Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[fraserdean] 14/11/2019 09:25

Tullow managemnet - have mishandled this badly.


Ghana - gas - it's a joint venture and all those involved have to agree to pay, this is not the case here with one partner delaying.

Tullow are tendering for a load of work at TEN and Jubilee next year at the moment to lift production, government says it is altering terms to ease tie-backs also after pressure from Aker and potentially for Tano shallow finds.

Uganda - last week the minister "implored" Tullow, Total and CNOOC to come back to the table.

Guyana - there is not enought info avaialble yet to take an informed view.

[leoneobull] 14/11/2019 09:13

I'm going to wait a day or so and watch.

[stupmy] 14/11/2019 08:42

Pretty well at 139/140 now. I think we'll see that. Maybe it will hold as support. Just have to wait. I think to believe we'd open up at 160/170 is odd. That was significant news. If you believe that this share price will suddenly bounce, you must believe there is a reason for that to happen. To get back to 160/170 now quickly, needs news. TLW is not necessarily now the most compelling bargain on the market. You should ask yourselves what good news is expected and when if you want to use a fundamental approach. There could be more bad news to come. If that were to happen, downside risk remains. I'll stay on the sidelines until I see evidence that the price has found what the market believes is reasonable value. 139/140 could act as a good support. Bad news on Carapa-1 or TLW indicating they don't think that the current Guyana wells are commercial could see the downside gap filled (85p). Did someone post that Odey was looking for a price in that region?

[xxnjr] 14/11/2019 08:32

They are idiots rationaleee. Have one of the lowest cost offshore fields on the planet (Jubilee), but rather than developing it in an efficient manner, instead spend the money on vanity drilling all over the globe, with the cash going down plugged holes. Now they cannot even afford to sort out Jubilee top side issues in a timely manner, consequently the debt ratio is going UP!

[rationaleee] 14/11/2019 08:18

Disappointed in TLW.

How can they claim in an RNS that Guyana could be 'potentially transformational' without even knowing if the two discoveries would be commercial or not?! How come TLW became so sloppy?!

Should have taken heed of Kosmos saying in their Q3 results that production at TEN would be around 62kbpd for 2020 and around 95kbpd for Jubilee.

Had thought with Guyana, TLWs curse of dry wells had lifted but guess it was wrong. TLW should have made an acquisition as I always said - TLW has not taken advantage of this oil price downturn as other E&Ps have. Still a strong business but without as much cash generation potential.

Although a 27% drop in share price is justifiable assuming a 20% jump for Guyana discoveries unwinding and 8%-10% accounting for production downgrade. Still a shame and disappointed in holding TLW!

[pro_s2009] 14/11/2019 08:17

Comments by Hargreaves

Tullow Oil (TLW) has proved ‘not all oil is made equal’ as its latest discovery in Guyana turns out to be low-quality, sulphurous oil, says Hargreaves Lansdown.

The miner’s latest discovery disappointed investors, as did news that full year production is set to come in below guidance after drilling problems in Ghana that will affect free cashflow. The shares tumbled 27.3% to 149.6p yesterday.

Analyst Nicholas Hyett said the oil found in Guyana was expensive to refine and ‘significantly undermines the commercial value of Tullow’s Guyana assets’.

Production issues in its West African oilfields combined with lower oil prices means ‘free cashflow isn’t going to meet management’s expectations’.

‘Given the group has recently started paying a dividend, but still has some work to do on debt reduction, that’s far from ideal,’ said Hyett.

‘Throw in troubles closing a deal to reduce its stake in oil fields in Uganda, and 2019 is turning into a bit of an annus horribilis for Tullow shareholders.’

[leoneobull] 14/11/2019 08:09

Red x 3 days before recovery?

[costax1654x] 14/11/2019 07:40

Stop barking

[pro_s2009] 14/11/2019 07:39

abarclay - yes it can be.

If the oil is high sulfur and high acidity its worth is much less, only a few places can handle it.

Then the API......if its ultra heavy then it will need so many wells that the IRR will be far too low.......so nobody will commercialise it.

You want at least 20% IRR.......notice that ECO are bluffing about profitable ways.......thats bull........what is the IRR ?

If the IRR is low nobody will touch it, it will be like Bentley in the North Sea - left in the ground as its just not worth the effort as you potentially make very little for a lot of outlay and risk. People should be asking ECO what the IRR is on those profitable scenarios they are bluffing about now........

[pro_s2009] 14/11/2019 07:36

Watching....the debt is a worry of course, and now the management are as well.

Keep watching thats all. Wait for the next news.

[subsurface] 14/11/2019 07:16

PRO whats your idea for Tullow then?

[abarclay] 14/11/2019 06:44

Is the high sulphur a killer

[abarclay] 14/11/2019 06:42

Ghana Looks finished

[pro_s2009] 14/11/2019 05:38

To quote Socrates and its very relevant on the internet.

“Strong minds discuss ideas, average minds discuss events, weak minds discuss people.”

.

[leoneobull] 14/11/2019 04:33

Well ENQ are selling their heavy crude at 14 api from Kraken....and getting a premium to Brent. So ya never know...

[subsurface] 14/11/2019 00:47

On Ghana Gas take or pay like ENI

[knowing] 14/11/2019 00:33

Why are people just regurgitating the same news in desperation?

[xxnjr] 14/11/2019 00:12

Check out the onshore heavy oil fields in Suriname.

p23 of

In 1980 Staatsolie was established and the first commercially produced oil came to surface in 1982 from the onshore Tambaredjo Field, near Paramaribo. Crude is produced from Paleocene sands from a depth varying from 260 to 425m and the STOIIP of this field is 700 MMbo. Since 1982, 100 MMb of Saramacca Crude, a heavy sweet oil (16° API) but low on vanadium and sulfur, have been produced. Remaining reserves are estimated at approximately 80 MMbo.

In addition, the nearby Calcutta and the Tambaredjo North West Fields have been on stream since 2003 and 2009 respectively. They are producing from Eocene and Miocene stratigraphic traps, and the total present day production is 16,000 bopd.

Major issue. Requires one thousand six hundred (1,600) production wells!

p11 of

[hsfinch] 13/11/2019 23:45

They must have known was the case this all along. I saw a quote from McDade at the time ...something like "It looks like we're going to be in Guyana for the long term....blah blah blah." You can't trust oilies. I've been making money from shorting oilies for a while based a simple strategy...look for downside opportunities whenever an oilie talks it's share price up.

[jimarilo] 13/11/2019 23:30

East of Shetland Bentley 10-12 degree API and still in the ground

[xxnjr] 13/11/2019 22:44

Sounds pretty much off the scale. These are some of the heaviest sour crudes:-

Kraken Heavy Sour: S 0.7% 14 API
Rubiales Heavy Sour: S 1.33% 12.7 API
Castilla Heavy Sour: S 1.41% 17.4 API
Venezuela 2 Heavy Sour: S2.50% 16.0 API
Sqepuri Albanian Heavy Sour: S3.50% 9.0 API
Venezuela DCO16 Heavy Sour: S4.10% 16.0 API

Better get MODEC to build an FPUSO {Floating/Production/Upgrading/Storage/Offloading}!

On Ghana beats me why they don't just inject the gas into a nearby uncommercial gas discovery if there is one, which there may well be, as they have drilled quite a few technical/uncommercial wells in the area.