Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Vectura Group LSE:VEC London Ordinary Share GB00B01D1K48 ORD 0.025P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.50p -3.08% 78.70p 3,086,391 16:35:23
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
78.25p 78.70p 81.15p 77.40p 81.15p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 126.5 -40.1 -5.3 - 533.69

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Date Time Title Posts
17/3/201821:15Vectura - An emerging Pharmaceutical Co.6,848
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2018-03-19 16:52:3178.77400315.08O
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Vectura Daily Update: Vectura Group is listed in the Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker VEC. The last closing price for Vectura was 81.20p.
Vectura Group has a 4 week average price of 70.15p and a 12 week average price of 70.15p.
The 1 year high share price is 166.90p while the 1 year low share price is currently 70.15p.
There are currently 678,134,714 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 7,824,193 shares. The market capitalisation of Vectura Group is £533,692,019.92.
aceuk: Hikma and Vectura have had constructive dialogue with the FDA to resolve the observations made in the Complete Response Letter ("CRL") received on 11(th) May 2017 and they have been able to address and clarify the majority of the questions raised. As announced on 9(th) November 2017, Hikma, supported by Vectura, decided to progress a dispute resolution process regarding the remaining outstanding issue, namely the different interpretation of the results from the Clinical Endpoint Study. This process has now concluded. Both Vectura and Hikma remain confident in the approvability of the product and are committed to bringing this cost-effective alternative to Advair Diskus(R) to the market as quickly as possible. James Ward-Lilley, Chief Executive Officer, commented: "Whilst the outcome of the dispute resolution process is disappointing, we now have a clear pathway forwards, and we and our partner Hikma remain confident in, and committed to the approval of VR315. Assuming the successful execution of the new study and a standard regulatory review, we now expect a potential approval and launch during 2020. "Importantly, we are one of the few first movers into this complex area and in this process we have cleared up a significant number of issues which we believe has strengthened our insight and likelihood of success. These learnings support our confidence that we have the capabilities to achieve US regulatory approval for our extensive inhaled generic pipeline, which includes versions of the three current largest US inhaled brands." The FDA's decision will have no impact on Vectura's revenue or R&D expectations for the year. You are clearly on a different string ropey
a1ord53: Vectura (VEC LN) Buyback of £15m could lead to c.2-3% EPS accretion in 2018 and beyond Disseminated 14 Nov 2017 08:41 AM GMT 14 November 2017 Overweight Price: 90p 13 Nov 2017 This morning Vectura announced plans for a buyback of up to a maximum consideration of £15m. The buyback programme commenced on 13th November 2017 and should be completed by 11th May 2018 and the shares repurchased will be cancelled. We see this as a slight positive as it displays Vectura management’s disciplined approach to capital management while also highlighting that at current levels they believe the shares are undervalued. We believe this buyback is opportunistic given the strong cash balance and current depressed share price, and will not affect Vectura’s ability to invest in its proprietary pipeline to drive future growth. As a sensitivity analysis, the buyback programme could lead to c.2-3% Core EPS accretion from 2018 onwards, although is neutral on an NPV basis. As a reminder our NPV analysis values Vectura at 177p, or 107p ex the pipeline offering c.95% and 19% upside respectively.  Buyback sensitivity suggests 2-3% Core EPS accretion from 2018 onwards. At current levels (90p), a £15m buyback could result in the repurchase of 16.67m shares. Assuming the buyback is spread equally across the buyback period (13th November 2017 to 11th May 2018) suggests 2018 weighted average shares of 664.8m (currently 679.3m) leading to 2.2% EPS accretion in 2018. With Average shares of 662.7m in 2019 and beyond, our sensitivity suggests 2.5% Core EPS accretion. Our EmV is largely unchanged as the cash outflow of £15m largely offsets the lower share count. Table 1: Vectura Buyback Sensitivity analysis Current 679,344 Sensitivity 678,773 679,344 664,833 679,344 662,677 -2.5% -16,667 7.8 8.0 2.5% 0.2 191.1 176.1 -7.9% -15.0 679,344 679,344 662,677 662,677 -2.5% -2.5% -16,667 -16,667 5.9 8.4 6.0 8.6 2.5% 2.5% 0.1 0.2 218.7 280.6 203.7 265.6 -6.9% -5.3% -15.0 -15.0 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 18-21 CAGR Share Count (weighted average share number) % Difference -0.1% -2.1% Absolute Difference -570 -14,511 Core EPS (p) Current 2.0 New 2.0 % Difference 0.1% Absolute Difference 0.0 Cash (£m) Current 112.0 Sensitivity 107.9 3.9 4.0 2.2% 0.1 146.8 131.8 29.3% 29.4% 24.1% 26.3% % Difference Absolute Difference EmV (p) Current 177 Sensitivity 178 % Difference 0.7% Absolute Difference 1.3 Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
dontay: Wow, it actually managed stay in the blue today! (Just!)So a wee bit more speculation just to keep things nicely ticking over! Attracting Bid Interest From GSK's CompetitorsBesides GlaxoSmithkline (LON:GSK) becoming more keen at this level, around 78p, the weak share price has attracted more M&A interest for Vectura (LON:VEC).Previously it appeared 200p a share would be required to take over Vectura against competition from the likes of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and Bristol Meyers (NYSE:BMY). On the smaller side Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARNA) may want to gatecrash the party.The fundamental buy argument here which the potential bidders are backing is the way that Vectura is cash rich, debt free, and with potential consisting of the group's technology and drugs pipeline.The strategic interest for GSK's competitors is that they would not wish the UK giant to get a sector edge over them via Vectura.Given that this is relatively small company around £500m – even a 100% premium is only pocket change for one of the multinationals. The implication is that £1.50 may now be the price than is too good an offer for Vectura shareholders to resist.
justiceforthemany: GlaxoSmithKline already partners with Vectura on respiratory therapies, but some say the British pharma giant could be looking to take the pair’s relationship one step further. Glaxo is preparing a 175-pence-per-share bid for the Chippenham, U.K.-based company, sources told The Telegraph. That offer would value Vectura at close to £1.2 billion. If GSK does strike, it’ll be taking advantage of Vectura’s 2017 share price drop. In May, the FDA turned down a generic of GlaxoSmithKline blockbuster Advair from Vectura and partner Hikma, and investors have continued to pressure the stock as they await a final verdict from the regulatory agency, due this quarter, the newspaper notes.
s1zematters: yet more ventilation of a bid from Glaxo, this time at in the USA website reading the story, it seems the editor is not familiar with vec or its financial position! hTTps:// GlaxoSmithKline could be poised to acquire its respiratory partner, UK biotech Vectura, for $1.65bn. Speculation around a possible bid has mounted in recent months because GSK is about to face generic competition against its respiratory blockbuster Advair in the US – and also because Vectura has had to scale back its ambitions because of mounting debts. The Daily Telegraph newspaper reported late last week that GSK might bid £1.2bn ($1.65bn), a significant premium to Vectura’s current market capitalisation of £824 million. The biotech firm’s share price fell nearly 40% over the course of 2017, largely because the FDA had rejected Vectura and Hikma’s generic version of Advair, but the companies now hope to resolve these problems in Q1 this year. Vectura’s smart inhaler technology is used in GSK’s next-generation Ellipta respiratory products, and bringing it in house could boost the big pharma’s respiratory franchise. However Vectura’s many partnerships with GSK’s rivals could prove to be a stumbling block – as could the fact that Vectura is preparing to challenge GSK’s Advair with a generic challenger. Vectura also has collaborations with Mundipharma, Bayer and Novartis, and these partners have also been linked as possible buyers of the company. James Ward-Lilley Its financial problems led Vectura’s chief executive James Ward-Lilley to announce a new business strategy in early January. He unveiled a shift in its focus towards lower risk development opportunities in high potential generics molecules in its pipeline. It will also end new investment in higher risk, novel molecules in early stage programmes, and says it will look opportunities to partner existing programmes. These include its early stage novel molecule VR588 and VR942, an inhaled biologic which completed a Phase I trial during 2017 and which Vectura is already co-developing with UCB. The most promising late-stage project in its pipeline is the Novartis triple combination programme for asthma, QVM149. This is currently in a phase 3 trial, with first regulatory submissions expected in 2019. For GSK, a mid-sized acquisition would be a break from its recent past, as the company under previous CEO Sir Andrew Witty refrained almost entirely from M&A. However new chief executive Emma Walmsley is taking a different approach, and is also mulling a move for Pfizer’s multi-billion dollar consumer division, which could be up for sale later this year. 2018 is expected to see a major increase in pharma-biotech M&A, with Silicon Valley Bank predicting the year will see 20 ‘big exit’ deals over the year.
stevenlondon3: For what it is worth my reading of today's statement is that Vectura does not want to depress short to medium term profits, which would lead to a depressed share price that would attract an unwanted bid. Their cash flow models probably value the company markedly higher than the current share price...hence the successful share buy backs. The bears would argue that the models have rubbish put in,so rubbish out. I remain a holder (still below my average purchase price but did pick up a few at 93p.)
a1ord53: On 8 November JPMorgan Cazanove wrote : US Generic Advair accounts for only 6% of our Vectura NPV, 11p per share. Arguably the Vectura share- price prior to today’s announcement included very little value for this project since the CRL earlier this year. That said, we expect significant share price underperformance today, with the market disappointed that the optionality around this asset has been pushed further out. On our forecasts the stock is now (89p) trading at almost 20% discount to our base business NPV (109p), with more than 70p of pipeline optionality coming for free. Vectura Updating for US generic Advair update, launch moved to early 2020, NPV derived PT trimmed 3% to 175p June-18 PT lowered 3%/5p to 175p (180p), reflecting further US generic Advair delays, US Advair now only 4% of our NPV. Yesterday saw Vectura’s partner Hikma provide a disappointing update on US generic Advair, as described below. The negative update makes only a very modest impact on our Vectura NPV, though it does drive significant EPS downgrades in 2019-21e, and removes what could have been a positive catalyst that could have helped close some of the company’s very large NPV discount. At the current share-price (96p), the stock trades at an 11% discount to our base business valuation (108p) and a c.45% discount to our c.175p NPV derived PT, which includes risk-adjusted pipeline. Though we believe patience will be required for much of the valuation gap to close, we continue to see current levels representing an attractive entry point for longer-term investors, buying into the diversified set of on-market and pipeline respiratory cashflows.
rivaldo: Peel Hunt value VEC at 200p per share (BTW this article really needed sub-editing...): http :// "This unfancied drug stock has the potential to soar 14:38 07 Sep 2016 Peel Hunt’s Walker reckons Vectura is worth around 200p per share There is a huge opportunity for the likes Vectura and is partner Hikma Pharmaceuticals as they copy-cat GlaxoSmithKline's asthma treatment. They’ve been rewarded with an 11% rise in the share price post-results. But it has been a hard slog for investors in respiratory specialist Vectura Group PLC (LON:VEC), who have seen the stock drift by around a quarter over the last year. The reason for the decline? Well, according to analysts, there has been a degree of uncertainty around the £441mln takeover of Skyeparma, completed this summer. Earlier Vectura told the market the merger benefits would be higher than first anticipated. What followed was a relief rally; in other words, the markets concerns weren’t crystalised. So where to now for the stock? Well, according the broker Peel Hunt, the recent weakness of the share price provides an opportunity. Analyst Amy Walker says the company’s pipeline and technology platform is worth around 100p (or just over two-thirds of Vectura’s current valuation). That provides almost a “free option” on VR315, a generic version of Advair, the “mega blockbuster” asthma product developed by GlaxoSmithKline (LON:GSK). While Advair came off patent in 2010, it has remained uncontested until now because the delivery method retained patent protection. That final defence against the copy-cat producers has been eroded. In the first half Advair generated sales of £1.7bn for Europe’s largest pharma company. So there is a huge opportunity for the likes Vectura and is partner Hikma Pharmaceuticals (LON:HIK). Peel Hunt’s Walker reckons Vectura is worth around 200p per share, compared to a current market price of around 145p. The consensus valuation is 206p, based on NPVs provided four other brokers and the highest of those estimates is 231p. “Vectura has suffered a significant de-rating post the Skyepharma merger and recent disappointing news flow,” said “Our detailed analysis of the assumptions baked into the share price and consensus forecasts…suggest the stock now offers a free option on VR315 (generic Advair) on both a net present value and mid-term multiples basis.”"
verger: I'm confused! VEC have valued SKP as worth £x, and as it is a merger they have equated £x as a share swap ie 2.7977 VEC shares for every SKP share based on the VEC closing share price on 15/3/16 of 146.60p. If people think that SKP is worth more then the VEC share price needs to go up to reflect this. But what if people like the deal (as I do), buy into VEC pushing the share price up and making the deal more expensive for VEC? What is the timetable for this deal? Should they not suspend the shares? Or have I missed something? Advice please!
soundbuy: H/T FT AV Numis The union of Vectura and Skyepharma is one of the most complementary mergers in the UK healthcare sector. It will create a £1bn+ FTSE250 UK respiratory champion with strong, globally competitive technologies and capabilities across the entire spectrum of dry powder, smart nebuliser and now metered dose inhalers, making it the partner of choice in targeting the airways and allowing it to address 60% more of the $35bn global respiratory market than Vectura did on its own. We see the merger as a strategically and financially logical step-up for Vectura, with the combined company offering critical mass and attractive growth at a good price. We re-introduce our Buy recommendation with a 12-month target of 264p. ● In this 30-page note, we look at Skyepharma in some detail, focusing on Flutiform in particular. We see the prospect of it becoming a c.$500m drug as realistic, offering Vectura shareholders a growing, lower risk cash flow to diversify its higher risk prospects (VR315 and wholly owned FAVOLIR / SCIPE assets). ● The ongoing roll-out of Flutiform is set to transform the P&L with revenues and underlying EBITDA set to approximately double and then grow at 14% and 20% CAGR respectively to end FY2021. EPS CAGR is higher, at 33%. ● We see EPS accretion of 24% in year 1 (FY2017, 7% ROI), growing to c.60% over years 2-3 (FY2018-2019, double digit ROI), then falling to single digits as VR315 royalties come through and are spread over a higher share count. ● The deal washes its face on our risk-adjusted SOTP analysis (£470m vs £460m consideration and estimated costs). ● Our risk adjusted SOTP value is 14% diluted from our previous 271p target. The potential for platform synergies are not captured in this approach, which to date has attributed no terminal value to the assets. ● Skyepharma will bring in significant near-term cash-flows to give management a multitude of options to make the leap to self-commercialisation and build lasting sustainable enterprise value. The time feels right to switch to a multiple-based valuation. ● We see the increased size, liquidity and FTSE250 listing increasing awareness of Vectura's steep forecast trajectory. A rating relative to BTG feels appropriate. Applying a P/E in line with BTG of 24.7x (vs 29% risked EPS CAGR) our risked FY2020 EPS of 16.8p (fully taxed) and discounting back, we see a multiples based valuation of 294p. We blend this with our SOTP of 234p to derive our target price of 264p, reflecting the need to complete the transition to self commercialisation. ● On our initial projected consolidated EPS forecasts, Vectura's P/E drops to single digits by year 3 (FY2019), now driven mostly by Flutiform: a strong buy signal in our view. RBC Cap Mkts. Strategic rationale: Strategically, we see the deal enhancing Vectura’s capabilities (oral, pMDI and commercial manufacturing) but think the financial rationale is the main motive for the combination. Vectura has a larger pipeline but its partnered assets have only recently launched and its financial profile still less developed than SKP’s, which has a smaller pipeline but with key assets launched and delivering profit growth (FY15A EBITDA margin of 37.5%). Combined, we see the two offering a healthy pipeline of opportunities with a strong financial profile. Turbo charged financials: We choose not to update our forecasts (or valuation) until completion of the deal and instead provide a view on the combination below and within the note. The New Co will have an implied Mcap of £1.1bn and offer a revenue, EBITDA and EPS 3-year CAGR (FY17E-20E) of 31.7%, 41.3% and 32.1% respectively with a FCF yield of c10%. More importantly, the Group will become attactive on conventional multiple metrics, PE of 12.6x FY18E EPS (March YE) given the earnings ramp delivered by SKP. Valuation mixed: We think Vectura have paid a fair but full price for SKP which, when executed alongside recent share price weakness has magnified the potential dilution. That said, we acknowledge that acquisition targets that fit well rarely coincide with perfect market conditions. Our conventional valuation for Vectura (SoTP; DCF and rNPV) suggests fair value of New Co at c190p (down from 206p) once the deal completes. However, we think investors should focus on the New Co financial profile which shows the shares trading on an implied EV/EBITDA of sub 10x by FY18E and 12.6x FY18E EPS. Considering upcoming newsflow (VR315 in particular) alongside growth and cash generation metrics we believe a re-rating likely from these low levels given the growth on offer. Valuation: Given the risk associated with assets not yet approved by regulators or still in their launch phase we utilise a SoTP model; for partnered launched assets we utilise NPV analysis with a WACC rate of 7% (Vectura is net cash) and no terminal value beyond Vectura’s patent protection. For partnered pipeline assets we use risk-adjusted NPVs with a discount rate of 10%, standard industry associated risk adjustments and no terminal value beyond Vectura’s patent protection on the products. For wholly owned pipeline assets we also use a rNPV (again a discount rate of 10% and standard risk adjustments) but apply a terminal with a growth rate of -2.5%. This provides our price target of 205p and our Outperform rating, although near term newsflow on VR315 in the US and on both Utibron & Seebri assets (also US) may drive our valuation towards 230p. We have not updated our forecasts or valuation for the SKP merger, but provide sensitivity analysis to our forecasts and valuation within. Price target impediments: We see two key impediments to our price target and rating: 1. VR315 – The launch of VR315 in the US is arguably the most important launch from Vectura’s pipeline over the coming months. A generic of Advair (aka Seretide) we anticipate the product being directly substitutable and, with only one competitor (Mylan) in the short term we have modelled only partial price erosion. If this launch is delayed then this would erode an estimated c7p for each 6 month delay and we see downside risk as capped at c.50p to our valuation if the product fails to launch altogether. 2. Utibron & Seebri – Whilst we believe Novartis is unlikely to shelve these assets in the US, it could find a commercial partner given the cost of launching and as the market becomes more competitive. We see downside risk of c.20p to our valuation if the assets are not launched in the US.
Vectura share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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