitstrategy: From the Telegraph.... Julie Simmonds, analyst at Panmure, commented that she believed the share price fall was an overreaction and said the firm would benefit from a trend towards more generic inhaler products and from further growth potential in Asia Pacific and Latin America. She added: “We see today’s fall as a good buying opportunity as the pipeline continues to progress to plan. “In our view the current share price attributes no value to the substantial and growing pipeline.”
08/9/2016
13:50
rivaldo: Peel Hunt value VEC at 200p per share (BTW this article really needed sub-editing...): http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/163605/this-unfancied-drug-stock-has-the-potential-to-soar-163605.html?utm_source=Sign-Up.to&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=7163-356640-Campaign+-+07%2F09%2F2016 "This unfancied drug stock has the potential to soar 14:38 07 Sep 2016 Peel Hunt’s Walker reckons Vectura is worth around 200p per share There is a huge opportunity for the likes Vectura and is partner Hikma Pharmaceuticals as they copy-cat GlaxoSmithKline's asthma treatment. They’ve been rewarded with an 11% rise in the share price post-results. But it has been a hard slog for investors in respiratory specialist Vectura Group PLC (LON:VEC), who have seen the stock drift by around a quarter over the last year. The reason for the decline? Well, according to analysts, there has been a degree of uncertainty around the £441mln takeover of Skyeparma, completed this summer. Earlier Vectura told the market the merger benefits would be higher than first anticipated. What followed was a relief rally; in other words, the markets concerns weren’t crystalised. So where to now for the stock? Well, according the broker Peel Hunt, the recent weakness of the share price provides an opportunity. Analyst Amy Walker says the company’s pipeline and technology platform is worth around 100p (or just over two-thirds of Vectura’s current valuation). That provides almost a “free option” on VR315, a generic version of Advair, the “mega blockbuster” asthma product developed by GlaxoSmithKline (LON:GSK). While Advair came off patent in 2010, it has remained uncontested until now because the delivery method retained patent protection. That final defence against the copy-cat producers has been eroded. In the first half Advair generated sales of £1.7bn for Europe’s largest pharma company. So there is a huge opportunity for the likes Vectura and is partner Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK). Peel Hunt’s Walker reckons Vectura is worth around 200p per share, compared to a current market price of around 145p. The consensus valuation is 206p, based on NPVs provided four other brokers and the highest of those estimates is 231p. “Vectura has suffered a significant de-rating post the Skyepharma merger and recent disappointing news flow,” said “Our detailed analysis of the assumptions baked into the share price and consensus forecasts…suggest the stock now offers a free option on VR315 (generic Advair) on both a net present value and mid-term multiples basis.”"
29/3/2016
12:20
verger: I'm confused! VEC have valued SKP as worth £x, and as it is a merger they have equated £x as a share swap ie 2.7977 VEC shares for every SKP share based on the VEC closing share price on 15/3/16 of 146.60p. If people think that SKP is worth more then the VEC share price needs to go up to reflect this. But what if people like the deal (as I do), buy into VEC pushing the share price up and making the deal more expensive for VEC? What is the timetable for this deal? Should they not suspend the shares? Or have I missed something? Advice please!
24/3/2016
12:08
soundbuy: H/T FT AV Numis The union of Vectura and Skyepharma is one of the most complementary mergers in the UK healthcare sector. It will create a £1bn+ FTSE250 UK respiratory champion with strong, globally competitive technologies and capabilities across the entire spectrum of dry powder, smart nebuliser and now metered dose inhalers, making it the partner of choice in targeting the airways and allowing it to address 60% more of the $35bn global respiratory market than Vectura did on its own. We see the merger as a strategically and financially logical step-up for Vectura, with the combined company offering critical mass and attractive growth at a good price. We re-introduce our Buy recommendation with a 12-month target of 264p. ● In this 30-page note, we look at Skyepharma in some detail, focusing on Flutiform in particular. We see the prospect of it becoming a c.$500m drug as realistic, offering Vectura shareholders a growing, lower risk cash flow to diversify its higher risk prospects (VR315 and wholly owned FAVOLIR / SCIPE assets). ● The ongoing roll-out of Flutiform is set to transform the P&L with revenues and underlying EBITDA set to approximately double and then grow at 14% and 20% CAGR respectively to end FY2021. EPS CAGR is higher, at 33%. ● We see EPS accretion of 24% in year 1 (FY2017, 7% ROI), growing to c.60% over years 2-3 (FY2018-2019, double digit ROI), then falling to single digits as VR315 royalties come through and are spread over a higher share count. ● The deal washes its face on our risk-adjusted SOTP analysis (£470m vs £460m consideration and estimated costs). ● Our risk adjusted SOTP value is 14% diluted from our previous 271p target. The potential for platform synergies are not captured in this approach, which to date has attributed no terminal value to the assets. ● Skyepharma will bring in significant near-term cash-flows to give management a multitude of options to make the leap to self-commercialisation and build lasting sustainable enterprise value. The time feels right to switch to a multiple-based valuation. ● We see the increased size, liquidity and FTSE250 listing increasing awareness of Vectura's steep forecast trajectory. A rating relative to BTG feels appropriate. Applying a P/E in line with BTG of 24.7x (vs 29% risked EPS CAGR) our risked FY2020 EPS of 16.8p (fully taxed) and discounting back, we see a multiples based valuation of 294p. We blend this with our SOTP of 234p to derive our target price of 264p, reflecting the need to complete the transition to self commercialisation. ● On our initial projected consolidated EPS forecasts, Vectura's P/E drops to single digits by year 3 (FY2019), now driven mostly by Flutiform: a strong buy signal in our view. RBC Cap Mkts. Strategic rationale: Strategically, we see the deal enhancing Vectura’s capabilities (oral, pMDI and commercial manufacturing) but think the financial rationale is the main motive for the combination. Vectura has a larger pipeline but its partnered assets have only recently launched and its financial profile still less developed than SKP’s, which has a smaller pipeline but with key assets launched and delivering profit growth (FY15A EBITDA margin of 37.5%). Combined, we see the two offering a healthy pipeline of opportunities with a strong financial profile. Turbo charged financials: We choose not to update our forecasts (or valuation) until completion of the deal and instead provide a view on the combination below and within the note. The New Co will have an implied Mcap of £1.1bn and offer a revenue, EBITDA and EPS 3-year CAGR (FY17E-20E) of 31.7%, 41.3% and 32.1% respectively with a FCF yield of c10%. More importantly, the Group will become attactive on conventional multiple metrics, PE of 12.6x FY18E EPS (March YE) given the earnings ramp delivered by SKP. Valuation mixed: We think Vectura have paid a fair but full price for SKP which, when executed alongside recent share price weakness has magnified the potential dilution. That said, we acknowledge that acquisition targets that fit well rarely coincide with perfect market conditions. Our conventional valuation for Vectura (SoTP; DCF and rNPV) suggests fair value of New Co at c190p (down from 206p) once the deal completes. However, we think investors should focus on the New Co financial profile which shows the shares trading on an implied EV/EBITDA of sub 10x by FY18E and 12.6x FY18E EPS. Considering upcoming newsflow (VR315 in particular) alongside growth and cash generation metrics we believe a re-rating likely from these low levels given the growth on offer. Valuation: Given the risk associated with assets not yet approved by regulators or still in their launch phase we utilise a SoTP model; for partnered launched assets we utilise NPV analysis with a WACC rate of 7% (Vectura is net cash) and no terminal value beyond Vectura’s patent protection. For partnered pipeline assets we use risk-adjusted NPVs with a discount rate of 10%, standard industry associated risk adjustments and no terminal value beyond Vectura’s patent protection on the products. For wholly owned pipeline assets we also use a rNPV (again a discount rate of 10% and standard risk adjustments) but apply a terminal with a growth rate of -2.5%. This provides our price target of 205p and our Outperform rating, although near term newsflow on VR315 in the US and on both Utibron & Seebri assets (also US) may drive our valuation towards 230p. We have not updated our forecasts or valuation for the SKP merger, but provide sensitivity analysis to our forecasts and valuation within. Price target impediments: We see two key impediments to our price target and rating: 1. VR315 – The launch of VR315 in the US is arguably the most important launch from Vectura’s pipeline over the coming months. A generic of Advair (aka Seretide) we anticipate the product being directly substitutable and, with only one competitor (Mylan) in the short term we have modelled only partial price erosion. If this launch is delayed then this would erode an estimated c7p for each 6 month delay and we see downside risk as capped at c.50p to our valuation if the product fails to launch altogether. 2. Utibron & Seebri – Whilst we believe Novartis is unlikely to shelve these assets in the US, it could find a commercial partner given the cost of launching and as the market becomes more competitive. We see downside risk of c.20p to our valuation if the assets are not launched in the US.
Vectura share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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