Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[alexchry] 25/2/2021 11:34

Around four years late so by now I am almost past caring about further delays.

[pooroldboy55] 25/2/2021 11:25

Very soon ? how long is a piece of string ??

[volvo] 25/2/2021 09:21

...its been about 2 months already, but hopeful of a green light on Advair very soon according to IR at Hikma

[a1ord53] 25/2/2021 07:57

Hikma today :

“Received US FDA approval for generic Advair Diskus(R) and expect to resume launch as soon as the US FDA completes their priority review of the outstanding Prior Approval Supplement (PAS)“

What does it mean Priority review of outstanding PAS ? - one month or ... ?

[letsmakesome] 24/2/2021 21:57

They'd have done a lot better investing it in bitcoin gin the past year ?

[diesel] 24/2/2021 09:22

It depends how their incentive plan is written, if it’s based on share price or mcap then any giveaway divvy will have a negative effect, mind you same for us really.
A divvy would be nice but will probably reduce share price by equivalent.

[best1467] 23/2/2021 17:02

If they do decide a one off dividend payment I hope it’s just a straight forward payment without reducing share holding like the last shambolic payment

[elsa7878] 23/2/2021 16:18

Great post Polaris - thank you.

[alexchry] 23/2/2021 16:08

Diesel, I sold none in the 120s though it did cross my mind, like you I wish I had sold my total holding. After the first Advair rejection I could have got 130+, a number of posters did sell out for that, I just wish I had done the same and not put on my Mr Micawber hat!

[diesel] 23/2/2021 14:47

Polaris, not sure I’m expecting any more light from the board. Sold a lot in the high 120’s now wishing I’d sold out!
Too many negatives and the Advair generic is barely believable.

[polaris] 23/2/2021 13:34

Except the Q4 results from GSK show that ongoing sales are significantly below original estimates. Also post #11004. I'd now expect the remaining royalty sum to be nearer $26 M, pre-tax.

VEC should get the $32 M from Pacira either Q4 2021 or Q1 2022...another one-off, albeit a welcome one.

Now it is all about the established products and new to market. Hikma screwed up with generic Advair. We do not yet know enough about QVM149 and the EU generic Symbicort. Flutiform pays the bills but seems to be close to peak sales, unless there are moves to enter other markets. Seebri and Ultibro/UtiBron also seem to be at peak sales, with erosion from other entrants.

There is on-going work on US generic Symbicort (VR2081) and the Ellipta series. The FY results will really need a full corporate update on developments too, otherwise what is the future? CDMO is slow and small money to date.

There are more questions than answers. Maybe VEC should return the cash to shareholders, admit that they are not a FTSE250 company, and build towards the CDMO or a package deal takeout. I just don't know.

Results in a few weeks will hopefully bring some things into the light!

[volvo] 23/2/2021 13:15

We were hovering around here before we got $200m from GSK and Advair was approved.....the share price refuses to realise these gains, thats why I wanted the company to clearly state that they had won in court against GSK and had now received the $164m from them and another $36m was in the pipeline.

Sometimes it pays to blow your own trumpet.

.....just wait for the results in a couple of weeks.

[polaris] 23/2/2021 13:01

Which would lead to VEC flirting with ejection from the FTSE250 again. Rock and a hard place.

[volvo] 23/2/2021 12:26

Whats the BoD going to do with the dough now GSK have made clear they will not appeal again?

The share price is not reflecting the new cash so pass it on.

A special divi of £100m would still leave £100m min on the books when all said and done....a 15pc divi would be 16p - 17p....and when it goes ex divi fully expect the share not to budge unless we are in the 135p-145p range

[a1ord53] 23/2/2021 08:30

Advair was and is Vecturas share price killer!
Obviously Hikma and Vectura did very bad job -5 years wasted, competition selling their Advairs and Hikma again been put on hold !
Sp is under pressure again.
Frustrating for all shareholders.

[justiceforthemany] 22/2/2021 20:26

Strong GBP also having an impact here?

[volvo] 22/2/2021 18:37

diesel with your optimism the only way is up

[diesel] 22/2/2021 16:57

This is not just a failure to get this to market but it raises serious doubts about the speed at which Vec/Hickma can develop a triple therapy generic. Confidence is an important part of the markets valuation on any stock, and management have a big job to convince investors that this is growth story.

[best1467] 22/2/2021 16:55

It’s a mind boggling level of incompetence by Hikima we need to see an update with theElipta generic programme it’s certainly overdue

[popper joe] 22/2/2021 14:15

Thanks Paul. Perhaps we should sue Hikma now for loss of earnings ;-)

[polaris] 22/2/2021 13:37

@Popper joe - the regulations changed while the minor CRL was under analysis. Hikma decided to manufacture advance product to sell immediately the approval was given. That was their risk and probably an oversight by them on the change in packaging regulations.

Remember, we were surprised by the approval/immediate launch combo. It was shortly after that the sales were suspended, due to the packaging issues. Hikma put out a revised label in a recent presentation that i read - don't have the link to hand. The assumption is that it will be approved but all product will need to be re-packaged and distributed.

It was a bold move by Hikma but seems to have back-fired.

[popper joe] 22/2/2021 13:24

It's hard to believe that these packaging issues should come to light, only after the conclusion of such an incredibly long interaction between Hikma and the FDA to reach approval. If you were of a suspicious mind, you might even think that dark forces were at work!

[polaris] 22/2/2021 13:06

GSK US market for Advair was £73 M for Q4 2020. Project that forward and you have sub £300 M for 2021 cf. over £430 M for 2020.

GSK sell the official version and an authorised generic, so the sales are made up of two entrants.

I posted several weeks ago that there are now other ANDAs for generic Advair under consideration in the US.

The window is closing rapidly again.

Best guess is that Hikma might reach 25 % of current US sales volumes for GSK but the new entrants will force the price per unit down even more.

The longer it takes for the packaging issue to be resolved, the lower the likely market share and sales volumes.

Best guess now is that Hikma will not get much beyond £50 M US Advair sales. They are going to have to speed up RoW submission and authorisation.

[volvo] 22/2/2021 11:48

Seem to remember we came out somewhere between $100-$200m, but as I said at the time Hikma have very high hopes for Advair.

Guess we will know more on Thursday from Hikma, but what seemed something minor has dragged on for 2 months.

Hoping to see the green light on Advair very soon

[fhmktg] 22/2/2021 11:47

Hikma update later this week, may give some more info on launch and uptake.