Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Vectura Group LSE:VEC London Ordinary Share GB00B01D1K48 ORD 0.025P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.55p -0.74% 73.35p 959,595 16:35:20
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
72.75p 73.20p 75.75p 72.05p 72.25p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 148.00 -102.20 -12.60 498.0

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Date Time Title Posts
23/3/201916:30Vectura - An emerging Pharmaceutical Co.8,183
04/4/200619:42A winner.87

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Vectura Daily Update: Vectura Group is listed in the Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker VEC. The last closing price for Vectura was 73.90p.
Vectura Group has a 4 week average price of 72p and a 12 week average price of 68.10p.
The 1 year high share price is 107.80p while the 1 year low share price is currently 65.85p.
There are currently 678,929,656 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 866,806 shares. The market capitalisation of Vectura Group is £497,994,902.68.
broadgreen: alamaison5, you need to know that VEC is an inhalation specialist. Means you should take a deep breath before you check the share price.
polaris: While the SKP merger goodwill costs are being amortised, i have no issue with VEC using cash to buy back shares in the market. As long as they do not drain the cash pile to a point where developments can be impacted, then it is probably a reasonable way to increase earnings...once the amortisation ends. This will be somewhat hidden in the 'headline loss' that the amortisation leads to and that hacks get so overworked about. EBITDA is positive and the cash pile is growing. That means that the current business is doing fine thank you very much...i.e. more than self-sustaining. 2019 will still bring a few ups and downs, of that i am sure. It remains to be seen what the ruling in the UK patent court means for VEC going forward. I doubt that VEC will get anything out of the US court action, but you never know. As the IP payments have been withheld since 2016, it will certainly not impact the current business. However, there will be the court costs. The combined impact of the IP litigation will mean, IMO, that royalties from Ellipta sales will cease in 2019. That is currently worth £9m p.a. On top of that, the agreement with Pacira on the royalties for Exparel ended in September 2018. While VEC mentioned another patent family that might impact this date, i get the feeling it is just another VEC/GSK type affair and doubt there will be any extension of royalties. I will continue to watch PCRX though as the $32m royalty for $500M in annual net sales of Exparel is non-time-limited. That could be a nice windfall depending on the sales growth from Exparel with the new indications and reducing opioid use push in the US. In respiratory, the primary products are doing well - Flutiform and Ultibro (Utibron). VR632 was approved in first countries in the EU (with Sandoz) and will be launched in 2019...the parallel US development is likely VR2081. New developments with Hikma have appeared on the website and i assume these are related to the generic Ellipta portfolio. There are other smaller products that are already launched where i expect to see increasing amounts of royalties. I also expect news and resubmission on VR315 (Advair) as well as phase III results and possible submission of QVM149 (with Novartis - a triple therapy) Revenue growth will be offset by further declines in the non respiratory markets from mature products coming off patent. This is well flagged and i do not expect much in the way of unexpected negative news. VR736 has appeared on the website for severe influenza. This is not one i have seen before - anyone got background on this? VR410 i thought was the phase I development with Pulmatrix for a generic Stiolto, that has now been side-lined. I assume there will be updates at the FY results and any open days in the interim. VR465 with Ablynx has been de-prioritised and will also likely fall off the on-going development page. VR647 will hopefully enter phase III post discussion of necessary clinical endpoints with the FDA. I would also expect new developments to appear in the next 12-24 months on the nebulisation technology. It remains to be seen what these are and how much it will be VEC driven or partner driven. The FY results for 2018 with the outlook for 2019 will be important. I see this year as the low in terms of potential revenues, but EBITDA will remain positive and valuation for the generics portfolio will steadily increase from now. I am comfortable with my core holding of 180k shares. I believe now that the 70p area represents the base case of where we are today, with all the discontinued and failed developments taken into account. The cash pile means that all new developments can be funded without coming to the market for a fund raising, while also providing a nice buffer to take advantage of any market possibilities. I'll not be adding further here until i see definite progress in terms of the share price. I would rather buy into a defined up-trend than second guess the vagaries of the market. This will be a longer term story that unfolds rather than a get-rich-quick scheme. That said, i do think there remains the possibility for corporate action, with VEC the intended target due to its development portfolio. I am not much one for price targets but, with solid progress on the development portfolio, my hope is that we see a valuation back towards the 100p level in 2019. regards all, Paul
popper joe: Last year's buy-back wasn't exactly a roaring success, at least not for us shareholders. I suppose if you consider success to be buying as many shares as possible for the money that you spend (£15m)then it was a job well-done! It seemed to be the catalyst for the shorters to sell and the share price was significantly lower at the end of the exercise than at the beginning. As Polaris mentioned the other day, the company is cash generative and is now back to the position of having more than £100m cash. At what point should they be looking to pay a dividend?
polaris: alexchry-another way to look at it is that H1 gives £80M revenues and £24.6M adj. EBITDA, with the cash pile at £83M after the buyback completion and the H1 cap-ex. I'd expect FY in the range £160-170M with adj EBITDA £40-50M (lower as there will be higher R&D spend in H2 related to Ph II and Ph III work). At current share price then the market cap is £475M and the EV less than £400M. With the projected revenues and EBITDA then i just cannot see the lowly value here. Yes, there is a headline loss due to the amortisation. That is going to continue for a couple of years at least. However, the business is more than self-sustaining and the prospects are of high potential. You can heavily discount them now in terms of value now, but they are there. Given these numbers and none of the baggage, what kind of valuation would you be looking at, assuming you were told the company operated in the pharma arena? I still think the market is fixated on the headline loss, random concerns (the Brexit effect example this morning) and the delays to generic Advair. The de-stocking for Flutiform was a non-issue, IMO. I know this is hypothetical but, what if VEC signs the multi-generic open-inhale-close deal with a generics company like Sandoz/Hikma/Teva/Mylan/Sanofi etc in the coming weeks? What value do you think it would have long term? Is any of that in the VEC price today? Then throw in the generic Symbicort, Spiriva, Stiolto and Advair developments for the US. Generic Symbicort is now approved in the EU (Sandoz as the partner). There are upcoming launches of products in China, a huge potential market. If VEC were a solely US-based company then i would expect a market cap well in excess of $1Bn, probably more than $2Bn...just look at the market cap of Pacira. That is the old injectibles division of SKP and is valued at more than SKP and VEC were at the height of their popularity pre-merger, despite having never made a profit! I see base value and growth prospects, others will see jam tomorrow. Each to their own i suppose. I am putting my money where my mouth is, so i also know i have a biased pov. However, i just don't see a downside from here.
cumnor: They do it because they can get away with it-they know we have a mundane, predictable CEO who has overseen the share price dropping by 60% on nothing but Advair delay-this should have impacted the share price to the extent of a 10-20p max but which strangely has not impacted Hikma at all. Had we even a half dynamic, average CEO with some status the hedgies and shorts would be wary lest they be surprised by an unpredictable deal or bit of news to hurt them. I have no idea why the current CEO is still here, given the company's disastrous share price performance over the past year. imo
a1ord53: Vectura Group Vectura Group (VEC) is a leader in the development of respiratory products, including treatments for asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) aka 'smoker's cough' - the fourth leading cause of death worldwide with increasing prevalence particularly in the elderly. The development of inhaled drugs requires the interplay of the following three factors: the drug, the formulation and the device; thus, it is a complex field, in which Vectura is a global leader with a very strong track record. Its technology is embedded in half of new inhalers launched from 2012 to 2016, demonstrating it is the partner of choice for targeting airways. Shares have been weak due to delays in obtaining FDA approval for its generic version of GSK's blockbuster Advair drug. We could therefore see a substantial positive impact on its top line when this finally launches into the market. Given its business model, which consists of receiving royalties on inhaler sales, Vectura has high revenue visibility and currently trades below the NPV of the current portfolio. This means investors are getting the pipeline for free at today's share price. Claire Shaw is manager of the OYSTER European Mid & Small Cap fund at SYZ Asset Management.
a1ord53: Vectura (VEC LN) Buyback of £15m could lead to c.2-3% EPS accretion in 2018 and beyond Disseminated 14 Nov 2017 08:41 AM GMT 14 November 2017 Overweight Price: 90p 13 Nov 2017 This morning Vectura announced plans for a buyback of up to a maximum consideration of £15m. The buyback programme commenced on 13th November 2017 and should be completed by 11th May 2018 and the shares repurchased will be cancelled. We see this as a slight positive as it displays Vectura management’s disciplined approach to capital management while also highlighting that at current levels they believe the shares are undervalued. We believe this buyback is opportunistic given the strong cash balance and current depressed share price, and will not affect Vectura’s ability to invest in its proprietary pipeline to drive future growth. As a sensitivity analysis, the buyback programme could lead to c.2-3% Core EPS accretion from 2018 onwards, although is neutral on an NPV basis. As a reminder our NPV analysis values Vectura at 177p, or 107p ex the pipeline offering c.95% and 19% upside respectively.  Buyback sensitivity suggests 2-3% Core EPS accretion from 2018 onwards. At current levels (90p), a £15m buyback could result in the repurchase of 16.67m shares. Assuming the buyback is spread equally across the buyback period (13th November 2017 to 11th May 2018) suggests 2018 weighted average shares of 664.8m (currently 679.3m) leading to 2.2% EPS accretion in 2018. With Average shares of 662.7m in 2019 and beyond, our sensitivity suggests 2.5% Core EPS accretion. Our EmV is largely unchanged as the cash outflow of £15m largely offsets the lower share count. Table 1: Vectura Buyback Sensitivity analysis Current 679,344 Sensitivity 678,773 679,344 664,833 679,344 662,677 -2.5% -16,667 7.8 8.0 2.5% 0.2 191.1 176.1 -7.9% -15.0 679,344 679,344 662,677 662,677 -2.5% -2.5% -16,667 -16,667 5.9 8.4 6.0 8.6 2.5% 2.5% 0.1 0.2 218.7 280.6 203.7 265.6 -6.9% -5.3% -15.0 -15.0 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 18-21 CAGR Share Count (weighted average share number) % Difference -0.1% -2.1% Absolute Difference -570 -14,511 Core EPS (p) Current 2.0 New 2.0 % Difference 0.1% Absolute Difference 0.0 Cash (£m) Current 112.0 Sensitivity 107.9 3.9 4.0 2.2% 0.1 146.8 131.8 29.3% 29.4% 24.1% 26.3% % Difference Absolute Difference EmV (p) Current 177 Sensitivity 178 % Difference 0.7% Absolute Difference 1.3 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
dontay: Wow, it actually managed stay in the blue today! (Just!)So a wee bit more speculation just to keep things nicely ticking over! Attracting Bid Interest From GSK's CompetitorsBesides GlaxoSmithkline (LON:GSK) becoming more keen at this level, around 78p, the weak share price has attracted more M&A interest for Vectura (LON:VEC).Previously it appeared 200p a share would be required to take over Vectura against competition from the likes of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Bristol Meyers (NYSE:BMY). On the smaller side Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARNA) may want to gatecrash the party.The fundamental buy argument here which the potential bidders are backing is the way that Vectura is cash rich, debt free, and with potential consisting of the group's technology and drugs pipeline.The strategic interest for GSK's competitors is that they would not wish the UK giant to get a sector edge over them via Vectura.Given that this is relatively small company around £500m – even a 100% premium is only pocket change for one of the multinationals. The implication is that £1.50 may now be the price than is too good an offer for Vectura shareholders to resist.
s1zematters: yet more ventilation of a bid from Glaxo, this time at in the USA website reading the story, it seems the editor is not familiar with vec or its financial position! hTTps:// GlaxoSmithKline could be poised to acquire its respiratory partner, UK biotech Vectura, for $1.65bn. Speculation around a possible bid has mounted in recent months because GSK is about to face generic competition against its respiratory blockbuster Advair in the US – and also because Vectura has had to scale back its ambitions because of mounting debts. The Daily Telegraph newspaper reported late last week that GSK might bid £1.2bn ($1.65bn), a significant premium to Vectura’s current market capitalisation of £824 million. The biotech firm’s share price fell nearly 40% over the course of 2017, largely because the FDA had rejected Vectura and Hikma’s generic version of Advair, but the companies now hope to resolve these problems in Q1 this year. Vectura’s smart inhaler technology is used in GSK’s next-generation Ellipta respiratory products, and bringing it in house could boost the big pharma’s respiratory franchise. However Vectura’s many partnerships with GSK’s rivals could prove to be a stumbling block – as could the fact that Vectura is preparing to challenge GSK’s Advair with a generic challenger. Vectura also has collaborations with Mundipharma, Bayer and Novartis, and these partners have also been linked as possible buyers of the company. James Ward-Lilley Its financial problems led Vectura’s chief executive James Ward-Lilley to announce a new business strategy in early January. He unveiled a shift in its focus towards lower risk development opportunities in high potential generics molecules in its pipeline. It will also end new investment in higher risk, novel molecules in early stage programmes, and says it will look opportunities to partner existing programmes. These include its early stage novel molecule VR588 and VR942, an inhaled biologic which completed a Phase I trial during 2017 and which Vectura is already co-developing with UCB. The most promising late-stage project in its pipeline is the Novartis triple combination programme for asthma, QVM149. This is currently in a phase 3 trial, with first regulatory submissions expected in 2019. For GSK, a mid-sized acquisition would be a break from its recent past, as the company under previous CEO Sir Andrew Witty refrained almost entirely from M&A. However new chief executive Emma Walmsley is taking a different approach, and is also mulling a move for Pfizer’s multi-billion dollar consumer division, which could be up for sale later this year. 2018 is expected to see a major increase in pharma-biotech M&A, with Silicon Valley Bank predicting the year will see 20 ‘big exit’ deals over the year.
verger: I'm confused! VEC have valued SKP as worth £x, and as it is a merger they have equated £x as a share swap ie 2.7977 VEC shares for every SKP share based on the VEC closing share price on 15/3/16 of 146.60p. If people think that SKP is worth more then the VEC share price needs to go up to reflect this. But what if people like the deal (as I do), buy into VEC pushing the share price up and making the deal more expensive for VEC? What is the timetable for this deal? Should they not suspend the shares? Or have I missed something? Advice please!
Vectura share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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