Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Vectura Group LSE:VEC London Ordinary Share GB00B01D1K48 ORD 0.025P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.55p +0.68% 81.35p 81.55p 81.70p 82.00p 80.10p 82.00p 1,012,387 16:35:02
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 148.0 -102.2 -12.6 - 552.31

Vectura Share Discussion Threads

Showing 7426 to 7445 of 7450 messages
Chat Pages: 298  297  296  295  294  293  292  291  290  289  288  287  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
18/6/2018
15:47
Don't worry it will do ,and then take us on a long slow ride north.
pooroldboy55
18/6/2018
15:16
This is taking such a long time to fall back to high 70s.
rathean
13/6/2018
18:28
Results of trials later this year are P2 and P3 so not Pulmatrix.
alexchry
13/6/2018
17:51
Thanks Paul-deep insightful analysis as ever
richman777114
13/6/2018
17:47
Could be VR475 for US looking at the JPM healthcare presentation from earlier in the year - that is listed as being in phase I, for severe adult asthma rather than COPD, but it's the only one i can see that is US and not partnered. That would fit into the enhanced delivery of known medicines category, rather than a pure generic. edit No - it's VR410 according to the September 2017 agreement That makes it the TBD (partnering for marketing) generic in the JPM presentation from earlier in the year There is a link but it is on one of this site's competitors so it will not link! search "pulmatrix vectura" and it is on of the top hits
polaris
13/6/2018
17:34
Phase I is a long way from possible submission and approval. However, there is a partnership with VEC for development here. I do not know if this is in addition to parallel developments in-house or not. VEC generics trial results are due this year - they are developing generics of both Symbicort and Spiriva (we know that from the results presentation). I am assuming that the results from the phase II and III studies underway are Symbicort and Spiriva...i may be wrong and the VEC development is actually the partnership with Pulmatrix, so only phase I. I don't have my notes to hand at the moment. I'll delve later. I would not get excited about anything until well into phase III. Even then there are no guarantees that FDA or European medicines agency will approve use - just look at the on-going saga with generic Advair! Generics will arrive for all major respiratory at some point in time, it's just the cost to develop, the likelyhood of approval and the actual market size when the generic launches...just!! Being 1st to market with a generic is a massive advantage over 2nd or 3rd, but you need the partner with the marketing and sales reps on the ground to be a success. VEC have links to Hikma, Mundipharma, Sandoz and GSK for different products. Without the support infrastructure, even the best drug will fail after approval and launch. With the change in priorities that VEC announced at the Fy results, it will be interesting to see what happens here. There is nothing from VEC so far regarding the announcement from Pulmatrix. regards, Paul
polaris
13/6/2018
16:19
Better result from PUR0200 than their competitor product Spiriva.
blueflex2
13/6/2018
15:23
Polaris,do you see positive result of Pulmatrix Pur0200 phase 1 study as significant for Vec?Regards,Jonathan
richman777114
12/6/2018
14:55
Turns out the article i read on Sandoz still targetting generic Advair launch in 2018 was outdated. The Q1 results from Novartis do contain a statement on generic Advair that another study is required and they 'have a line of sight on launch by end 2019'. We already know that Hikma need further trials and expect a resubmission 'as early in 2019 as possible'. The question there will be what type of submission is required, whether a normal ANDA or a fast track submission. Best to assume the normal route so a 6-month reply timescale post accepted date. Mylan remain somewhat of a unknown to me. They seemed to target Sandoz/Novartis with their petition to prevent approvals of generics based on pharmacokinetic bioequivalence, which was rejected. As they received the earliest CRL from the FDA for a generic, then they should be ahead of the game with any resubmission and possible launch. There is an expected FDA reply to Mylan this month, though i am unsure what it is based on: further studies, new submission? Probably the most revealing aspect will be the Q2 GSK results next month and the comparison US Advair sales Q1 v Q2. There were heavy revenue falls in the Q1 results and i expect the trend to continue (reference for Q1 is £229M in US). Even assuming no further sales erosion in the US then the market value for Advair is now around £900-1000M p.a. A generic entrant will likely lead to a price reduction of 50%, reducing the total market size to £500M region. A generic can expect to get 30-50% of in-market sales from incumbent, possibly more depending on further generic launches. This gives a possible 1st generic total market value of £150-£250M. With a reasonable agreement on royalties and manufacturing then a company like VEC can expect revenues approaching 20% of total market value with a total margin of 30-40%. So if first to market then its around £30-50M in revenues and £9-20M in bottom line. If further generics appear (lets say all three are approved) then i would expect pricing pressure to reduce market to around £400M with the split of sales among the four companies of 40, 30, 20 and 10%, depending on who gets to market first. If Hikma/VEC are last then you would expect total sales around £40M and value to partner of £12-16M in revenues and £3.6-6.4M in bottom line...not so pretty. Of course, pricing pressure will be number of market entrants dependent and the total market value does depend on no further erosion of Advair US sales pre-launch. The total revenue/bottom line value to a generic entrant will also depend on who gets there first. We know Sandoz are aiming for end 2019, Hikma/VEC will probably get there Q1 2020, depending on the resubmission date but, for now, we know nothing about Mylan. We also do not know what position GSK will take in the market once generics arrive. In some cases they will withdraw entirely as the pricing pressures could be so high as to make the margins too low. My 50-60% guestimates could be underestimates and any larger price pressure will drive down possible value to a generic entrant further. There is some lining to the cloud - approval and launch in EU and RoW categories as well. The total market value for Advair/seretide in Q1 was £566M (say £2Bn annual sales) and so the revenue/bottom line could be improved by up to 50%. However, each submission will take more time and money. GSK are the only happy ones here. They get the added Advair revenues and the time to market newer products to patients. I think several of the other generics that VEC are developing might end up with higher value than generic Advair. If they can be first to market with generics for Spiriva and/or Symbicort (combined US sales of almost $3Bn) then that would be a huge boost. With the Ellipta generics possibility, which have current value £207M in US and £386M worldwide in Q1 and expected to reach total sales of over £2Bn by 2022, VEC has an unprecedented opportunity. The Q3 update on the technology and partnering developments will be key here.What are the possible timescales? VEC stated possibility for submission to FDA in 2019. We need further information here on timescales and costs. If they have a realistic chance of getting to market with the right partner in late 2020-2021 then it would be transformative for VEC. It is for this reason that i expect corporate action in the next 12-18 months, as the timescales and likely outcomes crystallise. I am, without doubt, biased as i hold over 100k shares, so please take all of the above with the necessary pinch of salt. ;-) regards, Paul
polaris
08/6/2018
15:08
I'm still adopting the slowly, slowly approach here. Picking up small amounts here and there as i build past 100k holding. I have been looking around at some of the partners and the progress on certain top-line products. I am convinced that the next 18 months will see nice increases in the revenues from Flutiform (particularly RoW and Japan) and Ultibro, though some of the gains will be offset from likely losses to the royalties from Exparel, as patents expire. The main royalty earners will then be all products with multi-year protections, safeguarding base revenue streams. Flutiform manufacturing and supply chain revenues also likely to increase as new product lines and markets open up. The chinese trials and the possibility of paediatric indications in Japan and possibly Europe are nice signs. On the Advair front, i think Mylan are due another FDA reply this month and Sandoz are still talking about generics in 2018 to the US market, although i think this is fantasy. They might get the secondary approval for launch, which is not a true generic status, like the products already marketed in Europe. They are substitutable but only after training as the delivery devices are significantly different. That line is much harder in the US than in Europe, due to the litigious nature of the country! Progress on trials for the various generics for the top selling asthma and COPD products in the US are due results in Q3 and Q4, hopefully with movement on partnering. I expect some movement on the generic device developments as well, probably at the H1 results sometime in August. We already know about the litigation against GSK that will be heard in the EU and US in Q4 2018. That will be very revealing IMO, as the IP that VEC is fighting to protect is on the formulation and delivery side. If rulings are against then it makes it much more likely that VEC will succeed in a fully subsitutable device for the US market for Ellipta. GSK will be treading a very fine line and i can see no obviously positive outcome for them, but that really is IMO. Time will tell. Really it is a steady as she goes here over the summer months. I would expect the trading range to stay tight while the shorting funds exit and then a move up to the 90p region, where there is another resistance. That should match the timescale of the falling trendline reaching the 90p level from the highs of April 2017 and Jan 2018. I hope to add in small tranches over the next 2-3 months and reach the 130-150k region by the time this chart formation starts to play out. regards, Paul
polaris
08/6/2018
11:36
Sadly, indeed, I had to sell 10k yesterday. I was hoping the share price would have recovered a bit more since the positive noises at the AGM.
alexchry
08/6/2018
11:31
Yes big reductions possibly a result of the CEO saying FCA were involved and suspicious share price movements but sadly this not reflected in share price yet.
justiceforthemany
07/6/2018
22:59
Something has changed! Shorts are disappearing! Shortracker showing only 3 funds and totals of only 1.8%.
dontay
07/6/2018
20:05
Yawn... makes watching paint dry seem exhilarating
saxula
07/6/2018
17:37
Stuck in a very tight trading range.
insideryou
07/6/2018
13:19
Is this being primed for a takeover Hikma now 50% higher than lows of past 12 months Vec stagnant Not sure who would want to buy vec
specul82
04/6/2018
15:57
Board is quiet. I will take that as a good thing. And share price taking a sabbatical. I will take that as a good thing too.
richtea2517
30/5/2018
13:20
Traders moving this up and down, not investors imo.
insideryou
26/5/2018
13:30
Hi diesel, I think it's reasonable to expect that after all the discussions that have gone on with the FDA, ALL competitors will have a much better understanding of what the FDA actually require of them, so I'm expecting Mylan to now get what they have asked for. They would really have to be a bunch of numpties if they fail again! Let's hope they are! IMO the problem for Hikma/VEC if Mylan get it... will therefore be the distance and timescale between them and Mylan in launching on the USA market. Hikma have to complete a clinical trial rerun, that has to take its course and there are no short cuts for that. They then have to make a new submission when the results of the trial are known. It normally takes around 10 months to get the results from the FDA... so any actual approval of a new submission will not happen till towards the end of next year at the earliest. If Mylan DO get approval in the next few weeks and launch on the market later this summer then the population within the USA market that are looking for a cheaper Advair alternative will have been swapped over to the Mylan version by their medical practitioners... and their needs will have long been been satisfied. Hikma/VEC will also no doubt also eventually get approved... but I fear the race will have been lost to them by then!
dontay
26/5/2018
00:44
Not sure Dontay, if Mylan's gets approved the market may well believe that the chances for Hikma/Vec is also raised, after all these submissions will have been based on detailed discussions with the FDA to ensure that the end points were likely to be met.
diesel
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