Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[onjohn] 13/11/2019 21:15

PLUG AND ABANDON

[pro_s2009] 13/11/2019 20:43

Wow....could be as low as 10API and it looks like not just high sulfur, but VERY HIGH sulfur.

That very high sulfur will be a killer with such a very low API oil as well.





......A Tullow representative confirmed that laboratory results of the oil at the Jethro-1 and Joe-1 wells indicated that the specific gravity was as heavy 10-15 API and of very high sulfur content........

[leoneobull] 13/11/2019 20:27

Rte Ireland Tullow Oil has cut its 2019 oil production outlookTullow Oil has today cut its outlook for production and cash flow because of persistent problems in Ghana, while it also revealed that the quality of oil recently discovered in Guyana was heavy in nature. The news sent the exploration company's shares down more than 20% in London trade.Commenting for the first time on the oil discovered in Jethro-1 and Joe-1 in the South American country, Tullow said it was categorised as heavy crude, with high sulphur content, which would make developing it much harder than if it were medium or light crude.This adds to the company's woes as it still faces problems at its operations in Ghana because of mechanical issues at the Jubilee field and a delay in completing a well at the TEN offshore field. The issues have prompted a third production cut this year. Analysts said the production downgrade was bad enough, although to some extent expected, but the additional news from South America about the crude quality made it worse. The London-listed company now expects annual oil output to be 87,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd), down from an earlier forecast of 89-93,000 bopd. With global oil prices stuck around $60 a barrel and production taking a hit, Tullow expects free cash flow in 2019 to be around $350m, down from an earlier forecast of $400m. The company said it was still focussed on reducing debt.Tullow's chief executive Paul McDade said in September the company had plans to drill three or more oil exploration wells in Guyana next year after the company's second offshore oil discovery in the South American country. Tullow Oil discovered the Jethro-1 in August and hit oil at the Joe-1 well in the Orinduik block in September, and is currently drilling the Carapa well. Tullow's stock, which surged on the news from those oil discoveries, shed as much as 22% of its value today - touching its lowest level in more than two years. "Tullow and the Joint Venture Partners are assessing the commercial viability of these discoveries considering the quality of the oil, alongside the high-quality reservoir sands and strong overpressure," it said in a statement.In its pursuit of additional prospects and lighter oil in the area, the focus of the Guyana exploration now falls on the Carapa well and its ability to open a new Cretaceous play, potentially with lighter and less sulphur oil quality, the analysts added.

[leoneobull] 13/11/2019 20:24

Telegraph Shares fell 22pc to 159p, in stark contrast to the 12pc rise when the company first announced the South American discovery in August. Nicholas Hyett at Hargreaves Lansdown commented: "This is a salutary reminder that not all oil is made equal. "At the same time problems in the massive West African fields has seen production slip up – and combined with lower oil prices that means free cash flow isn't going to meet management's expectations."Given the group has recently started paying a dividend, but still has some work to do on debt reduction, that's far from ideal. Throw in troubles closing a deal to reduce its stake in oil fields in Uganda, and 2019 is turning into a bit of an annus horribilis for Tullow shareholders."Shares in Eco Atlantic, one of Tullow's partners on the project, also fell by 38pc on Wednesday. 

[leoneobull] 13/11/2019 20:23

November 13, 2019 11:52 am by Nathalie Thomas in EdinburghShares in Tullow Oil plunged to a two-year low on Wednesday after the London-listed explorer warned that two significant discoveries in waters off Guyana contained heavy oil, prompting warnings that the projects would be difficult to commercialise.The company's shares fell 23 per cent to 159.3p - the lowest since September 2017 - by mid-morning after it announced the results of an analysis into the oil quality at the Jethro and Joe discoveries off the coast of the South American country. Oils recovered from both wells were heavy crudes with a high sulphur content, Tullow said. Such varieties are generally more expensive to extract and transport. Refiners prize light, sweet crudes and the heavy variety also tends to trade at a discount.The FTSE 250 company said on Wednesday that it and its partners were assessing "the commercial viability of these discoveries" in light of the analysis.Its partners include France's Total, which has a 25 per cent stake in the Guyana discoveries, and Eco Atlantic, whose shares are listed in both the UK and Canada and which owns 15 per cent. The remaining 60 per cent is held by Tullow.London-listed shares in Eco Atlantic were down 51 per cent at 65p by mid-morning, even though it sought to strike a more optimistic tone, saying the quality of the oils in Guyana were "not dissimilar" to similar heavy crudes produced commercially in other regions such as the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.It said the partners had sought the advice of third-party consultants with expertise in the development of such oil varieties."The company remains optimistic in considering the development scenarios and as the project progresses will define further information on plans and timing," Eco Atlantic added in a statement.Analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove said in a note that the oil quality "risks the commerciality of both prospects despite excellent prospects.Al Stanton, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said he expected investors to now be "increasingly cautious" on Tullow stock, which had received a significant boost in August when the first Guyana discovery had been announced.Tullow recently suffered another setback when a $900m deal to sell a sizeable stake in an undeveloped project in Uganda fell apart after a tax dispute with the government of the east African country.The company also on Wednesday revised down for the third time its forecast for full-year production. It expects production to average out at 87,000 barrels of oil a day, down from previous revised guidance of 89,000-93,000 b/d, due to lower than expected output from Ghana, where it has two key projects, the Jubilee and Ten fields

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/11/2019 19:50

High reservoir temperature? It's largely a function of the depth of the reservoir...... Anyone know of deep oilfields with cool oil?

[onjohn] 13/11/2019 19:36

Will they Plug and Abandon Ghana

What will Plug and Abandonment cost??

[alfiex] 13/11/2019 19:17

Post 5495 captain kirk on ECO board sums it up nicely, its not very open and transparent from Tullow when they new it was heavy oil with high sulpher content.

[dealy] 13/11/2019 18:56

The idea of paying dividends whilst carrying a large amount of debt is ludicrous. Priority should be to reduce debt.So many corporate disasters in the UK due to dividends being paid whilst carrying debt

[hoper2] 13/11/2019 18:28

TLW had recently introduced a dividend policy of giving $100 million back to shareholders every year. With lower than expected free cash flow and production, it's hard to see that happening. A very disappointing update.

[zingaro] 13/11/2019 18:05

From the HL's share research today

.....Fortunately Tullow's no longer living hand to mouth.
A few years ago, Tullow would likely have been compelled to sell its interest in the assets to shift some of its debts. It may still opt to monetise some of the field now, but recent progress on deleveraging means it's under less pressure to do so.
Prices of over $56 a barrel are locked in for a significant portion of its anticipated production in the next two years. Production in the core Ghanaian wells isn't rising as fast as hoped, but it should still be on an upward trend, with operating costs dropping to as little as $10 per barrel.
That should underpin the group's policy of paying $100m per year in dividends, plus special distributions where appropriate. As things stand, that implies a prospective yield of around 3.7%. If Tullow does make substantial finds elsewhere and can successfully bring production online, it can look forward to improved cash flows in the future. That could translate to higher dividends.
Of course, there are still potential trip wires ahead.
While significantly lower than back in 2015/16, leverage is still a little higher than we think is entirely comfortable so the group remains exposed to a reversal in oil prices.
However, we think Tullow looks in much better health than it has for some time. Further results from other wells in Guyana are expected later in the year, and the group also has early stage projects in Argentina, Cote d'Ivoire and Peru.

[costax1654x] 13/11/2019 17:55

Jethro-1's 8,500-psi (586-bar) reservoir (2,600-psi/179-bar overpressure) has the advantage of natural drive efficiency, Eco said. The high reservoir temperature of 94°C (201°F) and an estimated flowing well head temperature of 90°C (194°F) are both positive in terms of oil mobility and should provide an advantage at the floating production facility, the company added.Colin Kinley, Eco's COO, said: "The fact that the oil is already hot in the reservoir, and mobile, and has high quality porous sand to travel through, helps to eliminate a great part of the conventional heavy oil challenge."Having 8,500 psi in the porous warm formation is an added advantage to drive the oil to the well. Horizontal well technology can allow excellent access to these thick fields and generally reduces the need for multiple additional wells, leading to lower development cost per barrel."11/13/2019

[1224saj] 13/11/2019 17:15

Nice positive article on interactive investor

[jugears] 13/11/2019 17:13

abarclay always difficult to predict where an share price will open but IMO if this was going any lower it would have done today.But we will see tomorrow.

[costax1654x] 13/11/2019 17:12

Yes,maybe 50 p only for u to buy,and 10 min later 200% rise!Only for u

[jugears] 13/11/2019 17:07

By Tullows volatile nature these could easily go back up tomorrow by what they have fallen today, That said they could fall tomorrow, but I think the bargain hunters will have out in force today & tomorrow because there is money to be made at this price,My only concern is that Tullow doesn't appear to be managed as well as it used to be but not really a follower & only bought today as I see a quick return on my investment.

[abarclay] 13/11/2019 17:02

Has it still got the 2.8 billion pounds of debt to fefinance

[abarclay] 13/11/2019 17:01

Will open lower tomorrow

I’m thinking perhaps 130

[onedb1] 13/11/2019 17:00

Harsh reaction today I have to say . I don't hold at the moment but as poster below says it will bring out buyers . Will follow more closely

[jugears] 13/11/2019 16:52

I Think there will be some very happy buyers today at these prices, I know I certainly am. Remember when these were about £15 many years ago.

[badger36] 13/11/2019 16:46

Looking after themselves

[subsurface] 13/11/2019 16:44

2 pounds for christmas if we are lucky Total did well to sell down to QP? Time for a sea change at Tullow on the last years performance,
Tullow don,t have the experience or cash required for Guyana,not sure what they are good at these days.

[dealy] 13/11/2019 16:43

I always, always make the same mistake: I see the first drop as a bargain yet miss the chance to buy much lower.This will be my epitaph

[monopoli44] 13/11/2019 16:35

Big Bounce tomorrow to at least 160 and may be to 170.