Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Vectura Group LSE:VEC London Ordinary Share GB00B01D1K48 ORD 0.025P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 77.60p 77.30p 77.40p - - - 0 05:30:11
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 148.0 -102.2 -12.6 - 526.85

Vectura Share Discussion Threads

Showing 7701 to 7725 of 7725 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
20/9/2018
16:49
The previous strategy was a mix of high volume/low royalty products and a couple of internally developed products. The latter are very high risk/high return. Most come from the SKP side, where Flutiform and the injectibles division were the great hopes. SKP realised that they did not have the cash to be able to develop both. Each one was touted as a possible $Bn revenue generator. SKP sold off the injectible assets to someone who could fully develop them, with a deal to get royalties for anything launched...that is Pacira with Exparel (and a few minor others such as Depocyt). Flutiform had a rough development track and was rejected by the FDA, even though it was approved in Europe and RoW. Had everything gone to the original plan then Flutiform would have been approved worldwide, been one of the first combi-therapies of the next generation to market, and likely been worth $300M+ p.a. in royalties and manufacturing. VEC (SKP) does well out of Flutiform, but it is far from what it was hyped (and hoped) to be. The development costs were large and it still needed to be partnered to companies with the respective sales forces (Mundipharma and Kyorin). That is the price you pay to fully develop products in-house. SKP had Flutiform AND Exparel (then called depodur) but they did not have the cash, size and distribution network to make it work. They had to choose. Roll on to about 18 months ago and the post merger VEC entity. There is Flutiform, which is steady but not a block-buster by a long stretch. Then there are the many smaller royalty type agreements on formulation and delivery. You might ask what prompted the VEC/SKP merger in the first place? I think that the current strategy was always the plan - merge the SKP and VEC IP libraries on delivery techs and then leverage them into high volume markets with mid single to low double-digit royalty streams. With the Lyon facility and the Flutiform manufacturing chain the merged entity also had the possibility to increase revenues by being part of the manufacturing chain for any new products. The CDMO model for that facility has a lot of potential for contract work. They started work on developing generics of the major respiratory products well before merger. These are now beginning to come to market: yes Advair was knocked back by the FDA but generic Symbicort now has approval in the EU (US in development) and will launch over the coming months. Advair will come in 2020. VEC also has projects for Stiolto, Spiriva, and the Ellipta delivery platform. They will become the core of their portfolio going forward. Don't forget the other deals, such as QVM149 with Novartis (expected submissions in 2019) and VR465 with Ablynx. They are also still experts in the delivery (inhaler side) and formulation. This covers some aspects of Flutiform, the deals with GSK on Ellipta (the VEC side under IP litigation) and the Seebri/Utibron/Ultibro deal with Novartis, Breelib with Bayer and Airflusal with Sandoz. I expect more developments on this side going forward. The non-core delivery projects highlighted a few posts back will be partnered and VEC will take a lower royalty and milestone type deal going forward. That lowers the risk and also lowers the R&D costs. We also have quite a few products going off patent on the royalty side: Exparel, Advate, Xatral, soon Ellipta (with or without the litigation result) etc... What i see, and i may be optimistic, is that VEC are becoming a leaner organisation in terms of R&D, focussing on what they know and partnering out the non-core developments to others with milestone and royalty based deals. The base revenue generators are there: Flutiform, Seebri/Ultibro/Utibron, Airflusal, generic Symbicort, Breelib...and they are all young products. Coming along are the generics for the top selling respiratory products in the US (and elsewhere) and the rabbit in the hat development of the open-inhale-close device (looking to get AB-rating for a generic device to deliver the Ellipta line - 5 products in the GSK portfolio). Looking at all of this, and the side developments, VEC is in a very good place, has a cash pile to bolt on acquisitions that add value and to allow some R&D on new programmes, such as the nebulised therapies. The share price does not reflect this potential, IMO. I don't even mind too much if GSK win the litigation as i think it aids VEC going forward with the device development. However, any finding for VEC will be a nice cash windfall and the potential to extend royalties from current products. The past is the past. We cannot change it. We should not hold on to it. The now looks good to me and the potential going forward is tasty looking. I've been adding a few here and there and now have about 170k and will continue to monitor share price and prospects, looking to increase my holding. regards, Paul
polaris
19/9/2018
10:16
Alex, you're right, news has been thin, the company would have been better announcing a change in tack when they had secured some of the deals they are seeking. " Extending its partnered development of high-potential generic medicines for the US market... · Taking a selective approach to future novel partnered development programmes and stopping Vectura investment in early stage novel molecule development..... Vectura will seek to partner its early stage novel molecule programme VR588 and, with its co-development partner UCB, will also jointly seek a partner for VR942, the inhaled biologic programme which completed a Phase I trial during 2017. For now it looks like a failed attempt of revitalising the company.
diesel
18/9/2018
08:43
a1ord53-when I look back at all the announcements since the takeover/merger, there don't seem to be any that are new, major money earners. The company seems to have been treading water, at best, and has the cost of the impending litigation to come. The company has changed tack but there is no evidence, so far, of any progress. Polaris has got a very optimistic longer term view which I largely share but, for those who don't, there seems very little incentive to buy at the moment. I think the widely varying broker estimates are an indication of the uncertainty.
alexchry
18/9/2018
08:14
Short sellers or sellers again trying beat dead Vec again and again. I dont understand why major shareholders just bid it up snd squeze these shorts ? Any explanations ?
a1ord53
17/9/2018
15:44
Another shorter has dropped out - one left at 0.6%
justiceforthemany
17/9/2018
10:52
fhmktg-very small rise on very low volume so doubt there was any comment in the press this weekend. There seems to be little interest in VEC at the moment and analysts' predictions are all over the place. Only expected news this year is the result of the ph3 trial but I hope we also get news of some new deals, we need something to put a rocket under the share price
alexchry
17/9/2018
10:27
Steady buying to start the week...was there some press comment over the weekend?
fhmktg
16/9/2018
16:26
Better buying into opti they have 42% share holding In sbtx but does look promising back to Vectura finally a green day let’s hope this is the start of some kind of recovery.
best1467
14/9/2018
15:04
Good for them, now stop ramping and go away!
polaris
14/9/2018
13:07
Another small pharma company SBTX is gonna have his human trials next week or so!
costax1654x
13/9/2018
14:39
To quote the original (and the best) House of Cards Francis Urquhart: 'You might very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment'
polaris
13/9/2018
13:53
Yes, but the question is why? Imo the share price manipulation that's been going on for so long now... can only be attributed to GSK wanting to keep their options open ended at present. Imo GSK will want to keep the VEC share price well down low until the IP legal issues are resolved, but also and probably much more importantly... in conjunction with the next step... which is what GSK cant fail to perceive what is an obvious upcoming 'clear and present danger' to their future expected £multi-billion revenues from their Ellipta range. That allegation does mean of course that it's GSK that are and have been, in the 'background' behind the manipulation... with a view to keeping their options open for a low as possible take out, probably by the latest next spring... in order to completely remove VEC from the game board. The one saving grace imo is if it wasn't for these obvious manipulations... VEC's value would naturally be at a rather higher level than it currently is... and it's that value that will win out in the end.
dontay
13/9/2018
13:01
Another dubious UT this am at 76.55, way above any other trades for the day. However, it nicely sets up a candle showing selling pressure and a resistance. It was for 25 shares... No other AT trade is above 74.9. I don't count broker transfers, O trades, as they are off the automatic order book.
polaris
12/9/2018
19:33
Yep, we know it was always gonna be a longish haul... but was hoping the positiveness of a reasonable set of results might have given at least a consolidation back to around 80-85p level today, but the high level of sells logged late pm are continuing unabated. Not much incentive for anyone to buy knowing that the share price is gonna be continually knocked back late in the day.Some of these brokers targets are around twice the current share price level, I wonder why they bother... the chance of that happening anytime soon would be a fine thing.
dontay
12/9/2018
17:11
No sells then????!
gswredland
12/9/2018
09:09
JPMorgan overweight 142p Citigroup buy 155 Numis buy 160p Shore capital Hold 78p Peelhunt Hold 111p RBC market performer 92p
a1ord53
11/9/2018
21:52
GSK will at least in part be of that view. £5m+ in fees over 12 months is nothing to them. It is material to a smaller company. That is their leverage to push for an out of court settlement that suits them. VEC are sticking to their guns but would obviously prefer not to go to court if that can be agreed on favourable terms. I expect it to go to court, what happens from there is rather in the lap of the gods with the US law system. If VEC lose then they lose the IP and the legal costs...and some face IMO. If they win, particularly in the US, they will get the lost royalties (£13-15m p.a. at last count backdated to the renewal date), probably damages from loss of earnings and standing (this is the US!) and legal costs. In the longer term, then this is not core business. It's a bit like Exparel, nice while you have it but must end at some point. The younger products, those about to be launched and those under development are the now and the future. That all looks pretty good from where i am sitting...and yes, i have now listened to the webcast and this reinforces MY investment case and timeline (i underline MY here as it will not be the same for everyone). regards, Paul
polaris
11/9/2018
19:50
Not sure what happened must be losing the plot anyway thanks for the responses ,Not sure that there is much chance of a out of court settlement on terms that would be favourable to Vectura. As far as saving costs if we have already spent 2.5 million how much more are we looking at is the worry going forward unless we win the case then it’s imaterial.
best1467
11/9/2018
17:53
Suprised no questions ref GSK litigation for me a considerable issue digging down into the numbers 2107 1/2 million provision H1 2018 it was 2Million provision an explanation into what exactly the money as gone into achieving at this point ,I can’t imagine they are paying legal fees in advance of the hearing. Another issue is the cappped nine million per year royalties which were with GSK from the skypharma days I have not looked back at the dates but I was under the impression that agreement was only in place prior to the merger yet it is mentioned it will soon be ending.
best1467
11/9/2018
16:24
best1467-there was a question regarding GSK litigation asking about settling before the court case and hearing. The answer was that VEC would like to do that to save legal expenses.
alexchry
11/9/2018
15:48
The VEC IP for the Ellipta series (SKP IP) is on the formulation side only and is capped at £9m - £3m per chemcial entity. As with all things, this will be covered by patents until expiry. It looks like the first of the patents expires next year. This may also be covered in the legal challenges as the initial GSK case is to challenge the IP in the EU. This may well be the legacy SKP IP. No product lasts forever and IP on formulation and delivery is relatively easy to copy once it has expired, when looking at single patents. The art here is in the multi-patents for delivery devices. The IP on Advair ran out in 2011 but it has taken years for anyone to get close to getting a device to market that does not infringe other patent families. In these results, VEC list that GSK have something like 14 patents on the Ellipta delivery device, so getting an AB-substitutable device that does not infringe any of these, while also delivering an equivalent dose, is not straight forward. VEC are at the forefront of this type of device design and validation. There has been very little that is truly new in terms of API in the last 10 years in respiratory. It's all about how it is delivered and the combi-therapies.
polaris
11/9/2018
15:41
best1467 - you pay the legal fees upfront. GSK have the advantage of having in-house teams. I expect that VEC require external support from patent experts and this does not come cheap. This is the nub of the issue between VEC and GSk and so you will want to employ the best minds, as IP is king. What you will see is that if the findings are for VEC then there may be a multi-part settlement that includes payment of fees incurred to defend the IP. They need to be expensed to be claimed. Bear in mind as well that VEC are preparing for a hearing in the EU and a jury-based trial in the US.
polaris
11/9/2018
15:31
Thank you Polaris for all this hard work! Not among my successful shares at the moment, but willing to wait for your confidence to be vindicated.
brucie5
11/9/2018
15:20
Suprised no questions ref GSK litigation for me a considerable issue digging down into the numbers 2107 1/2 million provision H1 2018 it was 2Million provision an explanation into what exactly the money as gone into achieving at this point ,I can’t imagine they are paying legal fees in advance of the hearing. Another issue is the cappped nine million per year royalties which were with GSK from the skypharma days I have not looked back at the dates but I was under the impression that agreement was only in place prior to the merger yet it is mentioned it will soon be ending.
best1467
11/9/2018
13:23
Yes i agree-so many variablesIf we took £35m as a reasonable guesstimate for adjusted EBITDA that's an EV of £525m at 15x so £600m with the cash ie share price of 86p with the pipeline in for freeThis is now a classic value play with high growth sprinklings-far more upside than downsideSo short term target goodbye to shorters and modest re-rate to mid 80s followed by positive 4th qtr newsflow and back to 100p+All very much IMHO, DYOR etc
richman777114
Chat Pages: 309  308  307  306  305  304  303  302  301  300  299  298  Older
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